With the smoke still clearing from the Boston Celtics’ NBA Finals championship celebration, the league moves forward on Wednesday with the 2024 NBA Draft (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/TSN). The biggest betting question ahead of the two-day event — which player will the Hawks select at No. 1 overall?
Last year was the second-biggest draft-day lock of the 21st century behind LeBron James — the Spurs were always going to pick generational big man Victor Wembanyama. This year draws closer parallels to the 2022 NBA Draft that saw Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr. flip-flop in and out of odds-on favorite at No. 1.
Banchero ultimately went first overall in that draft. Could a similar turn of events occur this year with top prospects Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr or even Donovan Clingan?
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So, who do the BetMGM odds suggest will get selected first overall? Let’s check them out, and then discuss which player makes for the best bet ahead of Wednesday night’s festivities.
2024 NBA Draft odds: 1st overall pick
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Player | Odds |
| Zaccharie Risacher | -250 |
| Donovan Clingan | +210 |
| Alex Sarr | +550 |
| Stephon Castle | +1800 |
| Reed Sheppard | +800 |
2024 NBA Draft odds: Betting favorite
Zaccharie Risacher (-250)
Since the news broke this week that Alex Sarr reportedly refused to work out for the Hawks, France’s Risacher has become the odds-on favorite to land in Atlanta at No. 1 overall. Sarr, meanwhile, has dropped all the way to third in the first pick odds, behind UConn big man Donovan Clingan.
Sarr not showing up to work out for Atlanta must feel like deja vu for Hawks fans. Luka Doncic, who has the same agent as Sarr, also opted to not work out for the ATL in 2018. The Hawks ultimately selected him, but traded him to Dallas for Trae Young. That lends credence to the possibility of Sarr getting drafted and dealt if other teams covet him, but it would come as a surprise given that he hasn’t moved the rumor needle much of late.
Since Risacher’s impressive workout in Atlanta last week, he has been the name most widely associated with the No. 1 pick. In fact, many reports have linked him to other teams and their interest in pursuing a trade-up to select him. That feels like an added sense of security to betting Risacher, who already seems like a good fit and a high-value building block for the Quin Snyder-led Hawks (worth noting: Snyder and Kyle Korver personally went to see Risacher play in Paris last month).
Risacher stands an athletic 6-10 with decent handles, a good shot, and solid off-ball defense. He’s also 19, so his potential to grow alongside Trae Young and/or Dejounte Murray seems high. As a solid shooter with size, he checks a lot of boxes for an Atlanta team that could really use a power wing who can score. Here’s betting the Hawks make a Frenchman the top pick for the second straight year.
MORE: Why there’s no real consensus at No. 1
2024 NBA Draft odds: Dark horse
Donovan Clingan (+210)
It’s Clingan — not Sarr — who yields the second-shortest odds to go No. 1. The 7-2 UConn product has a combination of size, strength, and rim protection possessed by few current NBA players. He’s also a proven winner, having stepped up in a major way in back-to-back Huskies championship runs. Still, it’s difficult to see Atlanta drafting a center over a wing scorer when the Hawks already have Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, and Bruno Fernando on the books.
Of course, there have also been rumblings that Clingan could slip out of the top three, never mind just get passed over at No. 1. The prevailing reported rumors around the Wizards is that Sarr will be their smash-pick if Atlanta goes with Risacher, as Sarr represents more long-term upside and fills the rim-protection and interior-scoring void left after Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford’s respective departures from D.C. The plus odds here might be tempting, but remember that Risacher is -250 to go first overall for a reason.
MORE: Why Clingan has been linked to No. 1 pick
2024 NBA Draft odds: Sleeper
Alex Sarr (+550)
This isn’t an exercise in getting all three names into an article — it’s yet another way of relaying the fact that nobody quite knows exactly what will happen on Wednesday night.
None of these three prospects stands head-and-shoulders above the other two like Wemby did (literally and figuratively) above Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson last year. And while Sarr not working out for Atlanta means it’s unlikely he will be a Hawk next season, it also doesn’t preclude him from being selected No. 1 overall and traded.
Oddsmakers obviously like Risacher to go No. 1 to the Hawks, but don’t forget about the situation two years ago in which millions of bettors got smoked with the Paolo/Jabari chaos. If you feel you have a solid read on who will go No. 1, you might be better off putting a smaller stake in a top-three exacta — that way you risk less while standing to profit more.
