In this betting preview:
After 35 straight weeks of PGA TOUR golf, they took a week off. As we all collectively caught our breath, the TOUR reloaded for an eight-week fall run. The FedEx Cup Fall starts this week in Napa, California at the Procore Championship, for which we will provide the best bets and top props of the weekend.
This is the old Fortinet/Safeway event. The Silverado Resort is still the host, and 144 players will be playing for more than making the cut and a $ 6 million purse. The top 50 in FedEx Cup points from January through August are guaranteed a PGA TOUR card for 2025 along with signature status. Those outside the top 50 must play themselves inside the top 125 to play in 2025.
There are eight official events this fall to earn points. The TOUR followed this same format last fall (SHOCKER!). Believe it or not, there is one new event — but the other seven we have grown to know (and love) for years in the autumn months.
September hosts just one event. October has four tournaments spread throughout the southwest and Japan, and November gives us the final three along the water. Even the onslaught of football can get monotonous at times. If it doesn’t, then enjoy the weekday golf again and check scores on Sunday night. The TOUR is back and that means time for win number 11 this year!
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Procore Championship, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
The Procore Championship: Expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Maverick McNealy (+2200 on FanDuel)
Stanford standout Mav McNealy has enjoyed a very well-rounded 2024 campaign. Known for his putter, Mav has really improved his ball striking. Since returning from injury last fall, he has eight top-25 finishes. The driver has really become a weapon to go alongside his flat-stick.
McNealy was the runner-up to Max Homa at Silverado in 2021, and he’s very comfortable on California courses. What better way to cap a great run than with a win? An excellent par-4 player, McNealy ranks top 10 in the field for BoB% and putting prowess on Poa annua greens. Take that cash complement of characteristics straight to the ticket window!
Best finishing position bet: Mac Meissner to finish top 20 (+220 on FanDuel)
Most haven’t heard of McClure (Mac) Meissner. The Korn Ferry star has stood out as an exceptional ball striker in his rookie PGA TOUR season. Meissner has six top 20s since April, and he can seriously go low, as he demonstrated when he finished fourth at the Barracuda in July.
Over his past five starts, Meissner has gained an average of three strokes against the field with his approach game. That level of proximity presents tons of birdie chances, and his recent positive trends with the putter reinforce the value here at +220. This top-10 flusher is going to have a great fall, so get in on him now.
Best head-to-head bet: Matt Kuchar over Doug Ghim (-105 on BetMGM)
Kuchar made a serious playoff run at the end of the season, gaining an average of five strokes on the field over his past five events. Twelfth at Wyndham and third at 3M, Matt now heads to Silverado where he finished seventh and 12th the last two years.
Ghim also has two top 20s in Napa over his last four starts. The dilemma for Doug is the putter. A faulty flatstick has kept him from finishing inside that top 20 since THE PLAYERS in March. Continue with “Kooch” to take down Ghim at the Procore Championship.
The Procore Championship: Live odds to win
Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Sahith Theegala | +1100 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1200 |
| Corey Conners | +1400 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2000 |
| Max Homa | +2000 |
| Luke Clanton | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +3000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +3000 |
| Brendon Todd | +3300 |
| Harris English | +3500 |
| Tom Hoge | +3500 |
| Eric Cole | +4000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +4000 |
| Beau Hossler | +4500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +4500 |
| Adam Svensson | +5000 |
| Chan Kim | +5000 |
| Doug Ghim | +5000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +5000 |
| Mac Meissner | +5000 |
| Matt Kuchar | +5000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +6000 |
| C.T. Pan | +6600 |
| Patrick Fishburn | +6600 |
| Sam Stevens | +6600 |
| Andrew Putnam | +6600 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +6600 |
| Matti Schmid | +6600 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +6600 |
| Nick Taylor | +6600 |
| Rico Hoey | +6600 |
| Daniel Berger | +8000 |
| John Keefer | +8000 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +8000 |
| Neal Shipley | +8000 |
| Alex Smalley | +9000 |
| Ben Silverman | +9000 |
| Cameron Champ | +9000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +9000 |
| Hayden Springer | +9000 |
| Justin Lower | +9000 |
| Lucas Glover | +9000 |
| Michael Kim | +9000 |
The Procore Championship: Conditions, winning trends
I like the North Course at Silverado because it forces tour pros to hit elite shots. The race to 20 under par on a tight and twisting layout really shows how good these guys are. Many will miss the cut, but watching players hit approach shots from that 125-175 range is fun. Pay attention to proximity. With scoring irons in hand, the best will knock down the flag a dozen times per round. Small tangent, but how many times do you absolutely flag one? Once a nine, a round, a week, a month, a season? Imagine hitting 12-14 approaches right at your target. That’s what we are looking for this week.
