Over the course of eight completed seasons at Manchester City, Pep Guardiola has met and surpassed the loftiest of expectations.
It’s easy to forget that trophless first season in 2016/17, the “I am not a coach for the tackles” press conference and a sense among voluble sections of the English football commentariat that Guardiola’s doctrine of Cruyffian positional play, which had conquered all with Barcelona and Bayern Munich, would not wash in “Our League”.
Guardiola and City have now won said league in six out of the past seven seasons, including each of the previous four — a unique run of success, albeit one that looms under the similarly unprecedented circumstances of the Premier League accusing its serial champions of 115 breaches of competition rules.
An outcome in that seismic legal case is expected during the early part of 2025, by which point we will probably know whether or not Guardiola’s future lies away from City. The recent confirmed exit of his staunchest ally and sustained links other big jobs all add to the sense that the end of an era could be close at hand.
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Pep Guardiola’s contract, salary at Man City
The key detail in all of this is that Guardiola’s current deal at the Etihad Stadium expires at the end of the 2024/25 season. He earns in the region of £19.7million ($ 25.7m) per year.
Guardiola has penned three contract extensions in Manchester since joining on an initial three-year term in 2016. The most recent two of those – both for two years – were signed in the November international breaks of 2020 and 2022. As such, it is fair to assume that decision time is in the pipeline.
A report by The Daily Mail in May 2024 said City were making preparations to replace Guardiola from the start of the 2025/26 season under the understanding that he would leave when his present terms expire.
Asked in an interview during the October international break whether he was set to leave City, Guardiola denied this was the case.
“It’s not true, I haven’t decided yet,” he told Italian television show Che Tempo Che Fa. “If I had decided, I would say it. I don’t know either, anything can happen.”
Guardiola visited Abu Dhabi during the October break and met City chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak although, as reported by The Times, the trip was primarily to fulfil commercial obligations.
Ahead of the 3-2 Premier League win over Fulham at the Etihad Stadium. City fans unveiled a banner in Guardiola’s native Catalan imploring him to stay.
“They have to bring me the bill,” the 53-year-old told reporters when informed the banner was paid for from a fundraiser arranged by the 1894 Group and 9320 podcast. “I have to pay for the banner. What can I say? Thank you so much. I fell in love since the first day I arrived here, let’s see.”
The Telegraph reported on October 14 that Guardiola was considering a one-year extension to remain at City — shorter than those agreed previously but one that would neatly take him up to a decade in Manchester.
That reports feels a little more viable after the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel as England’s new head coach. The Times and the Mail each reported that the FA had sounded out Guardiola over the prospect of becoming Gareth Southgate’s long-term successor.
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Will Pep Guardiola leave Man City with Txiki Begiristain?
The sense of shifting sands in east Manchester was heightened on October 12 when City confirmed Txiki Begiristain will step down as director of football at the end of this season.
Having held the same role at Barcelona, Begiristain joined City in 2012 and was integral in bringing his former Blaugrana team-mate Guardiola to the Premier League, Begiristain installed Guardiola in the Camp Nou hot-seat in 2008 despite only a year of coaching experience in charge of Barcelona B. As in Manchester, an era of history-making success followed.
“One of the reasons I extended my contract two times is because Txiki is here,” Guardiola said in 2021. “We work together incredibly well. When we win, we try to analyse why. When we lose we try to analyse why. We don’t judge the other one. We both work for the best for this club.”
City have confirmed that Hugo Viana will join from Sporting CP as their new director of football. The former Newcastle and Braga midfielder will work alongside Begiristain in a handover period over the second half of this season before taking the reins for 2025/26.
Guardiola has worked under other sporting directors before. Begiristain left halfway through his four-year Barcelona tenure, while he was not involved at all when his great friend won three Bundesliga titles in as many seasons at Bayern.
There would undeniably be an appealing narrative flourish to Begiristain and Guardiola leaving town together, arm in arm having conquered all before them. But the Athletic, who broke the news of Begiristain’s departure, said his intentions had been known to City since earlier this year.
Given the closeness of their bond, it is implausible that Guardiola was not aware of this. If he has not made up his mind, he has been mulling options with full knowledge of Begiristain’s next move.
Viana’s appointment has also led to a new favourite to succeed Guardiola emerging. Ruben Amorim joined Sporting in 2020 and has since won a pair of Portuguese league titles. Having a director of football and head coach in perfect sync has worked very well for City in the Begiristain-Guardiola era and perhaps there would be logic to an entirely clean break.
Viana has developed a big reputation in his homeland of Portugal and City will hope he can keep their success going, working alongside Pep Guardiola.
Bernardo has been quoted by Portuguese media outlet Record as giving a brief but positive verdict on Viana.
He said: “I don’t know him personally, but being Portuguese it will be positive for us.”
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Will Pep Guardiola leave if Man City are guilty in Premier League 115 charges case?
After Uefa banned City from its competitions for two years in February 2020 for breaches of Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules the Premier League champions took their case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), Guardiola said he would leave City if it turned out chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak, CEO Ferran Soriano or any of the other Eastlands top brass had lied to him over alleged wrongdoing.
This has been referred to frequently as a sort of “gotcha” as City’s legal jousts with football’s authorities rumble on.
Surely, if he’s a man of his word and City are found guilty in their 115 case with the Premier League, Guardiola has to go?
Leaving aside the fact that managers are not under oath at press conferences and will sometimes say things for dramatic effect, we can be certain this is not how Guardiola views things. When CAS overturned City’s ban in July 2022 and found the most serious allegations of inflating sponsorship with ownership funds to be either unproven or time-barred under Uefa rules, that was a moment of vindication in the eyes of the manager.
No, they were not “completely innocent” as Guardiola claimed because City had to pay a fine for not cooperating with Uefa’s investigation. But assessing Guardiola’s public pronouncements since, it seems clear that he views the CAS ruling as the gold standard. The subsequent allegations from the Premier League are simply mud being slung over old ground.
“Like Julius Caesar said, in this world there are not enemies or friends, just interests.,” Guardiola said during a remarkable press conference in the aftermath of the Premier League charge sheet dropping. He sees jealous rivals trying to bring City down by off-field means, CAS having already settled everything.
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It’s absolutely fine to disagree with Guardiola’s assessment of how the land lies, indeed many do. However, it’s fair to conclude the 115 case does not really factor into his thinking as a result. Similarly, the idea that he would stay and manage City in League One if they are severely punished? See the above regarding dramatic effect.
City’s Premier League case will remain before an independent panel into November 2024 with a verdict to come months after.
In all probability, Guardiola will have made a final decision on his future by then. City deny all allegations of impropriety and remain completely confident behind the scenes that they will prevail. If anything around the 115 case will have influenced Guardiola’s decision, it is that strength of conviction that he shouldn’t worry about it at all.
