NFL playoff picks, predictions for divisional games: 49ers hold off Packers, Bills finally solve Chiefs in playoffs

Can either C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love knock off a No. 1 seed in their playoff encores?

Stroud and Love had almost identical stats in their first postseason starts – including 157.2 passer ratings – in impressive playoff victories that pushed Houston and Green Bay into the NFL divisional playoff round. Now, the real fun begins.

Houston faces Baltimore after hammering Cleveland 45-14, the top seed in the AFC. Lamar Jackson, the leading NFL MVP candidate, and tight end Mark Andrews returned from injured reserve. If the Texans pull this upset, then Stroud’s rookie legend will be more than complete.

Love led the Packers to a 48-32 victory against Dallas, and now Green Bay renews another NFC blue-blood rivalry with San Francisco. The 49ers have won the last four playoff meetings with the Packers – all when Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Imagine what a victory here would do for Love.

The Sunday matchups will be fantastic, too. Lions coach Dan Campbell is trying to push Detroit to its first NFC championship game since 1991-92 against Tampa Bay, and the Chiefs and Bills will renew the quarterback rivalry between Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen. Weather or not, here it comes.

Which teams will advance to championship weekend. Here are Sporting News’ picks for the divisional round (odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook):

NFL playoff picks, predictions for 2023 divisional games

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m., CBS

How far have the Texans come with Stroud and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans since a 25-9 loss to the Ravens in Week 1? Stroud took five sacks from five different players in that loss, and Baltimore likely won’t deviate from that game-plan much. Stroud will be the same high-volume passer, but he’s up against a unit that had as many interceptions (18) as it allowed passing TDs (18) this season. Baltimore’s offense had just 265 yards and a pair of turnovers in the first meeting with Houston – which allowed just 56 rushing yards in the victory against Cleveland. Can the Texans’ make the Ravens one dimensional and keep Jackson contained? If they do, then they will have a chance late. Ultimately, Baltimore breaks out of the defensive struggle in the second half, and Jackson will get his first shot at an AFC championship game.

Pick: Ravens 27, Texans 20

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m., Fox

The most-frequent playoff matchup is renewed. The 49ers will be a multi-dimensional problem for the Packers’ defense, which still allowed 510 yards against the Cowboys – albeit most of that when Dallas was in way-behind mode. The Packers need to force uncharacteristic turnovers from Brock Purdy. Kyle Shanahan, however, will be patient behind a strong running game led by Christian McCaffrey. That will open the middle of the field for George Kittle and the perimeter. San Francisco will play from ahead, which will put more pressure on Jordan Love to keep pace. Green Bay must have success with Aaron Jones knowing the 49ers are 10-1 when they allow 100 rushing yards or less. Love has been fantastic, but there will be more pressure from San Francisco’s edge rushers on third-and-long, especially if San Francisco takes the early lead. We’ll stick with San Francisco. The 49ers are 6-0 S/U and 4-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or more.

Pick: 49ers 31, Packers 20

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (TBA)

Sunday, 3 p.m., NBC

Who knew this would be the playoff matchup between a pair of former No. 1 picks? These teams met in Week 6, and the Lions won 20-6 on the road. This will be an even tougher task for Tampa Bay at a revved up Ford Field, especially if Jared Goff repeats what he did in the first matchup. Goff had 353 passing yards and a pair of TD passes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 12 catches for 124 yards and a TD. That duo was better than good in the wild-card victory against the Rams. Goff had a 107.9 passer rating at home this season. Baker Mayfield will be fired up, too, and the Bucs will have a chance if Mike Evans goes off against the Lions’ secondary. That could happen either way. Yet Tampa Bay could not run the ball in the first matchup. If that trend repeats itself, then a Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will eventually get home. Tampa Bay is 8-3 ATS as an underdog, so be careful.

Pick: Lions 24, Buccaneers 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

Sunday, 6:30 p.m., FOX

Mahomes will make his first road start in the postseason. Buffalo beat Kansas City 20-17 in Week 14. Who remembers that offensive offsides call on Kadarius Toney? It was a tight game, and while the attention is on Mahomes and Allen this might end up being a defensive struggle. Neither team could generate a strong running game in that first matchup – and the Bills dominated time of possession. It’s best to keep Mahomes off the field as possible. The Bills were 7-1 S/U and 7-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. Kansas City is 7-0-1 ATS and 6-2 S/U as a road underdog since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018. and If Allen avoids field-changing interceptions, then Buffalo should be able to feed off the home crowd in the elements. Allen has played well in the last two playoff losses against the Chiefs. This time, the Bills’ defense ends Kansas City’s hopes for a repeat by forcing a late turnover.

Pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 24