In Week 7, the Indianapolis Colts have an opportunity to have a record over .500 for the first time this season.
They will be hosting the Miami Dolphins, who are looking to get their season back on track with the potential return of Tua Tagovailoa on the horizon.
Miami has dominated the series between the two franchises with a 48-24 record but Indianapolis has won three of their last four matchups.
The last time these two teams met was in the 2021 season when the Colts won a 27-17 contest.
Here are five things to watch from Indy when they hit the field on Sunday afternoon:
What to watch for in Colts vs. Dolphins Week 7
1. The return of Anthony Richardson
Shane Steichen confirmed on Monday that Anthony Richardson is expected to be in the starting lineup on Sunday unless there is a setback. This will be the second-year quarterback’s first action since leaving early in the matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4.
While there has been some outside noise about the Colts sticking with Joe Flacco as their quarterback, Steichen has been steadfast about Richardson being this team’s starting quarterback. This shouldn’t be a surprise because he not only needs the reps to further his development, but he helps benefit the rushing attack with his legs and how he can help open up rushing lanes for his running backs.
The biggest concern for the offense is if the passing attack will take a step back with Richardson in the lineup. He was inconsistent to start the season but for Indy’s sake, hopefully sitting back and watching Flacco operate the offense will help him when he’s back on the field.
There are a few things that Richardson needs to show on Sunday for the Colts to win this game. He has to be efficient with when taking the ball to the air, make sound decisions to avoid turnovers, and most importantly, finish the game healthy.
2. Forcing Tyler Huntley to beat them
This matchup is eerily similar to the Week 2 matchup against the Green Bay Packers when they faced Malik Willis. Everyone expected that the Packers were going to lean into their rushing attack and take pressure off Willis winning the game with his arm. That is exactly what they did and the Colts failed to stop it from happening.
Gus Bradley has to make sure his defense is ready for a heavy dose of De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see manufactured touches for Tyreek Hill by handing him the ball or in quick screens.
The positive for Indianapolis is that Miami has struggled in the ground game this season. They average 116.8 rushing YPG but average 3.9 yards per lowest (tied-third lowest), have a -0.24 EPA/Rush (second-worst), and have a 25% team run stuff rate (worst).
Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins have generated -110 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Colts defense has allowed a league-high 800 expected rushing yards on designed runs this season but only +34 rushing yards over expected, 18th-most in the NFL.
If Bradley can get his defense to take away Miami’s rushing attack then that will put pressure on Tyler Huntley. In his two starts this season, he hasn’t crossed 200 yards passing and has yet to throw a touchdown.
The Indy defense can’t afford another letdown game defending the run like they had in Week 2 against Green Bay.
3. Can the rushing attack get back on track?
It didn’t help that Jonathan Taylor was out of the lineup, but the Colts failed to cross 100 rushing yards in the last two weeks. They will likely be without Jonathan Taylor again on Sunday since he has yet to return to practice since suffering his ankle injury. Even if Taylor can go, he might not be able to handle his normal workload after not having a full week of practice.
As I mentioned, what will benefit Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to have bigger performances is having Anthony Richardson in the lineup. His explosive ability on the ground will force the Miami defense to key on him, which can lead to chunk gains for the pair of backs.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 125.8 rushing YPG and 4.7 rushing yards per play (fifth-highest). However, they have a -0.09 EPA/Rush (ninth-best) and a 17.9% team run stuff rate (11th-best).
Getting the rushing attack going will also benefit Richardson in the play-action attack. On play-action plays, he has a 91.7 quarterback rating, averages 12.9 yards per attempt, a 63% completion percentage, and a +4.6 passing EPA, per Next Gen Stats.
Having a strong ground game can help the Colts sustain drives, control the clock, and wear down the Miami defense by the fourth quarter to close out a win.
4. Will the pass rush deliver?
If Gus Bradley can get his defense to force Tyler Huntley to beat them, the next step is getting his pass rush to not only get pressure on the quarterback but get home, something they haven’t done since the Week 4 contest against the Steelers. In the last two weeks, they have failed to register a sack and only have four quarterback hits.
This area of Indy’s defense has to show up on Sunday. With the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they can’t allow Huntley to sit in the pocket, and let either of those guys have the time to outrun the Colts cornerbacks for explosive plays.
Miami has been good at not allowing pressure on their quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed a 26.9% pressure rate, which is the fifth-best in the NFL. But they have given up 16 sacks (tied-seventh most) and a 9% sack percentage (sixth-highest).
This matchup has to be one where Laiatu Latu and Kwity Paye step up for the defense. Not only do they need to get their hands on Huntley often, but they have to make sure to keep him in the pocket to avoid him extending plays with his legs.
This game can be won by Indy’s defensive front if they can take away the run and wreak havoc often on Huntley throughout Sunday afternoon.
5. Keep Tyreek Hill in check
The one player that Gus Bradley can’t afford to let take over this matchup is Tyreek Hill. He can easily flip a game upside down on any given play because of his explosive playmaking ability. Hill has been relatively quiet since Tua Tagovailoa went on injured reserve.
In their last three games, he didn’t cross 70 receiving yards. His longest catch in those contests was 21 yards. He also hasn’t found the endzone since the season opener. Hill is coming off his best game without Tua. In their Week 5 game against the New England Patriots, he finished with six catches for 69 yards on 10 targets.
It does feel like Hill is due for a big performance, even without Tua in the lineup. While I expect Mike McDaniel to lean into his rushing attack against Indy’s defense, as I alluded to, it shouldn’t be a surprise that he will look to get the ball in his best playmaker’s hands in creative ways.
Bradley not only needs to make sure his safeties are ready for over-the-top plays to Hill but his defense as a whole for gadget plays. In an ideal world, the pass rush won’t give Tyler Huntley time to find Hill down the field but there will be times when he will look to force the ball to him so the Colts secondary has to be prepared for that to happen.
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