It was a season of extremes in MLB. In his debut year with the Dodgers, Shohei Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50, while the White Sox broke the record for most losses in a season during the modern era.
Both had a major impact on the MLB postseason. Ohtani’s addition pushed the Dodgers to 98 wins and another NL West title. The team enters the playoffs as the favorite to win it all.
The White Sox fell out of postseason contention in mid-April, but the rest of the division benefitted. The Guardians won the AL Central, and both the Royals and Tigers snuck into the final spots as the season wound down.
Elsewhere, the Yankees and Astros once again reached October, which many expected. They’ll be joined by the Orioles, who finished as the AL’s top wild-card team.
Over in the NL, the Phillies coasted to a division title in the East, while the Brewers surprisingly won the Central despite trading away Corbin Burnes before the start of the 2024 season. The Padres found themselves in a similar spot, securing the top wild-card position in the NL despite dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees.
The final two NL wild-card spots were split between the Mets and Braves on Monday, as each team won a game in their Hurricane Helene-necessitated doubleheader to knock the Diamondbacks out of the postseason picture.
It all sets up an exciting postseason slate. So, after a full season — and an extra day — of baseball, who will win it all? Below, Sporting News predicts the MLB postseason, from Ohtani’s biggest moment to the World Series champion.
MORE: Everything to know about the 2024 MLB playoffs
MLB playoff picks, predictions 2024
Which wild-card team is the biggest threat to win it all?
Dan Treacy: The Dodgers and Phillies might be the top seeds in the National League, but the Padres have looked like the best team in the NL since the All-Star break. San Diego’s bullpen has been excellent after a couple of aggressive deadline moves, and the rotation is in terrific shape with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish back in the fold alongside Michael King and Dylan Cease. If Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado continue hitting like they have in recent weeks, the Padres are well-equipped to go the distance and win their first championship.
Bryan Murphy: Every part of me wants to jump on the train and go with the Tigers. Teams that win in October just have that “it” factor and Detroit has “it” at the perfect time. Instead, I’m going with the NL version in the Padres, who also turned things around in the second half after a slow start and have looked like one of the most complete teams in baseball.
Chris Cwik: On paper, the AL looks weak, which is why I’m going with Baltimore. Are the Yankees or Astros a great deal better than the Orioles? I don’t think so. Armed with a dominant lineup and an ace in Corbin Burnes, the Orioles should skate out of the wild-card round. Once that happens, Baltimore needs to contend with either New York or Houston, and while both teams are solid, the Orioles can hang with them.
David Suggs: The San Diego Padres. The Friars have a well-rounded roster capable of winning games in multiple ways. Mike Shildt’s lineup is teeming with consistency, while his rotation has a handful of Grade-A talents, including Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish. Ha-Seong Kim’s absence is a concern. Still, San Diego is well-equipped to make a deep tournament run this year.
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Which top-three seed is overrated and why?
Dan Treacy: At what point do we become concerned about the Phillies? They’re hovering near .500 since the start of July, the rotation hasn’t been very consistent behind Zack Wheeler and the offensive stars aren’t exactly hitting like stars. Philadelphia never needed to panic after building such a cushion in the standings early in the season, but it might be hard to find that early-year form under the bright lights of October after three months of mediocrity.
Bryan Murphy: The Brewers have been an incredible team, led by first-year head coach Pat Murphy. They play the game the right way and are built like a club that can win postseason baseball. However, this is a Milwaukee club notorious in recent years for a lack of longevity in the playoffs. The last postseason win came in 2021, and the last series victory came in 2018. Until they shake off that stereotype, it’s hard to see a deep postseason run with a team lacking true star power — with all due respect to Willy Adames.
Chris Cwik: Are the Yankees really that good? The watered-down playoff restructure likely had the opposite effect MLB intended. While the last few days of the regular season were fun, fewer teams really tried to go all out in the regular season. The Yankees won just 94 games, which led the AL. That’s a pitifully low number compared to years past. The Yankees are a good team, no doubt, but the lineup has experienced issues all season — outside Aaron Judge — and Clay Holmes has been shaky in the bullpen. Also, Aaron Boone still manages the team, and Yankees fans know how that usually goes.
David Suggs: The New York Yankees. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have sparkled this season and figure to keep the good times rolling in the postseason, while newcomers Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells have made their mark since arriving in the Big Apple. Still, the Pinstripers don’t quite inspire confidence. The drop-off in lineup quality after Chisholm and Wells is notable. And although New York has a cadre of decent arms to call on in relief, its rotation is still a bit murky. Gerrit Cole’s last start — a six-inning, five-strikeout masterpiece — does add some intrigue, however.
