There’s really nothing you can look at across Will Smith’s stat sheet and complain about. The 2024 season has been his best in a number of ways. There is one thing that the Los Angeles Dodgers’ backstop is doing more frequently than he ever has, though: swinging.
While never a fixture of discipline, Smith has generally been a patient hitter. In the first four years of his career, his Swing% sat in the low 40s and in the low 20s against pitches outside of the strike zone. His career BB%, as such, came into the year just a touch under 11 percent. A reasonable figure, though not one anyone would mistake for elite.
This year, however, has illustrated a deviation from Will Smith’s career norms in the patience game.
His Swing% is up at 48.7 against a career 43.5 average. While his in-zone swinging hasn’t moved much (a mere one percent increase), his rate on pitches outside the strike zone has jumped, with a 31.5 percent mark that is more than five percent against his career average. It’s a fairly logical development, as Smith is swinging at far more offspeed & breaking pitches. Those pitch types have a larger tendency to end up outside the strike zone.
The interesting part of the leap in swing rates is that it hasn’t hurt Smith’s ability to make contact. In fact, he’s better than ever in that respect. His 84.0 Contact% is his highest this side of the shortened 2020 season. Each of his in-zone (88.7) & out-of-zone (75.8) contact rates are roughly two percent above his career averages. His whiff rate (7.8) is also identical to his career average. Contact quality hasn’t been hurt, either. Smith’s 46.1 HardHit% is just a shade below the career mark he set in 2020.
Above all, the trend speaks to Will Smith’s ability as a hitter. More aggression leading to higher rates & quality of contact isn’t something easily achieved. Additionally, the Dodgers have enough patience elsewhere in their lineup that it’s not as if they need Smith to be a fixture of discipline.
In fact, given his typical place in the lineup and the lack of length behind him, it stands to reason that the version of Smith putting a higher volume of balls into play is actually the ideal one for this Dodgers team.
