The Celtics once again have the opportunity to close out the Mavericks and clinch the 2024 NBA Championship, this time in Game 5 of the Finals back in Boston (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Mavs will be looking to simply stay alive and send the series back to Dallas for Game 6.
The Sporting News BetMGM live betting blog will focus exclusively on this championship clash. We will provide best bets ahead of the game, and then dole out live score updates, betting lines, odds, picks and advice throughout the entirety of this evening’s contest.
The Celtics have cruised to a 15-3 record this postseason, and a collective certainty seems to remain that Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and company will finish the job and secure Boston’s 18th NBA title. Despite the Game 4 hiccup, BetMGM still lists the Celts with -3000 odds to win it all, with Jaylen Brown the -225 favorite to win Finals MVP.
MORE: What Game 4 taught us | How the rout ranks historically
No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, and only one out of 156 has even dug out of a three-game hole to force a Game 7. But the Mavs showed a real fight on Friday night, and with the health of Boston big man Kristaps Porzingis still questionable, it seems crazy to completely count them out.
Plenty of bets on the individual Game 5 market yield value — as will wagers on the live-betting market during the game. The Sporting News’ betting team is here for the action before, during and after Game 5, as it has been all series.
Those familiar with the SN BetMGM live blogs know how this all works — here’s the rundown for anyone new to the party:
- We highlight the best bets and top props on the day of the game so you can lock in value well ahead of the opening tip
- We offer live betting advice, provide game and score updates, and relay intriguing betting lines and over/under props throughout the game
- We close out the night detailing our hits and misses, going over the results of the game as well as the Sporting News best bets both pregame and live
Let’s keep the fun rolling and unveil the top BetMGM betting picks for Game 5 of the Celtics-Mavs NBA Finals. Good luck, have fun, and see you back here at game time!
Celtics at Mavs: Game 5 score, highlights
This is where the Sporting News’ live betting blog will post updates and offer live up-to-the-minute betting advice during Game 5.
Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5 score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total | |
| Celtics | |||||
| Mavs |
Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5 updates, live-betting recommendations
7:50 p.m.: Here’s how the BetMGM public betting report shakes out for Game 5, in terms of moneyline (ML), spread (ATS), and over/under (O/U) bet and handle percentages (Bet/ticket percentage = % of ML, ATS, or O/U bets made on that team. Handle percentage = % of ML, ATS, or O/U money bet on that team).
| Team | ML | % bets | ATS | % bets | O/U | % bets |
| Mavs @ | +230 | 21% | +6.5 | 16% | O 210.5 | 60% |
| Celtics | -300 | 79% | -6.5 | 84% | U 210.5 | 40% |
Our mindset remains the same: Boston will win tonight but fail to cover the spread. Both teams are treating this as a must-win situation, whether or not Jayson Tatum admitted it in press conferences this weekend. No way Dallas lets the Celtics run away with this one — but no way Boston lets the Mavs steal a second-straight W with the second one coming at TD Garden.
7:30 p.m.: One hour until game time. Here’s the most bet player props for Game 5:
- Sam Hauser under 2.5 rebounds (-165)
- Payton Pritchard under 1.5 assists (-140)
- Luka Doncic under 32.5 points (-110)
- Josh Green over 2.5 rebounds (-150)
- Kyrie Irving under 23.5 points (-110)
Betting the UNDER on Hauser rebounds — especially with juice — seems risky. He has gobbled up three-plus rebounds in three of the four games this series, and Kristaps Porzingis is still hurt. Even when Hauser’s shot has been off, he has contributed in other ways — his minutes and boards won’t suddenly drop out.
The Pritchard assist over/under and Josh Green rebounding over/under seem too volatile either way. Much of the time, he puts the onus on himself to shoot and score with the basketball more so than create for others. Doncic and Irving scoring UNDERs, meanwhile, should not be bet in elimination games. These are two of the most deadly clutch players in NBA history — bet against them at your own risk.
