March Madness 2024 bracket tips: How to play best odds when picking Final Four, Sweet 16

Last year’s NCAA tournament was the exception to the rule.

Will the No. 1 seeds restore order in 2024?

Three of this year’s No. 1 seeds – UConn, Purdue and Houston – have dominated throughout the regular season. Will that success translate in the tournament?

In the 38 seasons of the expanded bracket era, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament 24 times. That includes five of the last six champions in Kansas (2022), Baylor (2021), Virginia (2019), Villanova (2018) and North Carolina (2017).

Of course, last year was the outlier. The Huskies won the NCAA tournament as a No. 4 seed, and the Final Four featured No. 5 Miami, No. 5 San Diego State and No. 9 FAU. It was an unpredictable tournament that featured No. 16 FDU upsetting No. 1 Purdue in the first round.

Thirty-eight of the 76 championship game participants since 1985 have been No. 1 seeds. That means a No. 1 seed has made it to the final game 50 percent of the time.

Here is a look at past statistical trends from the NCAA Tournament since 1985 to remind you how to play the percentages with your bracket.

MORE: Sporting News 2024 All-America team

March Madness bracket tips for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Odds to make the championship game, by seed

Seed	Odds
No. 1	25.0% (38 of 152 No. 1 seeds)
No. 2	7.9% (12 of 152)
No. 3	7.2% (11 of 152)
No. 4	2.1% (4 of 152)
No. 5	2.1% (4 of 152)
No. 6	1.3% (2 of 152)
No. 7	0.1% (1 of 152)
No. 8	2.1% (4 of 152)

Bracket tip: Last year was the first time since 2014 where the championship game did not have at least one No. 1 seed in the championship game. From 2015-22, a total of 10 of the 14 national championship game participants were No. 1 seeds – and that included No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchups in 2015, 2017 and 2021. Given the strength of the No. 1 seeds in this year’s field, a correction from last year seems likely where at least one title game participant is a No. 1 seed.

Odds to make the Final Four, by seed

Seed	Odds
No. 1	39.5% (60 of 152)
No. 2	20.4% (31 of 152)
No. 3	11.8% (18 of 152)
No. 4	9.2% (14 of 152)
No. 5	5.9% (9 of 152)
No. 6	2.0% (3 of 152)
No. 7	2.0% (3 of 152)
No. 8	3.9% (6 of 152)
No. 9	1.3% (2 of 152)
No. 10	0.7% (1 of 152)
No. 11	3.3% (5 of 152)

Bracket tip: A total of 109 of the 152 Final Four participants – or 71.7% – have been No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seeds. That trend has held up in the last five Final Fours – where 14 of the 20 participants have been a No. 1 (8 of 20), No. 2 (4 of 20) or No. 3 (2 of 20).

The other side of the trend? A team seeded No. 5 or lower has made the Final Four in each of the last eight tournaments. That list includes Michigan State (No. 7, 2015), Syracuse (No. 10, 2016), South Carolina (No. 7, 2017), Loyola Chicago (No. 11, 2018), Auburn (No. 5, 2019), UCLA (No. 11, 2021), North Carolina (No. 8, 2022) and last year’s trio of Miami, San Diego State and FAU.

The by-the-percentages Final Four features two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 or No. 3 and one team ranked No. 5 or lower. Try building your Final Four with that format and see what happens.

Odds to make the Sweet 16, by seed

Seed	Odds
1	84.2% (128 of 152)
8	10.5% (16 out of 152)
9	5.2% (8 out of 152)
16	0% (0 out of 152)
2	63.1% (96 out of 152)
7	18.4% (28 out of 148)
10	15.8% (24 out of 152)
15	2.6% (4 out of 152)
3	52.0% (79 out of 152)
6	29.6% (45 out of 152)
11	17.1% (26 out of 152)
14	1.3% (2 out of 152)
4	47.3% (72 out of 152)
5	34.2% (52 out of 152)
12	14.5% (22 out of 152)
13	3.9% (6 of 152)

Bracket tip: A No. 15 seed has made the Sweet 16 each of the last three seasons in Oral Roberts (2021), Saint Peter’s (2022) and Princeton (2023). Florida Gulf-Coast (2013) is the only other No. 15 seed to get there, so don’t count on it happening again.

Even last year, 10 of the Sweet 16 teams were seeded No. 4 or higher.

Lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament

Villanova is the lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats upset Georgetown 66-64 in the championship game in 1985, the first year of the expanded bracket. Villanova was a No. 8 seed that season.

Only 10 other teams seeded lower than No. 4 have made the NCAA championship game, including No. 5 San Diego State last season. The Huskies routed the Aztecs 76-59.

Kansas (No. 6, 1988) and UConn (No. 7, 2014) were the other teams seeded lower than No. 4 that won the national title.

Bracket tip: Thirty-five of the 38 NCAA champions since 1985 have been seeded No. 4 or higher. As wild as last year’s tournament was, UConn was still on the No. 4 line.

March Madness winners by seed, 1985 through 2023

Seed	Titles
1	24
2	5
3	4
4	2
5	0
6	1
7	1
8	1
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0
14	0
15	0
16	0

March Madness upset odds, by seed matchup

The upsets were wild last season. A No. 13, No. 14, No. 15 and No. 16 scored first-round upsets. It led to a wide–open bracket. No. 15 Princeton made a run to the Sweet 16. The ironic part was the popular No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset did not happen last year.

Seed matchup	Odds
16 vs. 1	1.3% (2 out of 152)
15 vs. 2	7.2% (11 out of 152)
14 vs. 3	15.1% (23 out of 152)
13 vs. 4	21.1% (32 out of 152)
12 vs. 5	34.9% (53 out of 152)
11 vs. 6	39.5% (60 out of 152)
10 vs. 7	38.8% (59 out of 152)
9 vs. 8	51.3% (78 out of 152)

Bracket tip: Spend a considerable time researching the 8-9, 7-10 and 6-11 games. Those are the games that can make a difference in scoring later.

The fact No. 11 seeds have a better first-round record than No. 10 seeds is interesting – and there are a few intriguing No. 11 seeds on the bracket this season. Splitting the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games is a good strategy, though it’s worth noting the No. 9 seed has a 13-7 overall record in the last five tournaments against the No. 8 seed.