The 2024 NFL Draft is set to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, as a strong crop of quarterbacks is expected to create chaos near the top of the first round.
What do we know entering the draft? Caleb Williams is going to be the first pick. After that? The first three selections are expected to be quarterbacks, but it isn’t clear in which order Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy will come off the board.
Once the top three picks are known, the real madness will begin, as several teams may be interested in moving into the top five to acquire their players of choice in this year’s class.
Quarterback-needy teams like the Vikings, Broncos, and even the Giants might consider moving up if the right signal-caller is available. Other teams are keeping a close eye on a talented receiver class in case any fall further than expected.
As always, there will be a handful of teams looking to trade down and improve their odds of finding solid contributors with more picks at their disposal.
Which potential trades are the ones to keep the closest eye on come draft night? Sporting News is breaking down the teams that are most likely to move up and down the board Thursday and what they could target in any potential deal.
MORE NFL DRAFT: Big board top 200 | 7-round mock draft | Mock with trades
NFL Draft trade rumors 2024
Cardinals trade down from No. 4… and then trade up
It doesn’t seem likely that any of the top three selections in the 2024 NFL Draft will be moved despite the Patriots’ insistence that they are “open for business” at No. 3. That makes the Cardinals’ selection at No. 4 overall the first spot to watch for a trade-up.
Many have assumed that the Cardinals will take Marvin Harrison Jr. with this pick, and they certainly could. That said, Arizona is executing a rebuild and has many needs, so general manager Monti Ossenfort might be willing to move down while targeting another receiver in a deep class.
It’s also possible that the Cardinals are among the teams that are more interested in Malik Nabers than Harrison. If that’s the case, they could trade down with a quarterback-needy team (more on that later) before ultimately targeting Nabers with their new pick. That could involve trading down and then trading back up, which is something Arizona did last year when it selected Paris Johnson Jr. No. 6 overall.
Either way, it seems like the Cardinals are open for business, so Arizona’s pick may be the hotbed for any team looking to move up to grab a quarterback.
Chargers trade down from No. 5
If the Cardinals stay put and take a receiver, the Chargers will be positioned to capitalize on a top-five trade-down. Los Angeles is rumored to be targeting a top offensive tackle or a wide receiver, but they will have good options at both positions even if they move outside of the top 10.
The Chargers have a new brain trust in coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Horitz, so they might like to acquire as many picks as possible to reshape their team’s roster. Trading down would also likely allow Harbaugh’s quarterback at Michigan — J.J. McCarthy, whose praises Harbaugh has been singing — to become a top-five pick.
Harbaugh might relish an opportunity to make that happen, especially if it nets the Chargers some future draft capital that can accelerate their rebuild.
Giants trade up from No. 6 for J.J. McCarthy
On the surface, this might sound crazy. The Giants have many holes on their roster — especially along the offensive line and at receiver — and are just one season into Daniel Jones’ four-year, $ 160 million contract. Could they really consider replacing him with an early pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Well, apparently, the answer is yes. There is buzz that McCarthy “is the play the Giants want,” per Connor Hughes of SNY.
The Giants may hope that McCarthy makes it to their pick at No. 6, but if they are hell-bent on getting him, they could be willing to trade up a couple of slots to ensure that will happen. That would be an interesting strategy, as McCarthy would have to overcome many of the issues Jones has failed to overcome in New York to succeed.
But also, Jones was selected by the previous regime, so if Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll want to bring in their guy to run the show, they could be willing to take on that risk.
2024 NFL DRAFT TOP 10 LISTS: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | EDGE
Bears trade down from No. 9
The Bears are going to take Caleb Williams No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, but it’s a bit less clear what they will do at No. 9 overall. Chicago could emerge as a landing spot for Rome Odunze if a run on quarterbacks drops him down the board, but trading down seems like a solid option for the Bears, as well.
Chicago did well to address many of its needs in free agency and via trade, re-signing Jaylon Johnson, signing D’Andre Swift, and trading for Keenan Allen to create a dynamic receiving tandem along with DJ Moore. The Bears could continue to add to their receiving corps with Odunze or Brock Bowers with the ninth pick, but the team’s bigger needs are at defensive end and center.
The Bears could target players like Jared Verse or Graham Barton at nine, but each would be a reach as a top-10 selection. Thus, trading down would be in Chicago’s best interest, and with many teams seeking high-end tackle and receiver upgrades, the Bears should find a willing trade partner.
Vikings trade up from No. 11 for J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye
If any team is going to trade up for a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it will probably be the Vikings. Minnesota moved to acquire a second first-round pick (23rd overall) well before the draft began, signaling they were open for business as they hunt for a Kirk Cousins replacement.
