Football fans are counting down the weeks to the 2024 NFL Draft, and mock drafts are starting to look more and more alike across the board.
The NFL Combine and the early stages of NFL free agency are in the books, and that typically allows draft analysts a better idea of what teams need and are targeting with each of their early selections.
Some quarterback vacancies have been filled. The Falcons aren’t likely to draft a quarterback early after signing Kirk Cousins, so the No. 8 pick now becomes a potential landing spot for the first defensive player in 2024.
That makes many want to focus on picks 11-13, where the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders will all be drafting with needs at quarterback.
There isn’t yet a consensus on what those teams will do. Some draft analysts have J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, and even Michael Penix Jr. coming off the board with those selections. Others have the teams eschewing quarterback and opting for elite talent at other positions.
As always, a few NFL writers are even trying to mix up their mocks by projecting trades that could shake up the 2024 draft altogether.
With that in mind, Sporting News is breaking down several top mock drafts with the bulk of NFL free agency in the books. Here’s how several experts see the first round taking shape.
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Vinnie Iyer’s mock draft (The Sporting News)
Iyer’s latest mock draft was released on March 19:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
| 1 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Caleb Williams | QB | USC |
| 2 | Washington Commanders | Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina |
| 3 | New England Patriots | Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | Malik Nabers | WR | LSU |
| 6 | New York Giants | Rome Odunze | WR | Washington |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA |
| 10 | New York Jets | Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | J.J. McCarthy | QB | Michigan |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Bo Nix | QB | Oregon |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | Cooper DeJean | CB | Iowa |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | J.C. Latham | OT | Alabama |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | Byron Murphy II | DT | Texas |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings (from HOU via CLE) | Jer’Zhan Newton | DT | Illinois |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | Jackson Powers-Johnson | G | Oregon |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | Tyler Guyton | OT | Oklahoma |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kool-Aid McKinstry | CB | Alabama |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) | Troy Fautanu | G | Washington |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | LSU |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State |
| 30 | Baltimore Ravens | Jordan Morgan | OT | Arizona |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | Graham Barton | OT | Duke |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | Kingsley Suamataia | OT | BYU |
Noteworthy:
— Five quarterbacks go within the top 12 picks, as the Vikings and Broncos take J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix, respectively. Neither team made a significant quarterback addition during free agency (no, Sam Darnold does not count), so each team considered a signal-caller in a loaded class is reasonable.
— Drake Maye is ahead of Jayden Daniels in this mock, albeit by one pick. The UNC and LSU products are believed to be competing to be the Commanders’ No. 2 overall pick.
— The offensive slant of the 2024 NFL Draft is undeniable. Five quarterbacks, four receivers, and 11 offensive linemen are included within the top 32 selections. Tight end Brock Bowers brings the total number of offensive players selected in the first round to 21.
MORE: NFL Draft big board of top 125 players
Mel Kiper’s mock draft (ESPN)
Kiper’s latest mock draft was released on March 19:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
| 1 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Caleb Williams | QB | USC |
| 2 | Washington Commanders | Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU |
| 3 | New England Patriots | Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers | Malik Nabers | WR | LSU |
| 6 | New York Giants | Rome Odunze | WR | Washington |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State |
| 10 | New York Jets | Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | J.J. McCarthy | QB | Michigan |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Bo Nix | QB | Oregon |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | JC Latham | OT | Alabama |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | Troy Fautanu | G | Washington |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | Byron Murphy II | DT | Texas |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | LSU |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | Graham Barton | C | Duke |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings (from HOU via CLE) | Cooper DeJean | CB | Iosa |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | Tyler Guyton | OT | Oklahoma |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Xavier Worthy | WR | Texas |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) | Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | T.J. Tampa | CB | Iowa State |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | Xavier Legette | WR | South Carolina |
| 30 | Baltimore Ravens | Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | Roger Rosengarten | OT | Washington |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas |
Noteworthy:
— Like Iyer’s draft, five quarterbacks are selected within the top 12 picks, including three going consecutively to start it off. The major difference? Washington goes with Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye this time.
— Combine star Xavier Worthy, who blazed the fastest 40-yard dash in the event’s history, goes 26th overall to the Buccaneers. He pairs with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in what would be a dynamic receiving corps around Baker Mayfield.
