The NFL has one of the best offseasons among major sports, and every year, the NFL Draft captures the attention of fans looking toward the future.
At a time when information and rumors about the NFL are scarce, the draft fills a void. Everyone — from fans to NFL writers to draftniks — spends time trying to figure out which players each team will take in the first round.
As much as we all like to pretend that we know exactly what will happen on draft night, we typically don’t. Prospects slip, teams reach, and trades happen that make even the best NFL Draft analysts out there struggle to correctly predict 10 picks.
MORE: Tracking the latest NFL Draft rumors, news, trade buzz before Round 1
We here at Sporting News are naturally participating in this fruitless pursuit of trying to correctly mock the 2024 NFL Draft. We have a full seven-round mock, a mock draft with three options for each first-round pick, a mock draft with trades, and many more.
But can artificial intelligence predict the 2024 NFL Draft better than us? AI tools are still being developed, so their knowledge tends to lag even in the inexact science of mocking the draft.
SN decided to put that to the test, using Meta AI to predict what will happen in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The process of doing so was simple.
Meta couldn’t quite handle the request to write a full mock draft on its own — it kept including players from the 2023 NFL Draft class along with present-year players — but it was able to create a mock on a pick-by-pick basis.
As such, we prompted Meta to make each pick in the 2024 NFL Draft one by one. The program was largely able to provide picks for each team, but when it listed multiple options for each pick, we defaulted to use the first player on Meta’s list as the pick for each team. If the program provided players who were already chosen, we re-did the query.
The result of the AI mock draft experiment is listed below, starting with the Bears selection at No. 1 overall.
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NFL mock draft 2024: Meta AI predicts the first round
1. Chicago Bears
- Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Meta started well in its NFL mock draft projection, giving likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams to the Bears. The program erroneously listed the Panthers as having the top selection — this pick originally belonged to Carolina but the Panthers traded it to the Bears as part of the Bryce Young trade — but still was complimentary of Williams’ fit in Chicago.
“Williams is a dynamic quarterback prospect with exception arm talent, athleticism, and playmaking ability,” Meta noted in its analysis.
So far, so good for the AI mock drafter.
IYER: Why Caleb Williams is drawing Patrick Mahomes comparisons before 2024 NFL Draft
2. Washington Commanders
- Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders selected Daniels over Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy with the second selection, with Meta noting that the LSU product is “a highly talented quarterback prospect with a strong arm, quick release, and excellent mobility.”
Daniels is the prohibitive favorite to be the No. 2 selection, so this was another win for team Meta.
MORE: Why Jayden Daniels is drawing Lamar Jackson, RG3 comparisons before NFL Draft
3. New England Patriots
- Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Meta listed Daniels, Maye, and J.J. McCarthy as options for this selection, but it ultimately decided that Maye was the better selection. It noted the UNC’s product’s “Exceptional arm strength” and “elite athleticism and mobility” as key reasons the Patriots would prefer him over McCarthy.
Maye compares favorably to Justin Herbert, so it’s easy to see why the Patriots would like him in this spot.
4. Arizona Cardinals
- Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals are believed to be targeting a wide receiver in the 2024 NFL Draft, so Meta gave them Harrison Jr., who is considered by many to be the best receiver in this year’s draft class. That choice was sensible and so, too, was the program’s analysis that trading down with a team hoping to land McCarthy would be its second-best option.
Meta listed the Vikings, Raiders, Broncos, and Giants as threats to trade up and get McCarthy.
2024 NFL DRAFT TOP 10 LISTS: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | EDGE
5. Los Angeles Chargers
- Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Meta noted that the Chargers traded Keenan Allen to the Bears during the offseason, which gave the Chargers nine picks but a hole at receiver. Trading down was a strong consideration for Los Angeles — with Minnesota being listed as its top candidate to be a trade partner — but ultimately, they stayed put and grabbed Nabers.
Many believe that the Chargers will choose between Nabers and Joe Alt with this selection should they keep it — unless Harrison is still on the board.
6. New York Giants
- Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Here’s the first unusual pick for Meta, but evidently, it isn’t a big fan of Evan Neal. Alt is a 6-7, 322-pound tackle prospect who could play on either side of the line but would bookend left tackle Andrew Thomas on the right side.
Alt would be an upgrade for New York’s offensive line, and Neal could find a home at left guard to complete New York’s blocking unit. That said, few have the Giants taking a tackle here, as Neal was a first-round pick in 2022. It may be too early to give up on him on the outside, so New York would likely prefer to add a top pass-catching weapon while getting offensive line competition in the second round.
