The NFL offseason serves as a time for football fans to build confidence around their favorite team and fall in love with the moves they made to establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders.
NFL clubs are consistently rebuilding, retooling, and strengthening their rosters in the hopes of eventually winning the Lombardi Trophy. It’s no easy task — especially for the teams hunting for a franchise quarterback — but every offseason, most NFL fans are at least able to convince themselves their favorite team has some chance to make a postseason run.
But let’s be honest: certain NFL teams each season have no real chance to win the Super Bowl.
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Sure, the occasional team will come out of the blue to establish themselves as a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl. The 2021 Bengals stand out as one of the best longshots to log a long playoff run in recent memory.
However, for the most part, the NFL’s longshots merely compete for wild-card berths or surprise division titles, at best. They don’t get all the way to the Super Bowl, and their fans are more likely to care about where their NFL Draft picks fall by December than where they are in the wild-card standings.
With that in mind, these 11 NFL fan bases can probably consider a Super Bowl 59 title a fantasy as they look to cheer on their favorite squads during the 2024 NFL season.
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Teams with no chance to make Super Bowl 59
(All odds and win totals listed are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Patriots
- Super Bowl odds: +30000
- Win total: 4.5
The Patriots haven’t enjoyed much success in the post-Tom Brady era, and their struggles figure to continue in 2024.
New England is coming off a 4-13 record in 2023, and while they have more offensive upside thanks to the addition of No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye, the UNC product is raw and may need time to develop. Even if he sees the field for a majority of the season, the Patriots lack a proven No. 1 pass-catching and are weak at the tackle position.
That could make life difficult for Maye as he looks to jumpstart what was the NFL’s second-worst scoring offense with a paltry 13.9 points per game average.
New England’s defense should continue to be solid, but it isn’t clear how much Bill Belichick’s departure will hurt the unit. Jerod Mayo was promoted from within to keep continuity on that side of the ball, but can the team overcome Matt Judon’s departure and Christian Barmore’s blood clotting issue? If not, their pass rush could be weaker than expected.
The Patriots also play in the tough-looking AFC East, so anything better than a fourth-place divisional finish would be a big-time surprise. Expect them to have one of the worst records in the NFL, barring a surprisingly great first year from the Maye and Mayo combination.
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Broncos
- Super Bowl odds: +25000
- Win total: 5.5
The Broncos have reason for long-term optimism amid Bo Nix’s strong performance during the 2024 NFL preseason, but their short-term outlook isn’t quite as good.
Denver is still recalibrating itself to fit Sean Payton’s image. The Broncos spent the offseason retooling, and they notably moved on from quarterback Russell Wilson as part of their plan. However, Wilson came with a record dead cap hit of $ 85 million, which handcuffed Denver’s ability to sign players.
As a result, the Broncos lost numerous starters during the offseason. Center Lloyd Cushenberry III and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy represent the two offensive departures while four starters on defense, including former All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, will need to be replaced.
While Wilson’s release should eventually benefit the Broncos, it isn’t easy to plug as many holes as the Broncos have in a single offseason. They look like one of the NFL’s worst teams, but if Nix pans out, they could have potential as a wild-card contender in 2025.
But that’s a big if.
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Panthers
- Super Bowl odds: +25000
- Win total: 5.5
After Bryce Young endured a terrible rookie season for the Panthers, Carolina hired Dave Canales as its head coach, hoping that the quarterback guru — who worked wonders with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield — could quickly turn around Young’s young career.
The Panthers have committed a lot of resources to their offense in 2024 to make that happen. They dished out $ 153 million in contracts to guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to protect Young, traded for Steelers top receiver Diontae Johnson, and spent a first-round pick on big-bodied pass catcher Xavier Legette.
General manager Dan Morgan’s offensive moves were astute, but they came at the cost of trading the team’s top defensive player — pass rusher Brian Burns — to the Giants. Carolina will try to replace Burns with a rotation featuring Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum.
Clowney and Wonnum are starting-caliber players, but they don’t have the same quick-twitch athleticism as Burns. Add in that the Panthers don’t have much depth beyond Jaycee Horn at cornerback, and it’s easy to imagine Ejiro Evero’s defense taking a step back in 2024.
The Panthers won’t be able to withstand that — even if it’s just a small one — and make any sort of playoff run.
