The Thunder came out of a rebuild with pressure to at least make the playoffs in a crowded Western Conference this season. That goal has already been accomplished.
Oklahoma City is going back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, with a star-studded young core headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
And after such a successful regular season, the Thunder aren’t interested in simply showing up to the playoffs. They’ve proven they have a chance to make a deep run, and every win down the stretch could help as Mark Daigneault’s team chases the No. 1 seed in the West.
Winning in the playoffs with a young core, particularly relative to other contenders, is difficult. It becomes easier with home-court advantage, which makes landing a top-two seed critical for Oklahoma City’s hopes.
Here are the seeding scenarios for the Thunder over the final week of the regular season.
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Thunder playoff scenarios 2024
There are only four seeds still in play for the Thunder entering the final week of the regular season, and the good news for Oklahoma City fans is that their team will have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs regardless of what happens the rest of the way.
The Thunder also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Clippers, so falling to the No. 4 seed would require Oklahoma City losing each of its last four regular season games and the Clippers winning all four of theirs.
So, what has to happen for the Thunder to earn the No. 1 seed? Oklahoma City would win a head-to-head tie with the Nuggets, meaning the easiest path for the Thunder (who sit a game behind the Nuggets and the Timberwolves as of April 9) would be gaining a game on Denver while gaining two games on Minnesota.
Minnesota holds head-to-head tiebreakers over the Thunder as well as the Nuggets.
In the event of a three-way tie, which is distinctly possible, the tiebreaker would be determined by Wednesday’s matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. If the Nuggets win it, the Thunder would then hold the advantage in a three-way tie. If the Timberwolves win it, a three-way tie would place Oklahoma City behind Minnesota.
Between head-to-head scenario and three-way scenario, Thunder fans will want to root against the Timberwolves more than they want to root against the Nuggets. Because of tiebreakers, it’s tougher for Oklahoma City to overtake Minnesota.
Thunder standings 2024
The Thunder entered Tuesday third in the West with a 53-25 record. Oklahoma City trails both the Timberwolves and Nuggets by one game with four to play for each team.
| Seed | Team | Record | Games back |
| 1 | Timberwolves | 54-24 | — |
| 2 | Nuggets | 54-24 | — |
| 3 | Thunder | 53-25 | 1 |
| 4 | Clippers | 50-28 | 4 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 48-30 | 6 |
| 6 | Suns | 46-32 | 8 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 46-32 | 8 |
| 8 | Kings | 45-33 | 9 |
| 9 | Lakers | 45-34 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Warriors | 43-35 | 11 |
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Thunder remaining schedule
The Thunder have four games remaining in the 2023-24 regular season to decide their playoff seeding. All four of them are at home, so Oklahoma City won’t play on the road again until Game 3 of their first-round series.
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| April 9 | vs. Kings | 8 p.m. |
| April 10 | vs. Spurs | 8 p.m. |
| April 12 | vs. Bucks | 8 p.m. |
| April 14 | vs. Mavericks | 3:30 p.m. |
Thunder potential playoff opponents
Because the Thunder can still land anywhere between the No. 1 seed and the No. 4 seed in the West, it’s still too difficult to tell who their first-round opponent will be.
If the standings finished exactly as they are at the moment, Oklahoma City would host the Suns in the first round. Both teams can still move up or down, however. If the Thunder jump to a top-two seed, their opponent won’t be determined until the play-in tournament.
