Everyone expects a ton of running when Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are playing. The soon-to-be two-time MVP has become synonymous with QB sneaks, designed runs, and rushing TDs. It’s no surprise that his legs have generated a ton of betting action on the player prop market ahead of Baltimore’s AFC Championship Game with the defending-champion Chiefs.
Anyone can look at the Ravens’ last game against the Texans, in which LJax rushed for 100 yards and two scores, and bet the All-Pro’s overs across the board. The savviest of the sharps know better than that, understanding that prop bets require more research than just one or two games, and that a player’s reputation or playing style means nothing if the matchup isn’t right.
For the better part of the 2023 campaign, reigning Super Bowl MVP and two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes has lauded his defense as the best in the league. Kansas City ranked second in total yards allowed, second in scoring defense, and fourth in passing yards this season. But for this particular exercise, we’re specifically looking at the Chiefs’ QB rushing defense, and Jackson’s potential to hit his OVER props on the ground.
Let us hit the prop sites and ‘books for you, and provide you with the research to arrive at an informed betting decision. Here’s how we’re leaning on Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards and anytime touchdown props ahead of the Ravens vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Game. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the penultimate round of the playoffs!
Lamar Jackson rushing player props: Best bets for Ravens-Chiefs AFC Championship Game
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Lamar Jackson rushing yards — UNDER 66.5 (SuperDraft)
This will almost certainly be one of the more unpopular prop bet recommendations for conference championship weekend. Our friends at BetMGM notified us on Wednesday that LJax OVER 62.5 has generated the most player prop tickets of the entire NFL Championship slate, and that’s despite the -140 juice that comes with that OVER. SuperDraft has bumped Jackson’s rushing projection even higher, to a whopping 66.5, so we see plenty of value in the UNDER here.
Looking at Kansas City’s regular season, only one QB rushed for more than 47 yards against the reigning champs: the Chargers’ Easton Stick, playing against the Chiefs’ reserves in a meaningless Week 18 game. Even with that random 77-yard effort from the QB who shares his name with a hockey stick, the Chiefs wound up allowing just over 20 rushing yards per game to the quarterback position.
The most prolific mobile QB Kansas City faced all season, the Bears’ Justin Fields, only managed 47 rushing yards against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Tua Tagovailoa maxed out at 25 ground yards in the wild-card round.
Josh Allen amassed 72 rushing yards and two scores last week, sure, but we venture to guess Spags and the Chiefs will have a much more solid game plan against LJax, who doesn’t have nearly the arm strength or passing upside as Allen. Jackson needs to run for Baltimore to beat elite opponents, and Kansas City needs to stop LJax if it expects to punch its ticket to its fourth Super Bowl in a half-decade. We think Chris Jones and company will be up to the task.
It’s worth noting, of course, that you can’t cash in on just one prop at SuperDraft. You must hit on two-plus player props in order to cash, and your potential payout increases with every over/under prop you add to your parlay. If you pick two props and hit, you will win three times your wager. A winning three-prop parlay will net you six times your stake. Then 10x, 20x, 35x, 65x, and 100x for four, five, six, seven, and eight-prop parlays.
We tend to limit our player prop parlays to two or three players, as we would rather limit our volatility and increase our chances of winning than raise our risk and increase our potential profit. Other SD props we like this weekend are Christian McCaffrey OVER 0.5 rushing yards (free square!) and Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 23.5 receiving yards. Be sure to use this link if you join SuperDraft and enter a player prop parlay, and don’t forget to use the CMC free square!
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Lamar Jackson to score touchdown anytime (+100 on BetMGM)
Now, this one we can get behind. Jackson scored two TDs last week against the Texans, and he scored regular-season rushing TDs against the stud front-sevens of Cleveland, Detroit, and Indy this season.
With everything on the line, the presumed MVP won’t leave the goal-line opportunities to chance after how awful Gus Edwards and Justice Hill looked last week. Plus, LJax will probably want to pad his personal stats and play the hero in front of the hometown Baltimore crowd.
The Chiefs surrendered four rushing TDs to QBs this season, which amazingly accounted for 40 percent of the ground TDs they allowed all season. The Gus Bus and Blind Justice won’t likely reach pay dirt this Sunday, but we’ll happily bet with plus odds that Jackson will.
