One of the most intriguing early matchups of this year’s Champions League knockout stage begins on Tuesday as last year’s finalists Inter Milan welcome Atletico Madrid to the San Siro.
In previous years, this would be considered likely to result in a defensive chess match, but this season’s Atletico Madrid is a far cry from previous Diego Simeone teams, and thus it presents instead a mouth-watering clash of styles.
Inter are possibly this season’s most skilled grinders, able to repeatedly prevail in mucked-up matches. They have yet to lose in Champions League play, but their six group stage results (three wins and three draws) sport a combined goal differential of just +3, meaning they have thrived in close games.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have embraced a new high-flying style, topping their Champions League group behind 17 total goals in six games, including a 6-0 win over Celtic and 3-1 victory over Feyenoord. They come into this match on the heels of a 5-0 win over Las Palmas in La Liga play, and have gone toe-to-toe with Real Madrid on numerous occasions this season domestically.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Inter vs Atletico Madrid and bet Champions League matches
Inter vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Inter (-120)
- Score prediction: Inter 1-0 Atletico Madrid
While Atletico Madrid are capable of scoring in bunches, they are also too prone to empty 90-minute performances. Since the start of December, they’ve been shut out on four different occasions, including three in league play.
Simone Inzaghi is a master of muck, with Inter conceding just 12 goals in Serie A this season, fewer than any Big 5 club in league play. Additionally, while they concede around 10 shots per game, those opportunities for opponents are minimal at best, with their 0.08 xG per shot third-lowest in the Big 5 leagues.
This will be a cagey first leg, but get ready for a return trip to Madrid that could get weird…
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Inter Milan win | -120 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Atletico Madrid win | +390 |
| Both teams to score Y/N |
-105 / -120 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
+110 / -150 |
| Inter Milan -0.5 goals |
-135 |
| Atletico Madrid +0.5 goals |
-105 |
Inter vs Atletico Madrid match facts
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024
- Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
- Referee: Istvan Kovacs (ROU), VAR: Marco Fritz (GER)
- Last meeting: Inter 0-2 Atletico Madrid (Aug. 27, 2010 | UEFA Super Cup)
Inter vs Atletico Madrid best bet
- Pick: Inter to win and under 2.5 goals
- Odds: +260 (DraftKings)
Inter are just too good at home this season to be dictated at the San Siro. They conceded just one goal in their three home Champions League group matches, and in all league home matches have conceded just 9.61 xG, the least of any Big 5 European club.
It’s been nearly perfect of late, keeping two straight clean sheets at home, including against Juventus in a critical Serie A title bout. Zoom out further and they have an utterly astonishing home record, conceding just one goal in their last eight home matches, going all the way back to late October. Outside of Hellas Verona’s goal in a 2-1 Inter win, you have to go back to RB Salzburg’s second-half goal in a 2-1 Inter win to find the last time they conceded at the San Siro.
On the flip side, Atletico Madrid do not play well in grind-em-out matches. Of the five times they’ve been held without a goal this season, they lost four of those games, only able to manage a scoreless draw once, way back in mid-August in the second match of the year. Of their four 1-0 victories, all came in league play against bottom-five sides in the Spanish top flight.
Inter vs Atletico Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Hakan Calhanoglu anytime goal scorer
- Odds: +340 (FanDuel)
Lautaro Martinez is an ever-present threat for Inter, and he is having himself an oustanding season. Yet incredibly, in six Champions League matches against Spanish opposition at home, he has somehow never scored. He’s bagged goals at Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Real Sociedad, but has come up empty against all three at the San Siro.
Marcus Thuram is in wonderful form as well, but he is largely struggling against bad teams — only two of Thuram’s 12 goals this season have come in one-goal matches.
The true goal scorer value here lies with Inter midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, who has become a real force for Inter this season in a number of ways. He has nine Serie A goals this season and also bagged one in the UCL group stage, and is good for a few efforts on goal each game, taking multiple shots in all but four Serie A matches since the start of October.
Additionally, Calhanoglu has scored against Atletico Madrid in the past, almost a decade ago while with Bayer Leverkusen, and he has managed a goal and three assists in four matches against Spanish giants Barcelona as well.
Inter vs Atletico Madrid live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
| USA | CBS Sports Network | Fubo USA, Paramount+, ViX |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| UK | TNT Sports 1 | discovery+ |
The entirety of the 2023/24 Champions League knockout stage will be streamed by CBS Sports on Paramount+.
This Champions League first-leg match in the Round of 16 has also been selected for television broadcast on CBS Sports Network, a channel which is available to stream on Fubo.
The broadcast rights for the Champions League in Canada are owned exclusively by DAZN. In the UK, TNT Sports owns the rights to the UCL, placing this game on TNT Sports 1.