Who will be the breakout playoff star no one has heard of yet?
Dan Treacy: Get to know Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada. The 25-year-old former Cubs prospect had a 2.95 ERA in his first full MLB season, and the under-the-radar numbers were even better. Estrada had a sparkling 2.07 FIP and 13.9 K/9 rate, and he found his stride again down the stretch with a 0.84 ERA in September. It was two years ago that Robert Suarez’s breakout postseason helped end the Dodgers’ season, and Estrada’s ridiculous swing-and-miss ability could devastate a handful of lineups this October.
Bryan Murphy: Every year there is a standout closer or reliever that is simply lights out at the right time. Last year’s Rangers had Josh Sborz. The Astros had Ryan Pressly. In 2024, that’s going to be Padres closer Robert Suarez. He’s fourth in the league in saves with an 85.7 percent success rate. He had a rocky last few outings to end the regular season, but his arsenal is impressive, with a fastball that has the ability to touch triple digits.
Chris Cwik: Maybe it’s not bold enough to go with Brewers rookie Jackson Chourio, but he already doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. After a glacially slow start, Chourio lived up to the prospect hype. Over the second half of the season, he hit .310/.363/.552 and cut down on his strikeout rate. He earned a role at the top of the Brewers’ lineup and brings a devastating combination of power and speed to the club. Did I mention he’s just 20 years old?
David Suggs: Can I say Jackson Merrill? The Padres rookie is just the bee’s knees. He hits the ball hard – his 8.8 percent barrel rate is comparable to that of Byron Buxton and Kyle Schwarber. He’s a harrowing figure on the basepaths. And he’s one of the best defensive centerfielders in the sport. Expect this postseason to be a coronation of sorts for the NL Rookie of the Year contender.
MORE: How Shohei Ohtani made history in his first year with the Dodgers
What will be Shohei Ohtani’s biggest moment?
Dan Treacy: Ohtani should showcase plenty of power in his postseason debut, but the Dodgers season will eventually end with the former (and future) MVP … on deck. The bottom of Los Angeles’ lineup has been a question mark all season, and the Dodgers got a potential preview of an October nightmare when Ohtani was left on deck as Miguel Rojas grounded into a game-ending triple play against the Padres at the end of the regular season. The stage will be set for Ohtani to win a game for the Dodgers, but he won’t get the chance due to the team’s lesser hitters.
Bryan Murphy: Is it just me or does anyone else enter the playoffs thinking without a doubt that Ohtani is putting on a show every night? Ohtani is in a different kind of zone this season. He’s a viral moment waiting to happen, and to think, fans have yet to experience Ohtani postseason baseball. It certainly feels like this 2024 season is culminating in another big-time performance from the Japanese superstar. I’m counting on at least one walkoff home run in Los Angeles.
Chris Cwik: Ohtani can do everything, so his biggest, most fitting postseason moment should involve him manufacturing a key run all by himself. Imagine it’s the bottom of the 8th inning in a Game 7. Ohtani doubles, then steals third and then scores on a wild pitch to give the Dodgers the go-ahead run and eventual series win. All his tools should be on display in the postseason, so I can think of no better moment for Ohtani to prove his impact.
David Suggs: It’s easy to imagine Ohtani turning an outside fastball into smithereens during the postseason. But I reckon pitchers will employ a far more conservative approach when dealing him attempts. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohtani walks a ton, thereby setting himself up for some more steal attempts. I feel like Shohei will have a stolen base frenzy that leads to a Dodgers rally. I can’t tell you when that will happen, but I imagine his speed on the basepaths will have a lot of postseason hurlers shaking in their boots.
Which team will make it out of the NL?
Dan Treacy: The winner of a potential NLDS matchup between the Dodgers and Padres will be set up well to reach the World Series, and the Padres might have the edge right now. San Diego has played as well as any team in the NL down the stretch and hasn’t looked too intimidated against the Dodgers his season. Much like in 2022, the Padres’ bullpen will rise to the occasion and be the difference in a matchup with the Dodgers, and, this time, the rotation will handle either the Phillies or any other team that reaches the NLCS.
Bryan Murphy: Just because I think Ohtani will dominate doesn’t mean the Dodgers will win. A Padres victory sets up a divisional round matchup for the two NL rivals. San Diego went 8-5 against Los Angeles in the regular season, one of the few teams with a winning record against L.A. Despite losing Juan Soto and Blake Snell, San Diego is once again one of the best teams in baseball, thanks to the efforts of a superb pitching rotation, stellar bullpen and a red-hot Manny Machado. San Diego has the stars to handle a dominant Dodgers team.
