These are the matchups we most seek, one of the worst ATS teams in the nation against one of the best. They don’t occur frequently, but we can often smoke ’em out 10 days in advance, monitor and plan.
These two fit that template like gloves, as Southern Methodist had covered nine of 10 going into Thursday’s game at North Texas, and spiraling Wichita State has failed to cover nine of its past 10.
And the North Texas tilt could not have worked out better for us.
SMU (13-6 SU, 11-5-2 ATS) visits Wichita State (8-11, 5-13) Sunday for an American Athletic Conference tilt. Tipoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. and it will air on ESPN2.
SMU vs. Wichita State odds: Point Spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for SMU vs. Wichita State:
SMU betting news: Mustangs led by defense
The Mustangs have flexed on defense, allowing foes in some of those defeats a paltry 64, 64, 62, 54, 65, 53, 57 and 47 points. The dynamics of SMU’s offense were unleashed, too, when it tallied 103, 77, 75 92, 89 and 90 points.
However, we viewed Thursday through a different lens. Both SMU and North Texas were 4-1 in the American Athletic Conference, so we expected—and dearly wanted—a taut, tight, tough affair.
It delivered. The Mean Green won, 68-66. A superb battle till the very end, challenging for SMU. That will make the Mustangs extra feisty and ornery for Wichita State, plus they have an extra day to repair and prepare.
SMU checks in on stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s big national board, all 362 Division-I programs rated, at No. 40, and The Ta (as a Kansas pal calls the Shockers’ home) will feel this clampdown defense everywhere.
From long range, the Mustangs rate second in the country by allowing foes to sink only 27% of their long-range attempts. Wichita averages 30.2% from distance, 312nd in the game.
The Ta is an above-average 51.5% inside the arc, but this SMU squad lets opponents make only 43.4% of their 2-point attempts. Only 10 programs defend the baseline, paint and elbows at a better rate.
These Mustangs are tough on the offensive boards, too, since they yank down 37.5% of their misses; only 11 teams in the country do better under their own glass.
SMU isn’t so hot at the free-throw stripe, canning only 68.2% of its attempts. But the Mustangs even sport an advantage there, since The Ta connects on only 66.8% of its freebies.
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Wichita State betting news: Shockers have dropped 10 of past 11 games
Wichita, rated 156th on the KenPom chart, had barely climbed back into double-figure respect, at No. 97, after a 10-point defeat at Missouri on Dec. 3.
Since then, it’s been a steady slide as the Shockers have dropped 10 of 11 and they will find themselves trying to punch way above their weight class come Sunday.
The main culprit will be SMU swingman Zhuric Phelps, a junior from Midland, Texas, way out west in oil country, who went for 22 against North Texas. He hit a cool 12-for-13 at the line in hostile territory.
He lost by 15 at The Ta as a freshman, and Phelps tallied 26 in a two-point defeat in double overtime in Wichita last season. Now, the Shockers are ripe for a big loss and Phelps is poised to be a key antagonist.
Chuck Harris, a senior guard who spent his first three seasons at Butler, opened his SMU chapter by scoring in double figures in six of his first seven games, and senior power forward Samuell Williamson averages 9.4 points and 7 boards.
SMU has had a steady assists-to-turnovers ratio all season, among the top fifth of the country.
Nobody should be shocked, though, that The Ta has been among the bottom 50. In the past three, though, the Shockers have sunk to new lows with a horrible 0.511 ratio, the only squad boasting more selfishness being Alabama A&M (0.412).
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SMU vs. Wichita State prediction
You probably guessed already, but here it is.
Pick: Mustangs -8 (best current spread: SMU )
