It wouldn’t be a Lions game without Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness making headlines. For better or worse, Campbell has lived life on the edge since taking over as the head coach in Detroit, and he didn’t adjust his mentality in the Lions’ NFC championship loss to the 49ers.
Campbell took the points on fourth down before halftime, extending the Lions’ lead to three possessions with kicker Michael Badgley set up for a chip-shot field goal. Once the second half got underway, though, all bets were off.
Campbell twice put the ball in Jared Goff’s hands on fourth down, rather than attempting a moderately long field goal with Badgley. Both decisions failed, leaving fans wondering why Campbell didn’t simply trust his kicker in a close game.
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Would Badgley have made the kicks, though? Here’s a closer look at Badgley’s field goal percentage compared to the Lions’ fourth-down odds.
Michael Badgley field goal percentage
Campbell passed on what would have been 46- and 48-yard field goal attempts from Badgley in the second half. The fateful 4th-and-3 play that gave the 49ers the opportunity to extend their lead to 10 took place at the San Francisco 30-yard line, so Badgley would have needed 48 yards to tie the game.
Badgley’s probability isn’t as easy to evaluate as it would be for other kickers, as he attempted only six field goals this season, including the playoffs. Badgley had made all six, but he attempted only two from 40 or more yards: a 41-yarder in the regular season and a 54-yard try in the playoffs.
There are caveats, though. All six of Badgley’s field goals came in a dome, and he also missed two extra points in 23 tries leading up to Sunday’s game.
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What about the rest of Badgley’s career? He’s five-of-13 (38.5 percent) from 50 or more yards, though four of his eight misses came during a difficult 2020 season. Badgley went two-of-three from 50 or more yards with the Lions in 2022 and didn’t attempt a kick from 50 or more yards this season until the wild-card win over the Rams.
Badgley is 37-of-48 (77.1 percent) from 40-49 yards in his career, though that mark improves to 85.2 percent over the past three seasons.
| Distance (Yards) | FG percentage |
| 20-29 | 96.4% |
| 30-39 | 96.7% |
| 40-49 | 77.1% |
| 50+ | 38.5% |
| Average | 82.4% |
MORE: How successful is Dan Campbell’s aggressive mentality?
Badgley’s 38.5-percent career field goal percentage from 50 or more yards is lower than a team’s chances of converting on 4th-and-3, but the kick wouldn’t have been quite that long. Being just inside 50 yards makes the field goal try a bit more manageable, and Badgley’s track record since 2020 is admittedly better than his overall career marks.
From 2013-22, teams converted on 4th-and-3 47.4 percent of the time. While that varies from team-to-team and the Lions’ 52.5-percent conversion rate on fourth down tries this season was strong, it’s reasonable to believe Badgley’s odds were better than that, considering he is 77.1 percent successful from 40-49 yards in his career.
There are layers to Campbell’s decision. Converting on 4th-and-3 wouldn’t have resulted in three points like a Badgley field goal would, instead setting up the Lions to potentially score seven and take the lead. The difference in a tied game and a 31-27 lead was presumably a massive one in Campbell’s eyes, considering how well the 49ers’ offense was moving down the field in the second half.
Campbell said after the game that he didn’t regret his bold fourth-down calls, and it would be unrealistic to expect anything less from one of the NFL’s most authentic coaches. That doesn’t mean serious questions about passing on two Badgley field goal attempts won’t follow him into the offseason after the Lions blew a 17-point halftime lead in their biggest game since 1991.
NFL fourth-down success rates
The Lions’ two fourth-down attempts in the second half came from a distance of two and three yards, respectively. Here are fourth down success rates across the NFL from 1-5 yards, according to 10-year data from 2013 to ’22.
| Distance (Yards) | Conversion rate (2013-2022) |
| 1 | 65.5% |
| 2 | 57.2% |
| 3 | 47.4% |
| 4 | 46.4% |
| 5 | 44.1% |
What did the analytics say about Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decisions?
Analytics gave the Lions a slightly better chance of winning by going for it on 4th-and-3 (39.1 percent) rather than attempting the field goal (38.8 percent). Still, the difference effectively amounts to a coin flip.
pic.twitter.com/HE3FTevFaw
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 29, 2024
The same can be said for Campbell’s 4th-and-2 decision, as analytics gave Detroit an ever so slightly better chance of winning (90.5 percent) by going for it over attempting the field goal (90.3 percent).
pic.twitter.com/M8n5RKqtuQ
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 29, 2024
The Lions had a zero-percent chance to win when the clock ran out in the fourth quarter, and that means Campbell’s decisions will draw scrutiny regardless of how well thought-out the process was.
