Aston Villa couldn’t have dreamed that as May begins, they would be fighting for a top four place in the league table, alongside contesting a two-legged European semifinal. Yet that’s where they stand as they host Olympiacos at Villa Park on Thursday.
Hoping to fend off Tottenham for the final Champions League place domestically, Villa must also balance their presence in the Europa Conference League semifinals, with the first leg at home followed by a trip to Greece for the second leg next week.
It’s an extremely difficult pair of mountains to climb simultaneously, especially while in the midst of a significant injury crisis which has tested the club throughout the season. It has seen Unai Emery and his squad rise to the challenge on several occasions, as Ollie Watkins guns for a Premier League Golden Boot while they have downed big clubs like Ajax and Lille in Europe.
Olympiacos do not face the same difficulty of balancing two simultaneous competitions at this stage of the season, as they are almost surely out of the running for the Greek Super League title. They sit fourth in the table, five points behind leaders AEK Athens with three domestic fixtures remaining. They will be fully prioritising these two European games in the hopes of salvaging something tangible from this season for their incredibly demanding supporters.
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Aston Villa vs Olympiacos prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+375)
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Olympiacos
Aston Villa have been difficult to predict down the stretch of the season, with such vastly different results including a 4-1 defeat to Man City and a road loss at Lille juxtaposed with a title race-altering victory over Arsenal, all since the start of April. Yet they’re in solid recent form, having beaten Lille at home and topped Bournemouth, plus a draw with Chelsea where they held firm for a result despite being battered across the 90 minutes.
On the contrary, Olympiacos have been exceedingly poor on the road this season, beaten by Fenerbahce in the previous round and losing a damaging league fixture to AEK Athens to close out March, plus their most recent road match, a 1-1 draw with Aris Thessaloniki which left their title chances in tatters.
And yet, with all that, there are a pair of damaging injuries which leave Aston Villa in a difficult place. They will be without goalkeeper Emi Martinez, who has played hero on numerous occasions this year, and the absence of midfielder Youri Tielemans could also prove a difference-maker. The hosts should avoid defeat at home, but they will have a lot of work to do in the second leg in a very hostile environment.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Aston Villa win | -225 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Olympiacos win | +575 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -115 N: -125 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -150 U: +105 |
| Aston Villa to advance |
-350 |
| Olympiacos to advance |
+230 |
Aston Villa vs Olympiacos match facts
- Date: Thursday, May 2, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- Referee: Marco Guida (ITA), VAR: Paolo Valeri (ITA)
- Last meeting: None (First meeting)
Aston Villa vs Olympiacos best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — YES
- Odds: -115 (BetMGM)
Olympiacos may have been poor this season on the road, but keeping them off the scoresheet is a monumental task, especially without an injured Emi Martinez in goal.
In each of the last three times Olympiacos were held off the scoresheet, they still managed to put up a double-digit shot total, indicating they still present significant danger up front but, like any team, occasionally fail to hit the target, a result of normal variance over the course of a long season. Douglas Luiz is nowhere remotely close to the defensive presence in midfield as either Boubacar Kamara or Youri Tielemans, so John McGinn will have a lot of work to do helping out his partner.
From a Villa perspective, they haven’t been held off the scoresheet since the 4-0 defeat at Tottenham when they played 25 minutes a man down, and still out-shot Spurs 10-9. Villa have also failed to score in just one European match this season, a road game at Ajax in which they came back home and won big to advance through the Round of 16.
Aston Villa vs Olympiacos prop bet
- Pick: Ollie Watkins 2+ shots on target
- Odds: +105 (FanDuel)
Ollie Watkins has fully recovered from his injury through early 2024, and is in excellent form. While the rise of Jhon Duran has vultured some volume from Watkins up front, Moussa Diaby remains an inconsistent attacking presence, meaning Watkins is still the main target in the attacking third.
He has 3+ shots in three straight Premier League matches, and he has tested the goalkeeper at least twice in two of his three home European starts this season — and the one in which he failed to reach that mark was the home game against Ajax in which he scored before being withdrawn in the 33rd minute due to injury.
In a game where Villa should look to control the attacking pace and play a more open style, Watkins will be a key presence up front.
Aston Villa vs Olympiacos live stream, TV channel
This Europa Conference League game will be streamed in English across the United States exclusively on Paramount+, where every single game of the UEFA European competitions can be found this season. A Spanish-language broadcast is also available to stream on ViX.
In the UK, this match will be televised on TNT Sports 1, with streaming available on the broadcaster’s dedicated platform discovery+. In Canada, the match can be found streaming on DAZN alongside every UEFA continental fixture this European season.
