In this betting preview:
AUGUSTA, GA — I’m on-site in Augusta covering the 88th edition of the Masters, so be prepared for a full week of in-depth, on-site information — the quality coverage you have learned to expect from Read The Line for all of golf’s major and signature events!
It’s been 259 days since Brian Harman lifted the Claret Jug. The final two majors of 2023 may have been a premonition of what was to come in 2024! The term “expect the unexpected” has come into play this season on the PGA TOUR, as we have witnessed one long shot winner after another.
Along those lines, who might have guessed Scottie Scheffler would begin figuring out the flat-stick for a short stretch around THE PLAYERS? Or, how about when Jon Rahm’s fealty fell by the wayside, and he left for “greener” pastures and LIV Golf?
Here’s my point: as we approach the most predictive tournament of the year (by far), maybe it’s time to start thinking a little outside-the-box at Augusta National.
Akshay Bhatia’s Valero Open win on Sunday earned him the last spot in the field of 89 players for the 88th Masters. The top 50 and ties will get to the most coveted weekend in golf. The purse was $ 18 million last year, and Jon Rahm took home well over $ 3 million for first. The official purse for 2024 will be announced today by Chairman Fred Ridley.
Corey Conners beat Collin Morikawa for a matchup win last week at the Valero Texas Open. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Masters winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
The Masters expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Xander Schauffele (+1400 on FanDuel)
Schauffele’s Masters futures were in the low 20s to win last week. No player near the top of the betting board has seen such an odds drop.
Xander has six top-10s in 2024, and he continues to be one of the most well-rounded players in major championships. In six starts at Augusta National, he has three top-10s.
With so many of his peers falling off, the opportunity is right in front of Schauffele. If he goes out and beats Scottie, he should finally earn his first major title.
Best head-to-head bet: Patrick Reed over Brian Harman (-110 on DraftKings)
In his last four Masters starts, Reed has three top-10 results. The 2018 green jacket winner simply knows how to play this golf course.
Harman has played the Masters five times and missed three cuts, including each of the last two! Harman may hold the Claret Jug, but when it comes to Magnolia Lane, Reed’s results are proven.
*BET OF THE WEEK*
Cameron Young to finish in the top 20 (+150 on FanDuel)
Over his past seven major championships, Young has four top-10s. Combine that amazing record with a runner-up finish in his last event, the Valspar Championship, and he seems like a great bet to place in the top 20 this weekend.
Young is gaining an average of five strokes tee-to-green on the field over his last five starts. The putter may keep him from winning, but his ball-striking always makes him part of the winning conversation.
The Masters live odds to win
Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of DraftKings.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1100 |
| Jon Rahm | +1100 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +2800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3000 |
| Tony Finau | +3500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +4000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +4000 |
| Dustin Johnson | +4000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +4000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4500 |
| Justin Thomas | +4500 |
| Will Zalatoris | +4500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +4500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +5000 |
| Cameron Young | +5000 |
| Cameron Smith | +5000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +5500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +5500 |
| Russell Henley | +5500 |
| Max Homa | +5500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +5500 |
| Shane Lowry | +6000 |
| Jason Day | +6000 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 |
| Brian Harman | +6000 |
| Patrick Reed | +7000 |
| Sam Burns | +7500 |
| Adam Scott | +7500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +9000 |
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The Masters past winners, betting trends
The Masters offers us an opportunity to have some fun while I describe the skills needed to succeed around Augusta National.
I’m going to take you through 10 of the greatest shots in Masters history, and relate those moments to the specific attribute our current field needs to keep up with the contenders and ultimately win the coveted green jacket.
- Phil Mickelson’s six-iron off the pine straw. Mid-iron and long-iron play are the key to securing GIRs. In 2010, Mickelson was facing a 207-yard approach on 13. He launched a mid-iron onto the green off a questionable lie and made birdie. Seventy-three percent of approach shots at ANGC are played from over 150 yards. Approach play is the number one skill needed at the Masters.
- Jack holes the famous birdie putt on 17 in the 1986 Masters. Nothing substitutes for Masters experience. As Jack once said, “You don’t read greens at Augusta National — you remember them.”
- Larry Mize chips in from an impossible position. Mize won the 1987 Masters in a playoff over Greg Norman by chipping in from off the green on the 11th hole. ANGC is the toughest around-the-green test on TOUR. Contenders are required to use imagination and skill to score and save par around these green complexes.
- Charl Schwartzel holes out from 114 yards on hole three. Schwartzel’s final round in 2011 is often remembered for birdieing the final four holes. Before that birdie on 15, he holed out on three for eagle! Par-4 scoring is an incredible indicator of success at the Masters. Play the par-4s under par and you’ll be in the winner’s conversation come Sunday afternoon.
- Ben Crenshaw knocks in a giant putt on hole 10. Crenshaw captured the lead in 1984 when he birdied eight, nine, and 10. From the front of the green, Ben dropped a 60-foot bomb. Putting from long range is the most important skill on the greens. You don’t have to make them all like Ben, but you should two-putt them!
- Bend it like Bubba Watson. Watson went into the woods on hole 10 in the 2012 playoff. From there, he hit a gap wedge from 150 yards to 12 feet. He went on to make birdie and win, but the lesson lies in Watson’s ability to bend the ball out of the woods. Augusta is not a linear test. To effectively play some holes, one must work the ball to better take advantage of the angles.
