The biggest matchup of Champions League matchweek one takes place at the legendary San Siro as AC Milan host Premier League side Liverpool to begin the new league phase of the expanded UEFA competition.
The old group stage is scrapped and the competition has been rearranged as the new-look Champions League begins play. These two sides were matched up with Liverpool as a Pot 1 side and AC Milan as a Pot 2, making this one of the marquee games to follow.
AC Milan have struggled to start the season but managed to pummel newly promoted Venezia 4-0 on Saturday to snatch their first win of Serie A play. Christian Pulisic is in fine form, with two goals and two assists through four matches thus far, including one of each in the weekend win.
Liverpool, meanwhile, started strong but slipped over the weekend, falling embarrassingly to Nottingham Forest at home on Saturday for the first time in over a half-century. It was the first setback for new manager Arne Slot who is still getting his feet under him at Anfield.
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AC Milan vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+270)
- Score prediction: AC Milan 2-2 Liverpool
Liverpool might have looked explosive in their first three season-opening wins, but have been tame since. The 3-0 win over Man United felt emphatic but came on 11 shots worth 1.79 xG, including two goals on four shots worth 0.69 xG before halftime.
After over-performing in front of goal, they regressed against Nottingham Forest and held off the scoresheet with 14 shots worth 0.94 xG. That’s a concerning level of production against a poor defensive side at home, despite having a fully healthy squad.
While Milan haven’t looked strong to this point, they can score goals at a level that might force Liverpool to keep up, even if the Reds are more structured defensively under Slot than they were under Jurgen Klopp.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| AC Milan win | +250 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Liverpool win | +100 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -225 N: +150 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: +115 U: -160 |
| Liverpool -0.5 goals |
-125 |
| AC Milan +0.5 goals |
-115 |
AC Milan vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date: Tuesday, September 17, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
- Referee: Espen Eskas (NOR)
- Last meeting: AC Milan 1-2 Liverpool (Dec. 7, 2021 | Champions League)
AC Milan vs. Liverpool best bet
- Pick: Over 3.0 total goals
- Odds: -130 (DraftKings)
Both these sides can score goals. While Liverpool have been decent defensively, they are up against a Milan side that has scored nine goals in four Serie A games thus far.
It’s the defensive end that AC Milan has struggled with. While they finally kept a clean sheet against Venezia on the weekend, they still did nearly concede a goal that was eventually ruled out on VAR. It’s only a small step in the build towards being more defensively stout, and against a talented Liverpool side, that could be a challenge.
AC Milan vs. Liverpool prop bet
- Pick: Christian Pulisic to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +160 (FanDuel)
There’s been no better or more valuable player on AC Milan to begin the season than American playmaker Christian Pulisic, who has been electric with four goal contributions in four games. He also added a goal for the USMNT during the international break against New Zealand, indicating his current form is translatable.
While +300 odds to score a goal seems enticing, his prolific creative abilities are just as valuable and still give over 3/2 value.