— Five cornerbacks are off the board in the first round of this mock, good for half of the defensive players taken in the first round. Kiper is among the few notable analysts to have Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa in the first round, so that explains why his mock skews toward cornerback when teams aren’t looking to beef up their offenses (22 of 32 first-round picks).
Daniel Jeremiah’s mock draft (NFL Network)
Jeremiah’s latest mock draft was released on March 19:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
| 1 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Caleb Williams | QB | USC |
| 2 | Washington Commanders | Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina |
| 3 | New England Patriots | Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings (projected trade with ARI) | J.J. McCarthy | QB | Michigan |
| 5 | New York Jets (projected trade with LAC) | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State |
| 6 | New York Giants | Malik Nabers | WR | LSU |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | Rome Odunze | WR | Washington |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with NYJ) | Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with MIN) | Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | Troy Fautanu | OT | Washington |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | JC Latham | OT | Alabama |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Tyler Guyton | OT | Oklahoma |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | Graham Barton | OL | Duke |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with MIN) | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | LSU |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | Jackson Powers-Johnson | OL | Oregon |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Darius Robinson | EDGE | Missouri |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) | Byron Murphy II | DT | Texas |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | Jer’Zhan Newton | DT | Illinois |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | Kool-Aid McKinstry | CB | Alabama |
| 30 | Baltimore Ravens | Cooper DeJean | CB | Iowa |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas |
Noteworthy:
— Jeremiah gets a little crazy with this one, as he has the Vikings trading up to No. 4 to get J.J. McCarthy. Four quarterbacks have never gone consecutively to start a draft, so a trade-up from Minnesota could make history.
— Jeremiah is also the only analyst to have Michael Penix Jr. in the first round of his mock draft. He has the Washington product going to the Raiders at 13 because he thinks Penix “is a unique fit for the Raiders’ style of play.”
— Bo Nix doesn’t make the cut in this mock draft despite Penix’s inclusion. That’s partially because the Broncos — one of Nix’s top projected landing spots — went with tight end Brock Bowers at 12 overall rather than a quarterback.
Todd McShay’s mock draft
McShay has not yet released his first full mock draft for 2024.
Dane Brugler’s mock draft (The Athletic)
Brugler’s latest mock draft was released on March 5:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
| 1 | Chicago Bears (from CAR) | Caleb Williams | QB | USC |
| 2 | Washington Commanders | Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons (from NEP) | Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State |
| 5 | Chicago Bears (from LAC) | Rome Odunze | WR | Washington |
| 6 | New York Giants | Malik Nabers | WR | LSU |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings (from TEN) | J.J. McCarthy | QB | Michigan |
| 8 | New England Patriots (from ATL) | Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers (from CHI) | Taliese Fuaga | OT | Oregon State |
| 10 | New York Jets | Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans (from MIN) | J.C. Latham | OT | Alabama |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | Quinyon Mitchell | CB | Toledo |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | LSU |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers (from SEA) | Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia |
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles (from JAX) | Terrion Arnold | CB | Alabama |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | Byron Murphy | DT | Texas |
| 19 | Los Angeles Rams | Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State |
| 20 | Seattle Seahawks (from PIT) | Jackson Powers-Johnson | G/C | Oregon |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | Troy Fautanu | G | Washington |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from PHI) | Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson |
| 23 | Houston Texans (from CLE) | Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills (from DAL) | Adonai Mitchell | WR | Texas |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | Cooper DeJean | CB | Iowa |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Graham Barton | G/C | Duke |
| 27 | Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) | Darius Robinson | DL | Missouri |
| 28 | Dallas Cowboys (from BUF) | Tyler Guyton | OT | Oklahoma |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State |
| 30 | Carolina Panthers (from BAL) | Ladd McConkey | WR | Georgia |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | Jordan Morgan | OT/G | Arizona |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | Xavier Worthy | WR | Texas |
Noteworthy:
— Brugler’s projecting a trade-filled first-round. There are seven trades made in the draft, including the Falcons moving up to third overall and the Panthers moving into the first round by dealing with the Ravens.
— The runs on quarterbacks, receivers, and offensive tackles ensures that a defensive player doesn’t come off the board until the 13th pick. That would be Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, who seems increasingly likely to be the first cornerback selected after his stellar showing at the NFL Combine.
— This is another mock that has McCarthy rising. He goes at No. 7 overall to the Vikings, who trade up to get him. That jump isn’t as high as the leap the Vikings make in Jeremiah’s mock, but clearly, draft analysts believe that Minnesota likes McCarthy.