Regardless of whether you use the Jimmie Johnson trade value chart or Rich Hill’s version of it, the Vikings would be able to package their picks together to move up as high as No. 4 overall with relative ease. That puts them in the driver’s seat in any potential trade negotiations with the Cardinals and Chargers.
The Vikings currently have Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall as the only quarterbacks on their 90-man roster. Adding a player like McCarthy in a trade-up would clearly make sense for Minnesota, as he would provide a much higher ceiling than any of their current passers.
It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has an intriguing connection to Drake Maye, as the team’s quarterbacks coach, Josh McCown, coached the UNC product in high school. If the Commanders or Patriots choose McCarthy and that causes Maye to slip, the Vikings would likely be the team that is both most willing and able to move up for the potential-packed prospect.
Broncos trade up from No. 12 for J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix
The Broncos are another team that should be desperate to trade up, as their only quarterbacks going into the 2024 NFL Draft are Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. That could position them to make a deal with the Cardinals or Chargers, but it will be harder for them to do so than Minnesota.
Why? The Broncos have the 12th overall pick but lack a second-round pick because of the Sean Payton trade they made with the Saints. That means they’ll have to dip into their 2025 draft pick coffers to create an enticing trade offer.
Still, Denver’s brain trust — and specifically, general manager George Paton — is under pressure to find an impact quarterback after the failed Russell Wilson experiment. That could cause the Broncos to get desperate as they assess their options at the position. McCarthy should probably be their top target, but if he’s off the board, Denver will likely target Nix.
The Broncos shouldn’t need to trade up to get Nix, but if quarterbacks start flying off the board, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them guarantee they can get him with a small trade-up.
NFL DRAFT RUMORS: Drake Maye | Jayden Daniels | J.J. McCarthy
Rams trade up from No. 19 for Byron Murphy, Laiatu Latu
Strange but true: the Rams haven’t had a first-round pick since the 2016 NFL Draft when they selected Jared Goff with the No. 1 overall pick. Many have wondered whether Les Snead would continue to uphold his “F— them picks!” mantra, but Los Angeles might actually want to consider trading up from the 19th pick this year.
The Rams lost Aaron Donald to retirement during the 2024 offseason and need to add some pass-rushing reinforcements to replace him. Texas’ Byron Murphy may represent the best plug-and-play replacement Los Angeles could find for Donald in the draft, but he might not be on the board when the Rams are picking. Teams like the Seahawks and Bengals could consider adding the talented defensive tackle with their selections ahead of the Rams.
That’s why it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Los Angeles move up the board, especially if it can jump over divisional rival Seattle to nab a player the Seahawks might like. If Murphy goes earlier than expected, the Rams could pull a similar trade-up to get Laiatu Latu, who had 23.5 sacks in his two college seasons at UCLA.
Bills trade up from 28 for a WR like Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr.
The Bills traded Stefon Diggs and lost Gabe Davis to free agency during the 2024 offseason. They signed Curtis Samuel to help offset their losses, but they still need to add a true No. 1 receiver to their roster. The only problem is that even in a deep receiver class, one might not be on the board for them at 28.
Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze all figure to be top-10 picks in this year’s draft, and LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. may ultimately go in the top 20. Ideally, Buffalo could find a way to move up and land one of those top playmakers to create a dynamic partnership with Josh Allen. Perhaps if the Bills are willing to take a big swing, they could move up to No. 9 with the Bears and take aim at Odunze.
That may not be the typical M.O. of Bills general manager Brandon Beane, but Buffalo needs a shot in the arm. A dynamic playmaker could provide them with just that, so making a big trade-up for one of the top four receivers can’t be discounted. If the Bills can’t pull that off, they could still consider a smaller deal to guarantee that they’ll land Adonai Mitchell.
49ers trade up from 31 for Brandon Aiyuk replacement
The 49ers are another team that could trade up for a receiver, and with good reason. Brandon Aiyuk appears to be growing increasingly disgruntled with the team and may demand a trade out of San Francisco. If that happens, the 49ers will need to add another weapon to their receiver room to go with Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings.
San Francisco might be content to stay at 31 and target a speed demon like Xavier Worthy, who could fill the role the team hoped Danny Gray would after making him a third-round pick in 2022. However, if the 49ers trade Aiyuk to a team with an earlier selection like the Colts (15), Jaguars (17), or Steelers (20), then perhaps they could bake in a pick swap that would give them a chance to pick earlier in the first round.
Even if the 49ers keep Aiyuk, they could trade up to get insurance behind him. The 2020 first-round pick will be a free agent after the 2024 NFL season, and with a big-money extension looming for Brock Purdy, San Francisco might be keen to lower the overall cost of their receiving corps by getting another top player on a rookie contract.