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Titans
- Super Bowl odds: +15000
- Win total: 6.5
The Titans surprised many when they fired Mike Vrabel after the 2023 NFL season. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year had gotten a lot of out Tennessee’s roster during his six-year tenure and many believed he would be given another shot to lead them with an improved supporting cast.
Instead, former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan joined the fold, bringing Super Bowl-level experience to the team. Callahan will now look to take a team with a second-year starting quarterback to the big game, something he and Zac Taylor did with Joe Burrow in 2021.
But Will Levis isn’t Joe Burrow. The Titans’ quarterback showed flashes of arm talent as a rookie, but the second-round pick wasn’t consistent. He will benefit from better protection and an upgraded weapons group that features Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard, but can he perform well enough to take Tennessee’s offense to the next level? That will determine Tennessee’s ceiling.
Either way, the Titans don’t look like a Super Bowl contender. They may be a scrappy bunch that could work their way into the wild-card mix, but more likely, Levis will endure some growing pains while the team’s defense may take some time to settle in after the change from Vrabel to new coordinator Dennard Wilson.
Giants
- Super Bowl odds: +15000
- Win total: 6.5
Watching Daniel Jones play quarterback often feels like the opening to a movie where the frame will freeze and a character will wonder aloud, “You’re probably wondering how I got into this situation.”
Jones has consistently had to run for his life in the NFL, as he has taken 179 sacks — more than three per game — across 59 regular-season starts. His penchant for taking sacks, plus his 40 interceptions and 46 fumbles, have created some head-scratching lowlights for the 2019 first-round pick.
Unless Jones has made wholesale changes to his game while recovering from a torn ACL suffered last season, his mistakes figure to catch up to him again Maybe Malik Nabers’ presence and the signing of a few new offensive linemen will help the Giants’ offense, but the departure of Saquon Barkley should offset any gains.
Regardless, it simply doesn’t seem like Jones is the type of quarterback who can win a Super Bowl without an elite supporting cast surrounding him. The only elite unit the Giants have is their defensive line, which is headlined by Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence, and Brian Burns.
That won’t be nearly enough to make them playoff contenders. It might not even get them out of the NFC East’s cellar.
Commanders
- Super Bowl odds: +12000
- Win total: 6.5
The Commanders have more reason for optimism than their divisional counterpart in New York. Jayden Daniels has the makings of a potential franchise quarterback and could inject a Robert Griffin III-type energy into Washington.
Dan Quinn may be able to do the same as he gets a second crack at a head coaching job. There already seems to be more excitement building in Washington as the Commanders look to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Daniels and Quinn may get the Commanders into the wild-card hunt in the relatively weak NFC, but mounting a Super Bowl run is an unreasonable ask. Washington underwent a great deal of roster turnover as Quinn and general manager Adam Peters took over for Ron Rivera, so the Commanders probably need time to jell early in the season.
Also, it’s worth noting that no rookie starting quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl. Daniels has the talent needed to buck that trend, but his supporting cast isn’t quite there yet. The Commanders are still building up their offensive line while their secondary remains an issue, particularly at cornerback.
Like the Broncos, the Commanders look like a team that could make some noise in 2025, but for 2024, they figure to merely be a pesky opponent with a quality, dual-threat quarterback heading up their offense.
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Raiders
- Super Bowl odds: +10000
- Win total: 6.5
The Raiders are going to be better than most think and seem like a good bet to go over their projected win total of 6.5.
The reason? Las Vegas’ defense made massive strides last season under Antonio Pierce, and the addition of Christian Wilkins to their already fearsome defensive line will give Maxx Crosby the best interior rushing partner he has had during his career.
The Raiders also have a solid-looking offense, as Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are an underrated receiving duo. Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer give the team a nice one-two punch at tight end, so they have the tools needed to complement their strong-looking defense.
Why are the Raiders on this list with all of that working in their favor? It’s all about the quarterback. Gardner Minshew has some Ryan Fitzpatrick-like qualities in his skill set, and he will be able to keep his team competitive most of the time. But against higher-end competition, the Raiders figure to fall short unless their defense can shut down the opposing offense.
Minshew and Aidan O’Connell may still play well enough for the Raiders to sneak into the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Playing in the AFC West won’t help their cause, however, as they will have to play a couple of top-tier quarterbacks — Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert — twice.
All that’s to say that the Raiders may be underrated, but that isn’t going to make them a legitimate Super Bowl threat yet.
Saints
- Super Bowl odds: +10000
- Win total: 7.5
The Saints have been trying to stay afloat since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 NFL season. That has involved frequent salary cap gymnastics, cap casualties, and contract restructures that have seen some of their core figures leave them as free agents.
