A couple of days following the Pac-12’s announcement that it had poached San Diego State and three other current Mountain West programs to join Oregon State and Washington State in the revival of the conference, potentially as soon as 2026, the Aztecs will face former member Cal in Berkeley. The Bears are now ACC members, are rumored to be a team the new-look Pac-12 would be interested in having back alongside Stanford, and come off an impressive win at Auburn as a 12.5-point underdog.
San Diego State was blanked by Oregon State 21-0 in its first game against an FBS opponent this season and arrives in Northern California as a heavy underdog on the odds boards at online sportsbooks.
SDSU is under new leadership since Sean Lewis took over for the retired Brady Hoke following a disappointing 4-8 season and remains a few weeks away from his MWC opener, so time is on its side as it seeks improvement in its first road game of the season.
Cal plays its first ACC game next week at Florida State, so it will be looking to build on its upset of the Tigers to remain unbeaten prior to its second September cross-country trip.
The Bears are just 4-4 against San Diego State lifetime, and no road team has ever prevailed in the series. The last matchup came in 2016 and produced a 45-40 Aztecs win, although Cal covered as a 7-point road ‘dog. The Bears had won the previous year 35-7 in the first meeting between the schools since 1996. This showdown is one of the three latest starts on Saturday night’s college football schedule (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
San Diego State vs. California odds: Spread, moneyline, total for Week 3 college football matchup
Cal opened as a 17.5-point favorite and moved to 18.5 during early wagering. The total opened at 49.5 but was bet down and held steady at 48 at most shops through the first few days of betting.
Here are live Week 3 college football betting odds for San Diego State vs. California at top-rated US sports betting apps.
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San Diego State betting news and analysis
There’s concern that starting QB Danny O’Neil, a true freshman from Indiana who beat out redshirt freshman Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson and FSU transfer AJ Duffy, will be able to play at Cal. He played every snap in SDSU’s shutout loss to Oregon State but was seen practicing this week with a left knee brace after being injured against the Beavers.
O’Neil will likely be a game-time decision, and Lewis wouldn’t divulge who among his other options would get the call if his preferred starter can’t go. Neither has attempted a pass this season, although Tupou’ata-Johnson did get a drive and ran for seven yards in the Aztecs’ 45-14 season-opening win over Texas A&M-Commerce. The Aztecs trailed the Lions 6-3 at halftime and needed a pair of defensive touchdowns to secure separation.
O’Neil, the first QB to open the season as the starter in SDSU’s history since moving up to Division I, threw two TD passes and finished 22-for-33 for 214 yards. He was 11-for-24 vs. Oregon State last Saturday, throwing for only 107 yards, but wasn’t picked off. RB Marquez Cooper, who played at Ball State last season but is very familiar with Lewis since he was the featured back in his offense at Kent State from 2020-22, is SDSU’s primary weapon.
California betting news and analysis
Cal is hoping that top RB Jaydn Ott plays on Saturday, but he was limited by an ankle injury at Auburn, finishing with just 11 yards on 10 carries. Javian “Jet” Thomas (pictured above), whose fourth-quarter TD run provided the game-winning margin for the Bears, would get additional touches if Ott can’t go.
A pair of other wide receivers, projected starters Tobias Merriweather and Kyion Grayes, will miss their third games of the season and remain “week-to-week,” according to head coach Justin Wilcox. Nyziah Hunter has emerged as the top target for sophomore QB Fernando Mendoza. Offensive linemen Will McDonald and Sioape Vatikani, are also expected to sit.
San Diego State vs. California prop bets
Here is a sampling of SDSU vs. Cal prop bets from DraftKings.
- SDSU team total: Over 14.5 -110, Under 14.5 -130
- Cal team total: Over 33.5 -120, Under 33.5 -115
- Race to 20 points: Cal -700, SDSU +550, Neither +900
- Total TDs: Over 5.5 -125, Under 5.5 -105
- 1H spread: Cal -9.5 (-122), SDSU +9.5 (+102) O/U: 24.5
San Diego State vs. California prediction: Low-scoring game in the cards
Given the uncertainty the Aztecs face at quarterback and Cal’s top playmakers all potentially being sidelined, the defenses should have the edge in Berkeley. The total has already been bet down slightly but remains plenty high enough for the UNDER to thrive.
