Goals can be hard to come by in a European final, but they can make or break a club’s dreams in front of millions around the globe.
As Real Madrid get set to take on Borussia Dortmund in the 2024 Champions League final, one club will be elevated to new heights amongst the all-time European greats. Either Real Madrid will emerge with a record 15th European title, the most of any club in history, or Dortmund will become just the 14th club to win multiple European titles, looking for their first since 1997.
Keeping a tight defensive structure can win trophies, but those who score goals are the ones who get crowned as legends. In European finals, it’s not always the most likely individuals who crop up in front of goal, just as it was Rodri who gave Manchester City the 2023 crown.
The last four Champions League finals have all finished 1-0, so the team on the board first will enjoy a massive swing toward their chances of emerging victorious. The Sporting News breaks down who could be the ones to find the net on the biggest stage in club football, as well as which players could find themselves booked and which side could rack up scoring opportunities.
MORE: Predicting who will win the 2024 Champions League final between Real Madrid and Dortmund
Goal scorer odds, best bet for 2024 Champions League final
| Borussia Dortmund | BetMGM (USA) |
Real Madrid | BetMGM (USA) |
| Niclas Fullkrug | First: +800 Anytime: +275 |
Vinicius Jr. | First: +360 Anytime: +110 |
| Julian Brandt | First: +1200 Anytime: +425 |
Jude Bellingham | First: +375 Anytime: +115 |
| Marco Reus | First: +1250 Anytime: +475 |
Joselu | First: +450 Anytime: +140 |
| Karim Adeyemi | First: +1350 Anytime: +500 |
Rodrygo | First: +600 Anytime: +200 |
- Pick: Vinicius Jr. first goal scorer
- Odds: +360 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Jude Bellingham last goal scorer
- Odds: +375 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Niclas Fullkrug anytime goal scorer
- Odds: +275 (BetMGM)
Goals may be hard to come by in this match, but there are a few ways to find value amongst the odds, especially given the market’s heavy swing towards Real Madrid players to find the net. Vinicius Jr is a big-game player, having scored in a Champions League final already in his career. With Kylian Mbappe likely to join Real Madrid this summer, Saturday could be the last time he participates in an event as iconic as this as the unrivalled titan in Madrid’s attack.
The Brazilian has taken to scoring early in matches of late, looking to set the tone. Vinicius has scored first on five separate occasions since bagging the opener against Girona in early February, including twice in the Champions League (once against RB Leipzig and again against Bayern Munich, both German sides). Add in four other goals this season in the first half-hour of matches, and Vinicius is a real candidate to breach Gregor Kobel’s goal early in this game.
On the flip side, Jude Bellingham is Real Madrid’s closer. He has nine game-winning goals this season across all competitions, and has been a game’s last goal scorer on eight occasions, including five goals in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time. If this game is in the balance late, he could be an option to finish it off for the Spanish giants.
For Dortmund, there’s one clear option up front and that’s Niclas Fullkrug, who is ending the season in great form headed into the Euros. As Sebastien Haller struggles with fitness, Fullkrug has established himself as the clear option in front of net, scoring in both legs against PSG and leading the team in shots by a solid margin.
Shots odds, best bet for 2024 Champions League final
| Team | FanDuel (USA) |
Player | FanDuel (USA) |
| Total shots | Over 31: -115 Over 32: +110 |
Niclas Fullkrug 2+ SOT |
+350 |
| Dortmund total shots |
Over 9: -105 Over 10: +150 |
Marco Reus 2+ SOT |
+850 |
| Real Madrid total shots |
Over 21: -130 Over 22: +100 |
Joselu 2+ SOT |
+150 |
| Total SOT | Over 10: -115 Over 11: +140 |
Vinicius Jr. 2+ SOT |
+155 |
| Dortmund total SOT |
Over 2: -180 Over 3: +135 |
Rodrygo 2+ SOT |
+230 |
| Real Madrid total SOT |
Over 7: -105 Over 8: +170 |
Jude Bellingham 2+ SOT |
+240 |
- Pick: Karim Adeyemi 1+ SOT
- Odds: +140 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Niclas Fullkrug 1+ headed SOT
- Odds: +230 (FanDuel)
- Pick: Real Madrid 16+ total shots
- Odds: -105 (BetMGM)
Shots on target are a fickle thing, especially in a match where both teams will be looking to attack their opponents with pace. Borussia Dortmund have a clear frontrunner for shots with No. 9 Niclas Fullkrug, who has 31 shots in the Champions League this season, eight more than anyone else in the Dortmund squad. He’s exceptional in the air as Dortmund are proficient on set-pieces, an area where Real Madrid have been somewhat soft this season, and he has had opportunities with his head in recent Champions League games.
