The 2024 NFL season might be the ultimate make-or-break campaign for Giants QB Daniel Jones, who enters his sixth year as a pro with a 22-36-1 record. His over/under stat projections suggest oddsmakers are cautiously optimistic he can take a step forward — but do any of his OVER bets yield value?
A lot has happened to the G-Men this offseason — some good, some not so good. Of the most notable departures, tight end Darren Waller retired and Saquon Barkley signed with the division-rival Eagles. Noteworthy additions include stud first-round rookie wideout Malik Nabers, veteran receiver Allen Robinson II, and former Bills running back Devin Singletary.
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The big changes in New York’s offensive depth chart — combined with the lowest expectations the Giants have had in years coming off a six-win season — have landed Jones seventh on the Comeback Player of the Year odds for 2024. In all it’s terribly surprising, considering two of the top three Comeback candidates this past season were veterans Joe Flacco (who won) and Baker Mayfield.
Could this be the year Jones figures everything out and gets the Giants back to the playoffs for just the second time in the past seven years? Here’s Danny Dimes’ most notable season-long player props for the 2024 NFL season, and which way to bet each of his over/under projections.
Daniel Jones 2024 player prop bets: Passing yards
Odds from BetMGM.
- OVER 2,675.5 yards: -120
- UNDER 2,675.5 yards: +100
Best bet: OVER 2,675.5 yards (-120)
Let’s face it: last season couldn’t have gone much worse in terms of the Giants’ passing game. Jones tore his ACL in November. Darren Waller, who was supposed to be a prized pass-catcher in Brian Daboll’s system, barely played due to injury and underwhelmed when he did make the field. Wan’Dale Robinson served as the No. 1 receiver most of the season, and Barkley got hurt late in the year. U-G-L-Y.
If Jones can get back to full health by the start of the season, he should be able to best this modest projection now that Nabers, ARob, and Singletary are in town. Dimes would hit the OVER with 157.4 yards per game if he plays the whole season, 178.4 per game if he misses two games.
Jones averaged just 151.5 passing yards per game over his abbreviated six-game 2023 season, but well over 200 two years ago when New York won nine games. With much more balance expected from the skill positions around him this year than any Giants QB enjoyed last season, a 2,676-yard passing campaign seems like a very good bet.
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Daniel Jones 2024 player prop bets: Passing TDs
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- OVER 16.5 (+100)
- UNDER 16.5 (-125)
Best bet: UNDER 16.5 (-125)
Now here’s the spot to bet Danny Dimes’ UNDER. While we expect the Giants’ offense to move more like it did in 2022 and less like it did in 2023, we also don’t think New York suddenly fixes its touchdown issue in one season. Especially with veteran red-zone threats Barkley and Waller gone, getting the ball into the end zone via the pass could be as difficult as ever for Big Blue.
Nabers is a human highlight reel — and he can win 50/50 balls left and right — but at 6-0, 200 he’s not a massive end-zone target so his max feels like 7-8 TDs if everything goes swimmingly.
Allen Robinson has just four TDs over the past three seasons. Singletary has just four over his entire five-year career, the same amount Barkley accrued in just 14 games last season. Don’t bank on Jones finishing with one pass TD per game in 2024, never mind playing 17 games given his age, injury history, and propensity to run.
