The Western Conference is a powerhouse once again, and the Warriors are suffering from the consequences.
Golden State is 43-35 with four games remaining in the season but is just the 10th-best team in the West. A 43-win season would have earned the No. 7 seed last season — not to mention the Warriors still have four games left.
Stephen Curry leads a familiar cast with Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. Chris Paul joined the team in the offseason, serving as a backcourt pairing to rookie Brandin Podziemski off the bench. Jonathan Kuminga has been the major difference for this year’s Warriors from previous editions. The third-year forward is averaging 16.4 points per game, up from 9.9 last season.
Despite Kuminga’s development alongside rookies Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, the Warriors are just sneaking into postseason play and will likely need to battle through the Play-In Tournament to continue their dynasty.
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Warriors playoff scenarios 2024
The Warriors are currently the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference, a drop from last season’s No. 6 finish.
On the bright side, Golden State cannot fall any lower than the 10th seed, but its probability of rising the standings is low.
The Warriors have four games remaining in the regular season and finish as high as the No. 6 seed. That said, the probability of reaching the No. 6 seed is 0.1 percent, according to Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report.
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How Warriors can clinch the No. 6 seed in the West
The Warriors would need to leapfrog the Suns, Pelicans, Kings and Lakers in order to avoid the Play-In Tournament. To do so, they’d need to win their remaining four games as well as significant help from other teams.
Here’s Golden State’s path to the No. 6 seed:
- Warriors finish 4-0
- Suns finish 0-4
- Pelicans finish 1-3, defeating only the Kings
- Kings finish 1-3, defeating only the Suns
- Lakers finish 1-2, defeating only the Grizzlies
It’s a complex list and unlikely outcome, which is why the probability is 0.1 percent.
Warriors Play-In Tournament tiebreakers, explained
Tiebreakers also play a significant role in the final standings, so here’s how they look from the Warriors’ perspective:
- Suns 3, Warriors 1
- Kings 2, Warriors 2: Kings own division tiebreaker record
- Pelicans 1, Warriors 1: One game remaining
- Warriors 2, Lakers 1: One game remaining
Golden State can win the season series against the Pelicans and Lakers with wins over both teams.
The more likely scenario is that the Warriors make the Play-In Tournament. They’d qualify as long as they are a 7-10 seed, and they’ve already clinched a top-10 seed in the West.
Here’s the probability for each seed with four games remaining in the regular season:
- No. 6: 0.1 percent
- No. 7: 1.1 percent
- No. 8: 4.8 percent
- No. 9: 27.0 percent
- No. 10: 67.0 percent
If the seeding stays as is, the Warriors would play the Lakers in the first round of the Play-In Tournament and the winner of Pelicans vs. Kings in the second round.
Warriors standings 2024
The Warriors are locked in as a top-10 seed in the Western Conference.
| Seed | Team | Record | Games back |
| 1 | Timberwolves | 54-24 | — |
| 2 | Nuggets | 54-24 | — |
| 3 | Thunder | 53-25 | 1 |
| 4 | Clippers | 50-28 | 4 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 48-30 | 6 |
| 6 | Suns | 46-32 | 8 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 46-32 | 8 |
| 8 | Kings | 45-33 | 9 |
| 9 | Lakers | 45-34 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Warriors | 43-35 | 11 |
Warriors remaining schedule
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| April 9 | at Lakers | 10 p.m. |
| April 11 | at Portland | 10 p.m. |
| April 12 | vs. New Orleans | 10 p.m. |
| April 14 | vs. Utah | 3:30 p.m. |
How does the NBA Play-In Tournament work?
The Play-In Tournament will begin following the regular season before the playoffs. The top six seeds in each conference are exempt as they have secured a playoff spot already.
The 7-10 seeds will play for the final two spots in the postseason. The tournament doesn’t follow the traditional series-based rounds. It’s one game per round.
Round 1
- Game 1: No. 8 seed at No. 7 seed
- Game 2: No. 10 seed at No. 9 seed
Round 2
- Game 3: Winner of Game 2 at Loser of Game 1
The winner of Game 1 moves on as the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, while the loser will have a chance at redemption. The winner of Game 2 will play the loser of Game 1.
The loser of Game 2 is immediately eliminated from contention.
The Game 3 winner will become the No. 8 seed, knocking out the loser.