But, hey, maybe Meta knows something we don’t about New York’s opinion of Alt versus what the team currently thinks of Neal.
7. Tennessee Titans
- Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Meta wanted to give the Titans both Alt and Nabers ahead of Bowers, but each was off the board. It settled on the Georgia product in a classic best-player-available situation and noted his 175 receptions, 2,538 receiving yards, and 26 touchdowns were the most ever by an SEC tight end.
This pick would give the Titans another weapon for Will Levis and would give them a great receiving tight end room of Bowers and Chigoziem Okonkwo.
8. Atlanta Falcons
- Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Credit to Meta, it seems to know that Latu is trending up and has a chance to overtake the favored Dallas Turner to become the first defensive player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. It noted Latu’s “agility, snap time, and pass-rushing techniques” as his strengths, and it pointed to his 96.3 player grade from Pro Football Focus as a reason to be confident in Latu translating to the NFL level.
Latu had 23.5 sacks over his past two years with the Bruins, so it seems possible that Meta could ultimately get this one right.
9. Chicago Bears
- Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Fautanu over Taliese Fuaga and Rome Odunze? That’s a bold choice for Meta, but this is a pick-your-flavor type of offensive line class. If Chicago really likes Fautanu, it could roll with him here.
Meta notes that Fautanu is “athletic and moves well” and could be the Bears’ “Day 1 starter at left tackle.” Braxton Jones may put up a fight for that role, but selecting Fautanu could upgrade the position while making Jones a more-than-qualified swing tackle.
10. New York Jets
- Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
This pick almost got weird for the Jets, with Jermaine Burton, Keon Coleman and T’Vondre Sweat earning mentions as considerations for this slot. Luckily, Fashanu was rated higher among the options it believes the Jets should target.
Fashanu’s “prototypical frame and plus athleticism” were of interest to Meta when mocking him to the Jets. New York acquired Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses during the 2024 NFL offseason, so Fashanu wouldn’t be a Day 1 starter, but he would provide excellent depth and a long-term answer on the left side for New York.
11. Minnesota Vikings
- J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Meta wanted to give the Vikings a shot at Drake Maye given his connection to Minnesota’s quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, but it settled for McCarthy with Maye off the board. The Vikings considered moving up twice to get the Michigan quarterback, so why wouldn’t they take him with the 11th pick if he’s still on the board?
BENDER: Why J.J. McCarthy is drawing Jim Harbaugh comparisons from Mel Kiper Jr.
12. Denver Broncos
- Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
The run on quarterbacks begins. Meta apparently wanted to join the so-called in-crowd, as it noted that Nix “is a popular pick for the Broncos” in its analysis of the Oregon quarterback’s potential. The program also considered going with Michael Penix Jr. here, stating that he is “another name to watch for Denver.”
Meta may be following the crowd with this pick, but it’s for a good reason. Denver’s current quarterback depth chart is headlined by Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, and Ben DiNucci.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
- Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Jayden Daniels was mentioned as a Raiders target here — Meta cited his relationship with Antonio Pierce from their Arizona State days as the reason behind that — but it decided that Penix was the way to go with Daniels off the board.
Penix would be a great scheme fit with the Raiders and has been mentioned as a target for them. This is another sensible team-and-player match by Meta, even if Las Vegas might ultimately draft an offensive lineman or cornerback over Penix.
14. New Orleans Saints
- Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
Here’s another great team-and-player match by Meta. The Saints are searching for help on the offensive line, as 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning hasn’t developed well, and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is dealing with a career-threatening injury.
Fuaga can provide insurance in case Ramczyk is forced to retire, and he’ll challenge Penning on the left side if Ramczyk can continue playing. In the worst-case scenario, Fuaga could end up replacing the departed Andrus Peat as the team’s starting left guard.
15. Indianapolis Colts
- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Through 15 picks, Meta has remained fairly chalky, except for the still unselected Rome Odunze (more on that later). The program wanted to give the Colts a cornerback here badly, however, and Arnold was its top option.
Arnold had five interceptions during his final season at Alabama and is expected to be the first cornerback off the board Thursday. Quinyon Mitchell may rival him for that honor.
16. Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Turner has largely been mocked as a top-10 selection, but Meta has him slipping to the Seahawks at 16. It notes that Turner “posted a top-10 pass-rush win rate among edge defenders in 2023” and that his measurables are “top-end.”