- “Sandy” Lyle wins from the fairway bunker. Forty-four bunkers are carefully placed across Augusta National. In 1988, Lyle launched a fairway-bunker shot on 18 onto the green and made birdie to win. Each contender will be tested from the sand multiple times over the 72 holes. Successful scoring from those pristine white surfaces is all part of the difficult short-game Augusta challenge.
- Gene Sarazen hits the shot heard ’round the world in 1935. Sarazen was battling Craig Wood and he holed out his second shot on the par-5 15th hole for an albatross. Par-5 scoring is essential for getting to double-digits under par. Make sure your players capitalize on the four holes that historically play under par.
- Tiger Woods chips in for birdie in 2005. “In your life!” exclaimed Verne Lundquist. Woods wowed the spectators surrounding the 16th hole with the most iconic short-game shot in Masters history. Capturing the green jacket takes creativity. Tiger took home five Masters titles because he used his imagination to see shots others just didn’t.
- Fred Couples survives a scare along the shores of Rae’s Creek. Fred’s final round in 1992 will always be remembered for his tee shot on Golden Bell (Hole 12). The shot flew offline, testing the edge of the green and the bordering embankment. Couples’ ball managed to hold on the grass, and eventually led to par. Others have not been as lucky. Jordan Spieth lost in 2016 when he rinsed his ball twice on 12. Who could forget the fateful four in front of Tiger Woods in 2019? Brooks Koepka, Ian Poulter, Tony Finau, and Francisco Molinari all got wet while Woods went on to win his fifth green jacket. The last skill is luck. If the Augusta gods are shining down on you, it must be your time…
No other venue allows us the perspective and history to create such a catalog of characteristics. The predictive nature of ANGC limits the overall list of outright contenders to just a couple of names, most of which are on our card.
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The Masters: Augusta National breakdown
Nobody plays the Masters looking for anything green other than a jacket! Golf’s greatest tradition continues to evolve and innovate. Most fans feel like the Masters is the same every year, and I’m here to tell you that couldn’t be farther from the truth. The members of Augusta National are constantly pushing the envelope preparing for the future.
There are easy examples, such as ANWA and the Drive, Chip, and Putt finals, but that’s not where I’m going here. How about the best App in golf? Not to mention the live-streaming coverage all over the golf course, and the most thoughtful changes to the scorecard and design anyone can imagine.
The second hole was the easiest relative to par in the 2023 Masters. Tournament Officials have added 10 yards and pushed the tee box to the left. This brings the beautiful bunker on the corner of this dogleg back into play. The 2024 scorecard now reveals a 7,555-yard par-72 golf course. The perfect complement of four challenging par-3s, four compelling par-5s, and 10 amazing par-4s. Dominated by length, ANGC was the sixth-longest course on the PGA TOUR last year.
Long may get longer in the 88th edition of this springtime ritual. A significant storm system is expected tonight and into Thursday morning. The tee times are out, so if you are choosing first round leaders or playing daily fantasy, make sure you check the weather one final time before you book those bets.
Early in the week, the course showed some bounce. Green complexes were hard, and the landing areas were fast. I don’t believe the rain episode will be the featured story this week like in 2023. The days leading up have been extraordinary, and the remainder of the rounds should be exquisite as well.
Our familiarity can be as much of a blessing as it is a curse. No other major championship utilizes the same venue year after year. As a result, we are inundated with an infinite number of trends to help us predict the winner.
In 2024, the TOUR trend has not been our friend. No tournament sets the tone for the year like the Masters. I’m going to steer clear of too much trend talk and stick to the basics. The golf course is the sixth-longest on TOUR, featuring:
- Four par-3s measuring 186 yards on average
- Ten par-4s measuring 456(!) yards on average
- Four par-5s measuring 563 yards on average
Augusta National Golf Club boasts 79 acres of fairway grass. That’s about double the PGA TOUR average we see week in and week out. Those well-studied green complexes average just 6,486 square feet, which is the seventh-smallest on TOUR. That’s another reason why GIR proficiency correlates so well to success.
This is the first time we will see Bentgrass greens in 2024. The most famous (and fast) putting surfaces on the planet look extremely well-maintained and FIRM as I walk the course. Those who contend will also need to avoid the 44 carefully constructed and artistically-arranged bunkers that decorate this green landscape. Thirty-two of those bunkers sit green-side and complement so many of the known hole locations over the years.
Don’t forget the five holes where water comes into play, through all of Amen Corner and on 15 and 16. ANGC is a five-mile walk that has incredible elevation changes. After 18 holes, a player will climb a total of 442 feet during their walk. Over the last five and 10 years (5/10), the average winning numbers have been as follows:
- Final scores: 13/12 under par
- Winners’ pre-tournament odds: +2100/+2600
- Cutline: +4/+4.3
Six holes have a birdie rate of over 15 percent. All four par-5s are included there, and 14 holes have a bogey rate of over 15 percent. The last 10 winners averaged 20 sub-par scores over 72 holes.
Looking at the average winning score, birdie/bogey rates, and the other relevant data, it’s obvious that players must save pars around this place in order to contend.
With a firm course and some nasty weather during Round 1 including wind, the short-term goal will be to get to double-digits under par. Then they can see where they stand when Jim Nantz greets the last group on the second nine Sunday afternoon.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
