When the point spread for a Super Bowl is as tight as it is this season, with San Francisco a consensus choice over Kansas City, NFL prop bettors are likely to take a closer look at the chances of the game going into overtime.
Update: Super Bowl 58 was the second-ever to go into overtime, as the Chiefs outlasted the 49ers 25-22, and some bettors cashed in at long odds on the prop. Odds on the Super Bowl going into OT were +900 at BetMGM and +1100 at ESPN Bet.
We have overtime in the Super Bowl.
It was +900 at some books.
95% of bets on YES for OT at #BetMGM per @johnewing
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) February 12, 2024
And according to BetMGM’s Christian Cipollini, manager of sports trading, the wagers on that prop bet are pouring in on “yes,” that there will be overtime in the game to be played Feb. 11 in Las Vegas.
“Right now (as of Monday) 93.4% of tickets and 93.0% of handle is on ‘Yes’ (+750) for the ‘Will the game go to overtime?’ market,” he said. The odds of ‘no’ overtime stands at -2500 at his site.
But considering recent and distant history, the chance for “yes” bettors to collect are pretty shaky.
Still, with plenty of wagering coming in on Super Bowl 58, let’s take a look at this popular game prop: Will there be overtime in the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl 58 overtime odds
The ‘Will the Super Bowl go into OT’ prop closed at +900 at BetMGM and +1100 at ESPN Bet, per reports.
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History of Super Bowl overtime
This regular season only 13 of the 272 games in the league went to overtime, which is one every 20.9 matchups on average. In eight of those games the point spread was 3 or under. But there was one when 10-point favorite Jacksonville lost in OT to visiting Cincinnati.
The regular-season overtime odds improve somewhat when mixing in data from 2021 and 2022, the other seasons in which the 32 teams played a 17-game schedule.
There were 21 OT games in 2021 and 20 last season, which makes for an average of one OT game every 15.1 matchups over the past three regular seasons.
In the playoffs, however, there hasn’t been an overtime since the 2021 postseason, a stretch of 27 games that is the longest without extra time since a 62-game span from 1993-98.
One person who is absolutely, positively against betting “yes” for this prop is nationally recognized sports analyst and handicapper Danny Sheridan:
“The real odds on an OT should be at least 50-1, but why give those odds when a sportsbook can give say 8-1 and the public will still bet it!”
But even if a person had wagered on there being overtime in the Super Bowl with 50-1 odds each year during the 57-game Super Bowl era, they still would have come out losers in the long run since there has been only one OT game in that span that dates to January 1967.
That game took place seven seasons ago when the New England Patriots, an 8-point favorite, rallied from a 28-3 second-half deficit to beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28.
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Super Bowl 58 overtime betting strategy
For starters, be sure to shop around at the top-rated sportbooks for the best odds. Many times there is quite a bit of difference from one site to another.
For “yes” bettors, FanDuel (+1120) makes a lot of sense, lengthening slightly from +1100 on Monday. And “no” odds are as good as -1600 (Westgate SuperBook) at some sites.
While folks rooting for overtime can make nice money if the game goes to an extra period, the odds are against them. For bettors on the opposite side, they’ll need deep pockets to generate a profit.
For instance, at books where the “no” odds are -2000 or shorter, in order to make $ 50 you’d have to wager at least $ 1,000. And to make $ 1,000, that escalates to a minimum $ 20,000 output.
Thus, the question for “no” bettors is whether it’s worth it to sweat so much money while watching the game with friends when a small “yes” wager might be more enjoyable and won’t destroy your bank account if you lose?
Plus, on the off-chance that “yes” bet comes through, you can then go out and buy a tank of gas or two (unless you live in California) and it wouldn’t have cost much to be in on the action.
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The first overtime in NFL history
That game took place at Yankee Stadium in New York in 1958 when the Baltimore Colts faced the Giants in the league championship, a matchup that is referred to as “The Greatest Game Ever Played.”
The Johnny Unitas-led Colts won 23-17 on a 1-yard TD run in overtime by Alan Ameche. It was the first of two straight league titles for Baltimore. It also was the first of five losses for the Giants in a six-year span in title games.