Turner performed well at the NFL Combine and racked up 10 sacks in 2023, so it’s hard to argue with Meta’s logic. The only gripe you can have with Turner’s selection is that he should have come off the board earlier.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Meta believes the Jaguars are another cornerback hotspot, listing Mitchell as the team’s top option. The Toledo product dominated the NFL Combine and put together strong film playing in the MAC. Granted, he’ll face a big jump in competition going to the NFL, but this looks like another solid pick from Meta.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
- Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Meta must read Sporting News because we mocked Murphy to the Bengals in our alternating picks mock draft from last week. The Bengals have a big need at the position after losing D.J. Reader to the Lions in free agency, and Murphy is a great value at this juncture.
19. Los Angeles Rams
- JC Latham, OT, Alabama
This pick is where the mock starts to get a bit weird. The Rams worked hard to fix their offensive line last season and rebuilt the interior while finding a serviceable left tackle in Alaric Jackson. Perhaps Latham is meant to serve as a long-term successor to right tackle Rob Havenstein, 31, but he has been a solid starter for nearly a decade since being a second-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Latham (6-6, 359 pounds) is viewed by many as a right tackle prospect, so the fit here seems odd. It might make more sense for Los Angeles to take a pass rusher like Jared Verse rather than settling on a player who might only be a backup as a rookie.
20. San Francisco 49ers (via trade with Steelers)
- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
OK, now we’re in business. Meta really wanted the Steelers to trade out of this pick so it took inspiration from this story by CBS Sports and sent it to the 49ers as part of a package for Brandon Aiyuk.
The terms of the deal were as follows:
Steelers get:
- WR Brandon Aiyuk
- No. 31 pick
- No. 63 pick
- No. 132 pick
49ers get:
- No. 20 pick
- No. 51 pick
- No. 84 pick
Basically, the 49ers are moving up three times while moving on from Aiyuk. That’s not bad, especially considering how barren Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft might be. The high-ceiling McKinstry ended up being the 49ers’ pick, as they could use some help at cornerback.
Parting with Aiyuk and not getting receiver help may be a hard pill to swallow, though, especially with Rome Odunze still inexplicably available.
MORE: Breaking down the top landing spots for Brandon Aiyuk if traded
21. Miami Dolphins
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, G/C, Oregon
This time, Meta decided to stay put and wanted the Dolphins to add some help on the interior offensive line. Powers-Johnson was described as “a good fit” for Miami. He could either help to replace Robert Hunt at guard or battle Aaron Brewer for the starting center spot vacated by Connor Williams.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
- Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Meta described Wiggins as “a slender cornerback with strong playmaking ability,” though some teams have actually been critical of his back-to-the-ball playmaking ability, per Sportskeeda’s Tony Pauline.
Regardless, the Eagles need to add young corners to the roster to serve as long-term options behind Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Wiggins has a high ceiling and could compete with Eli Ricks and Keele Ringo for playing time.
23. Minnesota Vikings
- Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Meta is a big fan of Verse’s production. It noted that he had 18 sacks in just 25 games at Florida State after transferring there from Albany in 2022. Some will be surprised not to see another offensive player as the pick given that Minnesota selected McCarthy at 11, but the Vikings have a strong group of weapons and two good offensive tackles, so it can afford to wait on interior line help.
24. Dallas Cowboys
- Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The Cowboys can’t afford to wait too long for offensive line help after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz to free agency. They have holes at left guard and center with Tyler Smith projected to move out to left tackle.
Barton could fill either role, as Meta notes that he “can play anywhere on the offensive line.” Still, the program projects him to be a center and believes that he would be the team’s best option at the position since Travis Frederick’s heyday.
25. Green Bay Packers
- Payton Wilson, LB, NC State
This was the first pick in this mock that may shock readers. It won’t be the last.
Wilson was a solid, productive linebacker during his time at NC State, logging 138 tackles, six sacks, and three interceptions as a fifth-year senior, but he dealt with injury concerns with the Wolfpack, as well.
Wilson showed well at the NFL Combine and could become a good NFL linebacker, but few have him as a first-round talent. Perhaps Meta is projecting a reach with one of these later-round picks because there always is one, but it would be surprising to see the Packers roll with Wilson over a cornerback like Cooper DeJean unless they trade down.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Many believe the Buccaneers could take an edge rusher, but Meta thinks going with Mims is the better option. Perhaps the program believes that current right tackle Luke Goedecke, a second-round pick in 2022, would be better served at left guard. That would solidify the interior offensive line while opening the door for Mims to start at right tackle (or left tackle, if he’s more comfortable there).