Chris Cwik: It’s boring, but it’s the Dodgers. When healthy, the top of that lineup is far too elite. There’s no trio in baseball better than Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. While the team’s rotation has taken hits, it’s still plenty strong with Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto leading the way. It stinks to root for the team with the biggest payroll in the sport — unless you live in Los Angeles — but money matters in baseball.
David Suggs: The Los Angeles Dodgers. L.A. has been a freight train this year. Its conductor, Shohei Ohtani, can beat you in so many different ways, be that with his slugging and speed but also with an elite batter’s eye. Most of the big names on the roster have World Series experience and they’ll have homefield advantage throughout the postseason. It’s just hard to doubt a lineup that features Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith.
MORE: Full MLB schedule for every postseason game
Which team will make it out of the AL?
Dan Treacy: The Astros looked like the best team in the AL over the last four months, largely because their rotation coalesced after a messy start to the season. As long as Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown continue pitching like they have, Houston is set up well to go back to the World Series. Don’t ignore the return of Kyle Tucker, who is again hitting like an All-Star. His presence ensures the top of the Astros’ lineup is one of the best in baseball.
Bryan Murphy: When you talk about stars stepping up in the clutch, there is no closer out there as reliable as Emmanuel Clase right now. He has a legitimate case at the 2024 Cy Young, but a World Series berth would be even better. If it comes down to bullpen play to decide the series, the Guardians have to love their odds.
Chris Cwik: I sang the Orioles’ praises above, but the Astros are a more well-rounded team. The pitching rotation separates Houston. With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown near the top, plus an improved Yusei Kikuchi as a third option, it will be tough to stop the Astros from yet another World Series appearance. It’s not all pitching in Houston either. That lineup can still hang with the best teams in the majors. Love ’em or hate ’em, Houston will be back in the World Series.
David Suggs: The Cleveland Guardians. They might be a bit off the beaten path. But the Guardians are good, man. Jose Ramirez is, in my humble opinion, a future Hall of Famer. He, Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio are as steady as they come in the field. Steven Kwan is one of baseball’s most underrated players and showed off improved power in 2024. Pitching is a concern. But I’ll trust the arm talent of Ben Lively, Tanner Bibee and Emmanuel Clase to push Cleveland into the Fall Classic.
Which team will win the World Series?
Dan Treacy: The Nationals once won the World Series immediately after losing Bryce Harper — it was Juan Soto who served as a key cog during that run. Now, the Padres win the World Series immediately after losing Soto. October is all about missing bats, and there are too many high-powered arms between the Padres’ rotation and bullpen. Just about everyone who needs to be healthy is healthy on this pitching staff, and the offense is poised to do just enough with Tatis firing on all cylinders after missing a large chunk of the season. The Padres do it for the late Peter Seidler and lift the Commissioner’s Trophy.
Bryan Murphy: A Guardians-Padres would result in one club’s lengthy World Series drought being snapped. Cleveland hasn’t won a championship in 75 years (1948), the longest drought in the MLB. San Diego has never won a World Series, with a 55-year streak of title-less seasons that’s good for third in the league.
Ohtani may be having one of the greatest seasons ever in baseball, but what Jose Ramirez is doing in Cleveland deserves much more respect than he’s been getting. Between Ramirez and Clase, this Guardians team is going to be an incredibly tough out. Cleveland was on the wrong side of the Cubs’ 108-year championship drought snapping in 2016, but this year, the Cleveland club will be the ones celebrating. Guardians in six games, with Ramirez winning MVP.
Chris Cwik: Ohtani dominated the conversation in the regular season. The entire sports-watching world marveled at his feats every night, waiting to see how many home runs he would hit or how many bases he would steal while leading the Dodgers to another win. When people tried to say he had competition for the NL MVP, he took things to another gear and proved there was no one better. So it’s only fitting that Ohtani completes that narrative and wins the World Series with the Dodgers.
David Suggs: It just feels like that sort of year for the Dodgers. Ohtani is entering the postseason on a historic hitting heater. Betts looks back to his best after dealing with a string of injuries. Freeman’s health needs to be monitored — the lower leg injury he suffered during the September run-in did not look good. Still, Los Angeles’ lineup is gravy. The Dodgers scored more runs than any other team in the league. And they did so with Betts, Smith and Max Muncy missing sizable portions of the year. Cleveland had a great season, but Los Angeles is the best team in the land. Expect to see Ohtnai and the Dodgers lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy when it’s all said and done.
