The second round of the WNBA playoffs is set, and one of the Aces or Liberty will not advance any further. The two championship favorites are set to meet in a rematch of last year’s finals, which the Aces took 3-1.
Will the fate of the Liberty be the same this season? They’ve made improvements, leading to the best record in the WNBA and home-court advantage.
The Aces didn’t look quite as good in the 2024 regular season as in their previous championship years, slipping to the No. 4 seed. Even so, they still have MVP A’ja Wilson in their quest for their third straight ring.
We have you covered with everything you need to know about this year’s 1-vs-4 matchup in the WNBA.
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Liberty vs. Aces prediction
The two best players in the WNBA are going to be going at each other in this series. On one end is Wilson, who had perhaps the best regular season in the league’s history. On the other is Breanna Stewart, who won last year’s MVP and already has two championships to her name.
Whichever star wins this series will become the favorite to win a third ring against either Minnesota or Connecticut.
Jonquel Jones is also a former MVP-winner and is going to be a handful for the Aces. She’s had some huge games against them. So has Sabrina Ionescu. This Liberty team does not lack talent.
While the Liberty have maintained their excellence from last season, the Aces have slipped. It is hard to win three championships in a row — fatigue starts to catch up at some point. Making things even harder for Las Vegas is that six of its players competed in the Olympics, including Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young as part of a deep gold medal run. Only two Liberty players, Stewart and Ionescu, participated.
The Liberty have had a huge rebounding edge in 2024, averaging 8.7 offensive rebounds per game to just 2.0 for the Aces in their meetings. They have looked dominant in three regular-season games.
This should be a close series. But given the rebounding edge and home-court advantage, the Liberty should pull through.
Prediction: Liberty in five
Liberty vs. Aces odds
Here are the series odds via BetMGM:
- Aces: +125
- Liberty: -150
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Liberty vs. Aces regular season series
New York and Las Vegas met three times during the 2024 regular season. The Liberty won the season series 3-0.
- June 15: Liberty 90, Aces 82
- Aug. 17: Liberty 79, Aces 67
- Sep. 8: Liberty 75, Aces 71
In their first meeting, Jones scored a career-high 34 points while a skidding Aces team fell to 6-6 on the season. The Aces were missing Gray and couldn’t find enough offense to compete without her.
The second meeting featured a balanced attack between Ionescu, Stewart and Jones. The Liberty’s stifling defense held the Aces to just eight points in the second quarter, and they ran away with the game in the fourth.
The final meeting between the two was the closest. It came with the Aces missing Wilson. The Liberty almost blew a 20-point lead, giving up an 18-1 run, but pulled it out late.
MORE: 2024 WNBA Playoffs schedule, TV channels and more
Liberty vs. Aces storyline: Have the Liberty improved enough from last year?
This is not the same Liberty team that lost in last year’s finals. And they were starting to get better towards the end of that series. The Aces blew the Liberty out in Games 1 and 2 before New York won Game 3. The Liberty then lost a heartbreaker by one point in Game 4.
The big addition for the Liberty has been rookie Leonie Fiebich. She’s brought shooting and defensive versatility, hitting a sterling 43.3 percent of her 3s off the bench and moving well for her 6-4 size.
Jones has had a better year, making the All-Star team and increasing her scoring average from 11.3 points to 14.2. She’s been a stronger shooting threat, hitting 39.1 percent of her 3s, while providing bruising scoring inside.
This Liberty team also has a deeper bench. Marine Johannes was a quality reserve who left the WNBA, but Kennedy Burke and Fiebich have bolstered that group.
That should be enough of an improvement to get them past the Aces this time.
MORE: Why A’ja Wilson didn’t win WNBA MVP in 2023
Liberty vs. Aces schedule
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| Sunday, Sep. 29 | Game 1 at Liberty | 3 pm | ABC |
| Tuesday, Oct. 1 | Game 2 at Liberty | TBD | TBD |
| Friday, Oct. 4 | Game 3 at Aces | 9:30 pm | ESPN 2 |
| Sunday, Oct. 6 | Game 4 at Aces* | TBD | TBD |
| Tuesday, Oct. 8 | Game 5 at Liberty* | TBD | ESPN 2 |
*If necessary