Eventually, the wheels will fall off for the Saints as they push their salary cap reckoning further and further into the future. That time may come in 2024.
The Saints’ talent exodus has whittled down their once-strong offensive line to a relatively unproven group. They will be relying on rookie first-round pick Taliese Fuaga and 2021 first-round pick Trevor Penning at offensive tackle, and the latter has struggled badly during his career to date. If he can’t shape up, Derek Carr may find himself under a lot of pressure this season.
It’s also noteworthy that Alvin Kamara is entering his age-29 season. The veteran running back averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last season, so if his production continues to deep, the Saints might end up being more one-dimensional on offense than the team hoped.
New Orleans’ defense is still good, and its linebacker trio of Demario Davis, Willie Gay, and Pete Werner is particularly impressive. That may be enough to get the Saints around .500 — where they have hovered since Brees’ retirement — but it’s hard to imagine them mounting a legitimate Super Bowl challenge given the current state of their roster.
Cardinals
- Super Bowl odds: +8000
- Win total: 7.5
Any hope for the Cardinals to stay competitive hinges on the health of Kyler Murray. The No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft missed nine games last year while recovering from a torn ACL but eventually led Arizona to a 3-5 record in eight starts.
That may not seem like much, but Arizona was lost without Murray. If he can stay healthy for an entire season, the Cardinals will be a tough team to beat week in and week out.
That said, Murray hasn’t played a full season since he suited up for 16 games during the 2020 NFL season. Trusting him to stay on the field is a risky proposition, and if he is replaced by Clayton Tune or Desmond Ridder, Arizona’s playoff hopes will quickly evaporate.
The Cardinals also have a leaky-looking defense that doesn’t have much pass-rushing talent. Jonathan Gannon should be able to coach up the front seven a bit, but Monti Ossenfort and Co. probably need one more offseason to fully restock Arizona’s roster before the Cardinals can emerge as any sort of playoff threat.
Vikings
- Super Bowl odds: +8000
- Win total: 7.5
The Vikings’ ceiling was always going to be tied to J.J. McCarthy, so his season-ending, preseason meniscus tear was a brutal blow to Minnesota. Now, the Vikings will be forced to rely on Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback without a quality alternative behind him.
Darnold may fare well as Minnesota’s starter. He has a 4-3 record in his past seven starts and completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 1,440 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions over that span. The Vikings have a great group of weapons led by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones, so Darnold should be fine, especially behind a solidly built Vikings offensive line.
That said, Minnesota’s defense is still a work in progress, as Brian Flores is working to find quality defensive backs to pair with Byron Murphy Jr. If the Vikings can’t defend the pass well, they may not have the consistent firepower needed to win in shootouts against top-tier teams. It also welcomes the potential for Darnold to have some blow-up games given his turnover-prone nature.
The Vikings also play in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions. The Lions and Packers are expected to make the playoffs while the Bears have become a sleeper darling after drafting Caleb Williams. That puts the Vikings fourth in the NFC North power rankings, and that seems right for the club that is likely to hang around .500 in a best-case scenario.
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Seahawks
- Super Bowl odds: +5500
- Win total: 7.5
Mike Macdonald was one of the top-rated coaching candidates of the 2024 hiring cycle, but he faces a tall task in replacing Pete Carroll in Seattle.
Carroll established a culture for the Seahawks and routinely got his roster to outperform expectations. He helped orchestrate the Russell Wilson trade to make Geno Smith the starter and routinely had Seattle in the playoff picture.
Macdonald will be tasked with keeping that culture intact while installing his own systems and schemes. That should work well for the Seahawks’ young, talented defense, but it remains to be seen how the team’s offense will fare under his watch.
Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is making the jump from college to the pros while Seattle is hoping that its latest offensive line retool — featuring new center Connor Williams, veteran guard Laken Tomlinson, and third-round draft pick Christian Haynes — can protect Smith well. Meanwhile, Smith will turn 34 during the 2024 season and will hope to return to his 2022 Pro Bowl form after a solid but unspectacular 2023.
All told, there’s a lot of volatility in Seattle this season. If all goes well, they could certainly be in the wild-card conversation, as they were last year.
But if Macdonald endures any bumps in the road as he replaces the popular Carroll, Seattle could find itself merely battling the Cardinals to avoid finishing in the divisional cellar.
