The 2024 Formula One season returns with the first of seven European races in a row from June through to early September, and that long summer on the continent begins at the iconic Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the 65th Spanish Grand Prix.
Max Verstappen got back to winning ways at the end of a sensational contest in Canada last time out, pipping British trio Lando Norris, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton to the top of the podium and bouncing back from a disappointing 6th-placed finish in Monaco two weeks prior.
Going into a race that he won by over 24 seconds ahead of Hamilton in 2023, Verstappen sits a comfortable 56 points clear in the World Drivers’ Championship standings. Unlike much of last year though, the 2024 campaign is turning out to be far from the simple, one-man show that saw the Dutchman win 19 of 22 allotted races 12 months ago.
Nine meetings into the 24-race 2024 calendar, Verstappen has not had everything his own way, and while he’s still finished top of the podium six times, he’s already failed to win as many races as he did last year and hasn’t recorded a fastest lap-time since the Japanese Grand Prix in round four.
In Canada, the Dutchman did get some luck, with Ferrari duo Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz both being unable to finish the race following engine trouble and a respective collision. Sergio Perez also crashed out as three of Verstappen’s closest challengers failed to close the gap by winning any championship points.
Sainz in particular will be hoping for a better showing in his final home race as a Ferrari driver before being replaced by Hamilton in 2025, as another Spanish legend of F1 in Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso will look to build on his sixth-placed finish in Canada to move closer to the podium places.
As the 10th race of the 2024 F1 season approaches, The Sporting News have gone through all the odds offered by our partner bookmakers to come up with the best bets, tips and predictions you’ll need ahead of the latest edition of the Spanish Grand Prix.
F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024 odds to win
He’s back to winning ways, and back to being the overwhelming week-to-week favourite ahead of the next meeting in Spain: Max Verstappen is way out in front with his odds to claim another victory at the Circuit de Barcelona-Cataluyna this weekend.
The Dutchman’s moneyline lean of -200 is a further shortening of the odds from BetMGM, who have placed McLaren’s Norris way back at +450 despite him being second favourite. Charles Leclerc’s odds are almost double this amount at +700, and there’s another big jump to the rest of the chasing pack.
Oscar Piastri stands at a huge +1400 moneyline to win in Spain, and despite massively improved performances and three fastest-lap times in a row, Mercedes duo Hamilton and Russell’s odds swing to +1800 and +2000 respectively, with Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz also level on a +1800 moneyline lead with Hamilton.
Sergio Perez has also fallen out of the favourites with BetMGM, and having failed to finish at both Monaco and Montreal stands at a +2500 moneyline to win. Another huge jump sees Fernando Alonso close out the top nine on +8000, with a chasm between the rest of the 20 drivers who are all at moneyline leans of +30000 or higher.
| Driver | US (BetMGM) |
| Max Verstappen | -200 |
| Lando Norris | +450 |
| Charles Leclerc | +700 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1800 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1800 |
| George Russell | +2000 |
| Sergio Perez | +2500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +8000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +30000 |
| Lance Stroll | +30000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 |
| Alexander Albon | +100000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +100000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +100000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +100000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +100000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +100000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +200000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +200000 |
Odds via BetMGM (USA), correct as of Thursday, June 20 2024.
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F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024: Best bet
- Pick: Mercedes to record the fastest lap of the race
- Moneyline lean: +300 (BetMGM)
A trend has emerged in recent races that could have Red Bull and Ferrari increasingly looking over their shoulders – the re-emergence of Mercedes. After a relatively slow start to the season by Hamilton and co’s previous standards, he and Russell have hit the fastest laps at each of the last three races in a row, moving further and further up the grid each time.
Russell at Emilia Romagna and Hamilton in Monaco and Canada respectively have both flown through sections of the race to record these efforts, and were rewarded in Montreal last time out with Hamilton finishing fourth and Russell making the podium behind Verstappen and Norris.
BetMGM’s moneyline lean of +300 is still behind favourites Red Bull (evens) to claim the fastest lap time in Spain, but given the rapidly improving form of both Russell and Hamilton lately, either one of the pair could well claim that extra Championship point once again.
F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024: Prop bet
- Pick: Lando Norris to qualify in pole position
- Moneyline lean: +450 (BetMGM)
While not cantering to victory in every single race – as had been the scenario for almost the entirety of last season – Verstappen had still made a habit of dominating in qualifying so far in 2024, starting atop the grid in the first seven consecutive races of this campaign.
However, Leclerc and Russell have both pipped the Dutchman to pole in each of the last two races, with the former going on to win in Monaco. While BetMGM still have Verstappen as the overwhelming favourite to start in first, second-favourite Norris’ moneyline lean of +450 suggests that he could well be the next driver to knock him off top spot.
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F1 Spanish Grand Prix 2024: Flier bet
- Pick: A winning margin between 8 and 9.999 seconds
- Moneyline lean: +500 (BetMGM)
The dominance of Verstappen in 2023 was perhaps best highlighted by the massive margin in which he won last year’s Spanish Grand Prix, beating second-placed Hamilton by over 24 seconds to tighten his grip at the top of the World Drivers’ Championship standings.
The Dutchman still leads the way in this regard by a healthy distance in 2024, but the last few races have shown that the chasing pack are getting closer to restoring some semblance of balance between the different racing teams.
As such, and after each of the last four races were won by less than eight seconds, we think this year’s Barcelona meeting could be one in which Verstappen’s huge path to victory will be shortened significantly, and while BetMGM are offering outside odds of a +500 moneyline lead, we think this is one scenario which could come to fruition.