Donyell Malen was a shot merchant off the wing early in the Champions League season, but he has lost his starting place to the effective wide duo of Karim Adeyemi and Jadon Sancho. The latter is more exclusively a creator, but Adeyemi can crop up in front of goal himself, putting six of his 12 efforts on frame this season in Champions League play, including a pair of efforts against PSG last time out.
Real Madrid are not so easy to sort out, which makes them a dangerous attacking team with multiple options in front of goal. Backing them to rack up shots is as much a bet on Borussia Dortmund to put Madrid in poor shooting positions than it is on Real Madrid to overwhelm their opponent. Dortmund have conceded nearly 16 shots per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, and almost 2.0 xG.
Real Madrid will be well positioned to take advantage of that, as they average 16.8 shots per match in Champions League play, and have their entire attacking unit fit and ready to start. Madrid should have opportunities, it’s a matter of whether they can capitalize.
Corners odds, best bet for 2024 Champions League final
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Total Corners | Over 9.5: -135 Under 9.5: -110 |
| Dortmund total corners |
Over 4.5: +115 Under 4.5: -175 |
| Real Madrid total corners |
Over 5.5: -120 Under 5.5: -125 |
- Pick: Under 9.5 total corners
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Half with most corners — 2H
- Odds: -120 (BetMGM)
While some of the averages seem to indicate a high corner count, especially for Real Madrid, there’s a few reasons why this match could end up with a lower total than many expect.
Borussia Dortmund have conceded the most corners per game of any Champions League knockout stage participant this year, but if they have their way, they’ll keep Madrid away from set-piece opportunities like they did in the first leg against PSG, where the French giants racked up just three total corners to Dortmund’s three.
Madrid have collected the fifth-most corners per game of the 12 knockout stage sides, indicating verticality isn’t exactly their game. The Spaniards love to hit on the counter, and so do Dortmund, so working possession down to the end line isn’t what either of these clubs are most comfortable doing.
Regardless of the total, there are likely to be more corners after halftime as whoever trails will look to flood numbers forward in a desperate late attempt to get back level, just as PSG did against Dortmund in the second half of their second semifinal leg, where they piled on nine corners in an unsuccessful attempt to find the net.
Yellow card odds, best bet for 2024 Champions League final
Referee: Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
VAR: Nejc Kajtazoovic (Slovenia)
4th official: Francois Letexier (France)
| Team | BetMGM (USA) |
Player | DraftKings (USA) |
| Total cards | Over 3.5: -175 Under 3.5: +115 |
Karim Adeyemi to be booked |
+150 |
| Dortmund total cards |
Over 2.5: +150 Under 2.5: -225 |
Emre Can to be booked |
+180 |
| Real Madrid total cards |
Over 1.5: -185 Under 1.5: +120 |
Ian Maatsen to be booked |
+200 |
| Red card? | Yes: +400 No: -750 |
Dani Carvajal to be booked |
+240 |
| Penalty? | Yes: +220 No: -350 |
Eder Militao to be booked |
- Pick: Under 3.5 total yellow cards
- Odds: +115 (DraftKings)
- Pick: Eduardo Camavinga to be booked
- Odds: +270 (DraftKings)
It’s been tough to get a read on Slavko Vincic from a disciplinary standpoint. That’s probably a good thing from a sporting perspective, because it means he can read a game well and adapts to the situation at hand rather than have tendencies one way or another, but from a predictions standpoint it makes things difficult.
In the 2022 Europa League final between Eintracht Frankfurt and Rangers refereed by Vincic, the Slovenian dished out just two bookings, both in the second half.
The swing here is the recent history of discipline in the Champions League final, where referees do their absolute best to keep all 11 players for each team on the pitch. Last year’s final between Man City and Inter boasted five bookings, but three of those came deep in stoppage time when tempers flared. Prior to that, two straight Champions League finals went under this total, including Real Madrid’s win over Liverpool two years ago that saw just one player booked all game.
One player who could be at risk of a yellow card is Eduardo Camavinga, who will likely start due to the injury keeping Aurelien Tchouameni sidelined. The 21-year-old midfielder is a talented and versatile player, but discipline is one of his weaknesses. He picked up a booking in just 20 minutes off the bench against Bayern Munich in the semifinal, and has been shown four cards in La Liga play since the start of March. He averages 2.1 fouls per game in this year’s Champions League and has picked up 12 cards across league and Europe this season.