Second skill is putting yourself in position to attack the flag directly. You cannot get caught in the trees. Silverado is one of the least penal courses for just missing the fairway. Hit the rough near the fairway edge and you can still attack. Miss by a wide margin and you are forced to save par after a pitch out. The North Course can be positional at times off the tee and a little experience has proven to be a big benefit. Speaking of experience, I also love to look at the Barracuda Championship leaderboard. Those greens are just like Silverado and players who play well at one tend to contend at both.
The last five winners averaged a positive five strokes against the field with their flatstick. These greens are pretty small. Capture a GIR and you will have a solid birdie chance. Poa can be a frustrating surface to play on. Successful California players tend to own west coast leaderboards just for that reason. It is imperative this week to score. I’m tailing players who have their putting going already. Events like the Procore are a sprint. One player will be eight under (or more) the first day and six or more will be in double digits after 36-holes. Aggressive putters play well here and they don’t hold back.
The North Course has four par 5s that hold a 37% birdie average. Make the easy sub-par scores when you can and give yourself a goal of getting to 10 under par on these 16 holes for the four round week. Both back nine par 3s have water in play. Pay attention to those and the two on the front. In recent years, the winners have made some moves on the 3s. Three of the last five champions have gained over three and half strokes on the short ones. In the end, finding the fairway and playing these medium to short length par 4s is really the straightest path to success. There’s only ONE par 4 over 450 yards.
Coincidentally, Robert Trent Jones Jr. designed Silverado’s North Course. The Solheim Cup is being contested at one of his dad’s finest works (Robert Trent Jones Golf Club). It’s not hard keeping up with these Joneses. Silverado is very straightforward and the weather looks prime for a great event. I have a couple guys on our card that look ready to do some serious damage this fall. While most betting pundits leave golf to tout football, we won’t. The past couple years we have grabbed five fall wins. Forget the Fortinet, it is now the Procore and our last preview before we head up north for the Presidents’ Cup!
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The Procore Championship course overview: North Course at Silverado
The Silverado Resort’s North Course has hosted the PGA TOUR since October of 2014. A staple of the fall schedule, it has seen several name changes, but the venue has held up. The par 72 layout measures 7,123 yards. It owns the standard complement of four par 3s and 5s and 10 par 4s. At 7,100 yards, it is a short course and one that has seen some scoring over the years.
The average winning total over the past five years is 19 under par. The average Friday cutline to the top 65 and ties is two under par in that same time frame. Players will score here, but they also make bogeys. The last five winners averaged 23 sub-par scores. Believe it or not, at just over seven thousand yards, bogey avoidance is a necessary thing on the North Course.
Average green size is 5,400 sq/ft and since we are back in California, they are covered in a Poa annua – Bentgrass blend. Two holes have water in play and there are 53 bunkers scattered throughout. Most of the fairways are tree lined. That’s really where most of the bogeys happen. Players must keep the ball between the trees. You can miss the fairway by a small margin and still score. Get the ball way offline and you will have the weekend off. Recent winners have been very good drivers of the golf ball. Solid ball strikers over all, but most of them share that theme.
We expect very seasonal weather in wine country. Crisp to start each day in the low 50s and then 85-90 degrees for a high. The forecast calls for 8-12 mph winds mainly from the south. This is significant, because 15 of the 18 holes run either north or south. Limiting the amount of cross winds these players will face will help them find fairways. The scorecard has nine par 4s under 435 yards. Guys will need to attack if they plan on keeping up. As a fall event, many of the strokes gained leaders on the North Course are not big names. The average pre-tournament winner’s odds over the last decade is +7900.
Twenty-four of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing along with six players from the two Presidents’ Cup teams. I’m concerned those names might be looking ahead, as such my interest lies in those who have tremendous win potential. The fall tends to crown new winners. In 2023, tournament officials changed the course routing. Holes 8 through 17 have been reassigned. The regular hole numbers are in parenthesis.
- Hole 8 (12), hole 9 (13), hole 10 (14), hole 11 (15), hole 12 (16), hole 13 (17), hole 14 (8), hole 15 (9), hole 16 (10), and hole 17 (11).
Last year, the change led to an exciting finish over the weekend. The final seven holes now have two par 5s and two par 4s under 375 yards. No lead is safe as closers can make a serious move as they approach the clubhouse. Making course changes like this improved the event. The FedEx Cup Fall should be about innovating inside the competitions. I’m not looking to change the game, but what the Procore team here did made a difference and it improved the viewing experience.
I expect to see some urgency from the middle tier this week. Ten signature spots are also available after these eight tournaments. We have all seen what those can do for FedEx points and career earnings. Let’s get back to work and continue to build upon our successful 2024 season.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 36 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
