Included in this betting preview for Monday, April 29:
The 2024 NBA Playoffs have been action-packed, and this weekend provided some exciting finishes for both fans and bettors. As the first round moves into Monday evening’s triple-header, plenty of betting value can be found on BetMGM.
The West-leading Thunder and reigning-champion Nuggets can both wrap things up tonight with their opening-round series against the Pelicans and Lakers, respectively.
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An OKC victory would be the first sweep of the postseason, while the Nuggets’ gentleman’s sweep would mark the second year in a row that Denver eliminated LeBron James and the Lakers.
In Miami, the East-leading Celtics will look to move out to a commanding 3-1 lead over the Heat. Erik Spoelstra’s squad punched Boston in the mouth in Game 2, but the Celts responded with a huge 20-point Game 3 win at Kaseya Center.
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With the favorites seeing some strong lines, it’s imperative to do the extra research and find value on the betting market. Here’s some high-value moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers to make on BetMGM for Monday’s NBA playoff action.
Best NBA playoff picks and spreads tonight: Top ATS bet
Nuggets -7.5 at Lakers (-105)
The Lakers have battled in this series — and props to them for avoiding the sweep in Game 4 and forcing Denver to try for the closeout again in Denver — but for the second postseason in a row, Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are flat-out too good from top to bottom for Los Angeles to prevail.
The mile-high altitude and raucous home crowd at Ball Arena make things far too difficult for Denver’s opponents, especially teams like the Lakers that simply don’t move the ball or shoot as well. The Nuggets went 33-8 at home this season, and they have emerged victorious in 11 of their past 12 postseason games at home.
Michael Malone has the reigning champions playing arguably the best basketball we’ve ever seen out of a Denver team. The Nuggets aren’t just a prime candidate to exact yet another series sweep — but one of the best bets to once again win the entire thing.
What many fail to note, too, is that when LeBron loses in elimination games, he tends to lose by a lot. In eight of the past nine games that King James has been knocked out of the playoffs, the knockout game scoring margin has been over 7.5 points. The average margin of loss in those elimination games: 11.5 points. This one’s over, and the reserves should be on the floor by the waning minutes.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 111, Lakers 102 — Denver wins (-275) and covers the spread (-7.5) while the score finishes UNDER the total (216.5).
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Best NBA playoff picks tonight: Top moneyline bet
Thunder halftime/full time ML at Pelicans (-105)
The Pelicans have fought like hell without Zion Williamson, and they could very well cover the +4.5 spread tonight and make OKC’s closeout game close. That’s why the halftime and full-time moneyline offers solid value — all you need with that play is a lead of any kind at the end of each half.
Since going into intermission of Game 1 tied, the Thunder have won five consecutive halves over the Pelicans. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his young-gunning teammates never let up the pace, they never stop firing, and they never seem to take a defensive possession off. Bet on OKC taking care of business tonight and outscoring New Orleans in both halves while the brooms come out.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 104, Pelicans 102 — Oklahoma City wins (-190) but New Orleans covers (+4.5), with the score finishing just UNDER the total (206.5).
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Best NBA playoff picks tonight: Top over/under bet
Celtics at Heat: OVER 203.5 (-105)
The Celtics stifled the Heat in Game 3, beating their rivals 104-84 and retaking momentum by moving out to a 2-1 lead. Miami had a dreadful shooting night, shooting just 41.6-percent from the floor.
Expect some positive regression in the scoring department from both teams this evening. The Celts and Heat combined to shoot 20-of-65 from three-point land in Game 3 (30.7%), far worse than either team typically shoots.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the OVER has gone 35-30 in Celtics games following a win. With Boston motivated to go back home up 3-1 and Miami scratching and clawing to stay alive, the pace and amount of threes taken should both be high. Enjoy the discounted total and smash the OVER.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 106, Heat 102 — Boston wins (-550) but Miami covers the spread (+10.5), and the game finishes OVER the total (203.5).
Best NBA playoff picks tonight: Top player prop bet
Jayson Tatum (Celtics at Heat): UNDER 26.5 (-102)
Tatum continues to get harassed by the physical nature of the Heat’s perimeter defenders, and for the second straight year he looks very uncomfortable against Miami in the postseason. He’s averaging just 24.3 points per game on 42.6-percent shooting and 5-of-21 from three-point land.
Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White have been the true catalysts to Boston beating Miami, and that narrative should remain strong as long as Erik Spoelstra has his squad living in JT’s head rent-free. The UNDER feels very safe in this game, especially at Kaseya Center where Tatum hasn’t exceeded 26 in three tries this season.
NBA playoff spreads tonight: Full odds board
All times are p.m. ET on Monday. Road teams listed first. All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Celtics @ Heat |
7:30 | BOS -550; MIA +400 |
BOS -10.5 (-110) |
203.5 |
| Thunder @ Pelicans |
8:30 | OKC -190; NO +155 |
OKC -4.5 (-115) |
205.5 |
| Lakers @ Nuggets |
10:00 | DEN -275; LA +230 |
DEN -7.5 (-105) |
216.5 |
NBA playoff bracket 2024