Celtics at Mavs: Game 5 best bets
These are the Sporting News’ top betting picks ahead of Game 5. As the game draws closer, we will add bets and props to this list and offer live-betting advice and picks throughout the game. Check back early and often for more top bets.
Celtics to win first half and game (-130)
The Mavericks getting 6.5 points after coming alive in Game 4 seems scary — but not as scary as betting against the Celtics at home right now. Boston has won 45 of its 51 games at TD Garden since the start of the 2023-24 season, an NBA-best .882 home winning percentage. Its average home scoring margins, +8.7 at halftime and +14.3 full-time, also both serve as league-high marks.
Even better, the Celtics have gone 16-4 following a loss since the start of the NBA season — and Joe Mazzulla seems to have his guys doing everything but hanging their heads after the Friday night fizzle-out. Tatum and company seemed loose, focused, and unfazed in their pressers this weekend, all signs that nerves won’t wind them up on Monday evening.
Still nervous about the whole first half and game thing? The Celtics have yet to lose a first half at home this postseason. You read that right: they’re 8-0-2 across 10 first halves at TD Garden during these playoffs. Unbeaten in first halves and 45-6 in full games at home!? Sounds like as solid a Game 5 combo bet as you can make.
Both teams to score 25 points in the 1st quarter (+120)
Both Dallas and Boston have scored 25-plus points in three of four first quarters during this series. The Mavs were held to just 20 points in Game 1 in Boston, while the Celtics were limited to 21 in Game 4. Other than that, we’ve seen some barn-burning opening frames.
The proverbial monkey seems to be off Kyrie Irving’s back, now that he’s won his first game in 13 tries against Boston since stomping on its logo and burning sage at the TD Garden. Luka always seems to play best at the start of the game, when he’s most energized. The Celtics always seem focused in the first frame of a contest directly following a loss.
All the factors add up to both teams scoring 25-plus in the first quarter of Game 5. With plus odds, this feels like far too much value to pass up.
‘The bright lights’ SGP (+160)
- Luka Doncic to score 30+ points
- Jaylen Brown to score 25+ points
With everything on the line in an elimination/clinching game, expect the stars to shine the brightest on the game’s biggest stage. Both these players have easily served as their team’s MVP through the past two rounds, and they should also be the main catalysts in Game 5.
Combining these alternate player props in a mini-SGP allows us to get plus odds while also shaving down Doncic’s projected over/under from 32.5 to 30. Luka has scored 30-plus in 10 of 21 playoff games, but 33-plus just five times. Trimming down 2-and-a-hook matters in these instances, especially in Boston against what should be a swarming defense.
As for Brown, who has been crucial in big moments all postseason long, 25 already feels like value. He has hit that mark in nine of Boston’s 18 games, and he shoots considerably better at home than he does on the road (52.4/39.5/77.5 compared to 47.7/31.6/63.9). JB puts the cherry on top of a masterful postseason run and wins Finals MVP.
Sam Hauser rebounds: OVER 2.5 (+125)
Another prop with plus odds that yields crazy good value, Hauser OVER 2.5 rebounds almost feels like a lock.
After a tough stretch earlier in the playoffs, the sharpshooting reserve seems to have his stroke back. And with or without his three-ball going down, he has been working hard during his 13-16 minutes.
Hauser now has three-plus boards in three of Boston’s past four games, a trend he should continue this evening with Porzingis once again either out or limited.
Dante Exum points: OVER 2.5 (-125)
The lesser-known players often yield the best value because they garner the least betting activity. Sportsbooks will never price the over/under of a player averaging right around the fewest minutes for his squad, because it won’t help or hurt the book’s bottom line very much.
Sounds like a value opportunity! Exum has given Jason Kidd’s squad a much-needed spark off the bench of late, even slamming down an exclamation-point dunk in Game 4. Look for the veteran to benefit from getting aggressive early and often once again in Game 5.