The Buccaneers invested heavily in Baker Mayfield this offseason, so it makes sense to protect him. Perhaps Meta’s pick here is one that more mock drafts should be following.
27. Arizona Cardinals
- Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Meta wanted the Cardinals to focus on defense after targeting offense with the fourth pick. That led to Robinson becoming the high-upside pick.
A brief scouting report of Robinson from Meta: “A Penn State edge rusher with a 4.48 40-yard dash and a lot of potential.”
Potential is something that the Cardinals could use as they continue to rebuild their roster.
28. Buffalo Bills
- Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Bills fans, if you’ve made it this far, feel free to let out a deafening groan after seeing your team pass on both Brian Thomas Jr. and Rome Odunze (who remains, inexplicably, available).
Why did Meta give Mitchell to the Bills over those more highly regarded receivers? It didn’t say. All it provided was this explanation:
“The Bills need a wide receiver after trading Stefon Diggs. Some possible picks include Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell.”
Maybe Mitchell will shock the world and end up being the best of the bunch, but unless Meta knows something we don’t, Buffalo fans won’t be too happy with this projection.
MORE: Grading the Stefon Diggs trade for the Texans, Bills
29. Detroit Lions
- Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Buffalo fans will be even more annoyed to know that Thomas Jr. comes off the board one pick after their selection. The Lions certainly need a true No. 2 receiver across from Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the 6-4 LSU wideout would fill that need.
Meta was intrigued by Thomas’ 4.33 40-yard dash and believes that speed will make him a solid fit in Detroit.
30. Baltimore Ravens
- Darius Robinson, EDGE/DL, Missouri
Robinson “is a good match for the Ravens’ scheme,” according to Meta. That’s enough to make him the 30th pick here.
It’s hard to argue with this selection, as the Ravens could use a versatile edge defender to help replace Jadeveon Clowney.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (via trade with 49ers)
- Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State
And here we have it: The biggest reach in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Johnson may be an NFL Draft sleeper, but he shouldn’t sniff the first round.
The good news for Steelers fans is they at least moved down to take Johnson. That said, not only is the Penn State tight end not projected to be a first-round pick, but he also doesn’t even fill a need for the Steelers. Pittsburgh spent Day 2 picks on Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington in 2021 and 2023, respectively, so unless Arthur Smith wants to run a lot of three-tight-end sets (possible) or is planning to demote either Freiermuth or Washington below Johnson (also possible), it’s hard to justify this pick.
Meta might be analyzing the Steelers’ recent trend of taking Day 2 tight ends — including Freiermuth, a Penn State product — and using it to justify this pick. Even so, this seems like an outlandish choice for the Steelers and would likely cause the Pittsburgh faithful to revolt.
Yes, Aiyuk is factored into this selection as part of the trade involving the 20th pick. Still, this would be an easy F grade considering that Johnson ranks 116th overall on Sporting News’ final big board.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
- Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
An inexplicable reach is followed by an equally insane value pick. How did Odunze fall into the Chiefs’ lap? One working theory was that Meta is secretly a Kansas City fan. It denied that when asked point-blank about it.
“I don’t have a favorite NFL team or any sports team for that matter,” Meta said. “I am a neutral AI language model, and my purpose is to provide information and answer questions to the best of my ability without taking a side or showing bias towards any particular team or individual.”
Likely story.
Anyway, the second working theory is that the program simply didn’t realize that Odunze was still available and thus didn’t consider him as an option for the mid-round picks.
Why did that change with the Chiefs? Meta might believe that the Chiefs could be willing to trade up to get Odunze. After all, they are desperate for wide receiver help with Rashee Rice’s future uncertain after his involvement in a hit-and-run crash.
Odunze is largely projected to be a top-12 pick. Meta notes that he has “ball-tracking skills paired with great hands” that should make him a rock-solid starter.
The Chiefs don’t seem likely to get this lucky in real life, but if they trade up for Odunze, Meta will get the last laugh.
And all told, Meta’s first-round mock isn’t too outlandish. The top 15 picks all seem reasonable, and even the second half of the mock has some solid projections within it.
Soon enough, we’ll see just how well Meta’s mock draft compares to the ones completed by numerous draft analysts across the industry, but as it stands, the Johnson and Odunze picks remind us that the AI mock drafters haven’t overtaken humans quite yet.
