Mavs vs. Timberwolves prediction: Odds, betting advice, player prop bets for Game 1 on Wednesday, May 22

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The 2024 NBA Playoffs have been filled with surprises, not the least of which is the Mavs and Timberwolves competing in the Western Conference Finals. Game 1 of this unlikely but fascinating best-of-seven clash takes place tonight in Minneapolis (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Sling).

Both teams had to slay monsters to get to the penultimate round of the postseason. Dallas knocked off MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top-seeded Thunder by one point in Game 6. Minnesota took out MVP Nikola Jokic and the reigning champion Nuggets in Denver, after mounting the biggest Game 7 comeback in NBA history.

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This matchup features two of the top scorers in the NBA Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards (both top seven in MVP voting this season). Breakout players like the Mavs’ P.J. Washington and Wolves’ Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid have been huge. And don’t forget about Kyrie Irving, who continues to etch his name in the all-time ranks of clutch playoff performers.

This conference finals also pits arguably the two best defenses of the West against one another. The Wolves, led by four-time DPOY Rudy Gobert, ranked as the best D all season. The Mavs, after acquiring Daniel Gafford at the deadline, have become the most improved defense in the Association.

Nobody knows what to expect from a series perspective, but it’s far easier to analyze stats and trends to identify game-by-game betting value. With that in mind, let’s get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 1 of the Wolves vs. Mavs series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick

Mavericks +4.5 at Wolves (-115)

The Western Conference semifinals proved that the Mavericks are better on the road than the Wolves are at home. Dallas stole Games 2 and 5 in Oklahoma City by a combined 21 points, led by Luka Doncic and his combined 60 points, 21 rebounds, and 17 assists.

Doncic has ice in his veins regardless of venue — the MVP finalist averaged a league-high 33.5 points per game on the road this season. He also benefits from having all-time clutch postseason player Kyrie Irving as a running mate, and multiple complementary scoring pieces around them like the emergent P.J. Washington and lob threats Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively.

Minnesota has a heck of a defense, but its offense has been far from consistent. Matching up against a Dallas defense that has grown by leaps and bounds since the start of the season, the Wolves should have trouble running away from the Mavs in Game 1. Four-and-a-half points seems like too many to give to a confident, gritty, Mavs team with scoring chops and rim protection. Consider betting the underdogs to cover.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Wolves 102, Mavericks 100 — Minnesota ekes out the win (-185) but Dallas covers the +4.5 spread (-115), and the final score finishes UNDER the projected total of 207.5 (-110).

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Mavs at Wolves: UNDER 207.5 (-110)

All signs point to the UNDER here. Both these squads just used up a bunch of energy to get past two of the best four teams in the league. Both teams also have elite defense, seemingly contesting every shot and making the lives of ball-handlers extremely difficult.

Minnesota held the defending champion Nuggets to below 91 points three times in the semifinals, and limited Denver to 95.3 PPG at home in the series. Dallas, meanwhile, took control of its series against OKC by surrendering just 293 points between Games 3 and 5.

Don’t expect fireworks in this one. Denver set a blueprint for Dallas to follow: Blitz Anthony Edwards and force “the others” to come up big for the Wolves. Even in victory, Minnesota couldn’t reach 100 points in Game 7. Expect a hard-fought contest that leads to a much lower over/under ahead of Game 2.

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bets

Luka Doncic points: OVER 28.5 (-110)

Last year, Nikola Jokic responded to not winning MVP by storming through the West on a 16-4 postseason run and winning MVP of both the Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals. This time around, it might be Luka Doncic’s turn to do the same.

As already noted earlier in this column, nobody averaged more points per game on the road this season than Luka’s 33.5. And Minnesota’s top-ranked defense only seemed to motivate him more, as he averaged a whopping 36.5 PPG over his two games against the Wolves.

Twenty-nine seems like a gift here. Doncic has scored 60 points over his past two games, he’s averaging 29.8 points per road game in the playoffs, and nobody on the Wolves can guard him. Bet on Cool Hand Luka to go off in Game 1.

Naz Reid points: OVER 9.5 (-120)

Reid has provided the Wolves with a much-needed spark off the bench multiple times this postseason, and he has scored in double-digits in three of Minnesota’s past four games. His activity alone is contagious, crashing the boards and hustling for loose balls to give his squad an effort advantage.

Big men with big energy and moxie tend to get rewarded by teammates, and Chris Finch and company know that Reid must continue to contribute in the scoring department for the Wolves to have any chance of making the NBA Finals. Bet the Sixth Man of the Year to reach double-figures once again on Wednesday.