Who said chalk was a bad thing?
The Sweet 16 features every No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, and that should lead to fantastic matchups on Thursday and Friday that will decide who makes the Elite Eight.
Thursday’s action features the West and East Regions.
In the East Region in Boston, No. 1 UConn takes on No. 5 San Diego State in a rematch of last year’s national championship game, and No. 2 Iowa State faces No. 3 Illinois in a matchup of conference tournament champions.
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The West Region in Los Angeles features matchups between No. 2 Arizona and No. 6 Clemson, followed by what should be a high-scoring matchup with No. 1 North Carolina and No. 4 Alabama.
The South and Midwest regionals will be Friday In the South Region in Dallas, No. 2 Marquette faces No. 11 NC State and No. 1 Houston takes on No. 4 Duke.
In the Midwest Region in Detroit, No. 1 Purdue faces No. 5 Gonzaga, and No. 2 Tennessee takes on No. 3 Creighton.
We finished 36-12 S/U and 26-22 ATS through the first two rounds of the tournament. Here are our predictions for the Sweet 16 games. Odds according to BetMGM.com.
March Madness picks, predictions for Sweet 16
Thursday, March 28
- No. 2 Arizona (-7.5) vs. No. 6 Clemson (West)
The Wildcats rank third in the NCAA with an offense that averages 87.6 points per game. It starts with Caleb Love, who averages 18.5 ppg and 5.0 assists in two tournament games. Love is shooting 30% from 3-point range with 10 attempts per game. Clemson counters with guards Chase Hunter – who averaged 20.5 points in the first weekend – and Joseph Girard – who is 3 of 13 from 3-point range in the tournament. Can Clemson forward P.J. Hall and Arizona center Oumar Ballo stay out of foul trouble in the paint? The Tigers slowed down Baylor – but the Wildcats present more options in the half-court offense – especially if Love is on. Arizona is 11-2 S/U and 10-3 ATS against non-conference opponents this season. The Tigers are 6-3 S/U and 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Will that line drop during the week? The Wildcats win, but it won’t be comfortable knowing Clemson is the best free-throw shooting team left in the tournament (78.6%).
Pick: Arizona 78, Clemson 74
- No. 1 UConn (-10.5) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (East)
UConn steam-rolled its first two tournament opponents by an average of 28 points per game despite a lull in the second half against Northwestern. San Diego State hammered Yale 75-58 in the second round and outrebounded its two opponents 68-44. Can the Aztecs control the glass in this one with star forward Jaeden Ledee – who averaged 29 points in the first weekend? UConn’s balance lies with the tandem of Tristen Newton – who averaged 16.5 points and nine assists – and center Donovan Klingan, whose 14-point, 14-rebound, eight-block performance against the Wildcats was a reminder that there is more than one dominant 7-footer in this tournament. UConn was +7 in the rebounding battle with San Diego State in the NCAA Tournament championship last year. This one will be tighter into the second half, but UConn will pull away late with its free-throw shooting. This line has already creeped up a half-point. Get it now.
Pick: UConn 80, San Diego State 68
MORE: Coach K, Billy Donovan discuss UConn’s quest to repeat
- No. 1 North Carolina (-3.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama (West)
Alabama leads the NCAA with 91.3 points per game, but North Carolina is 20th at 81.8 points per game. A fast-paced game will not affect the Tar Heels at all – not with veteran guard RJ Davis, who averages 21 points with just three turnovers in the tournament so far. Alabama guard Mark Sears averages 28 points the last two games, and he gets to the basket and draws fouls. Those two will orchestrate an up–and-down game – and the team that wins the turnover battle is going to be in good shape. How does Alabama handle North Carolina forward Armando Bacot? Will Alabama’s Latrell Wrightsell – who left Sunday’s game against Grand Canyon with a head injury – be ready to play? This is a good spot for the over – especially if both teams are hot in the first half.
Pick: North Carolina 86, Alabama 81
MORE: UNC shows its ceiling is sky-high with rout of Michigan State
- No. 2 Iowa State (-2.5) vs. No. 3 Illinois (East)
These are two of the hottest teams in the country. Iowa State ranked second in the nation in turnover margin (6.6) this season – and they kept that number at 6.0 in the first two rounds. That will be the key for the Ilini – which average -0.5 in turnover margin in its two victories. Or will Terrence Shannon Jr – who averages 31.6 points in Illinois’ last five victories – simply score through it. The Illini were 4-3 S/U in games where they scored 75 points or less – but that does include a victory against Michigan State and a 71-64 loss to Marquette. There might be more pressure on Iowa State here given four players average double figures. Keshon Gilbert (13.7 ppg.) can score too, and freshman Milan Momcilovic (11.2) averages three 3-pointers in his last four games. The Cyclones are 3-9 all-time against Illinois. This will be a tight finish, but we like the momentum Illinois has in a slow-down game.
Pick: Illinois 76, iowa State 74
Friday, March 29
- No. 2 Marquette (-6.5) vs. No. 11 NC State (South)
With Tyler Kolek (oblique) back at point guard, the Golden Eagles averaged 84 points in the first two rounds of the tournament. Marquette ranks 19th in the country in effective field-goal percentage (.555), and Kolek’s ability to orchestrate the half-court offense will be a challenge for NC State to stop. The Wolfpack have averaged 81 points per game through a seven-game winning streak. DJ Burns (12.8 ppg.) and Oso Ighodaro (13.6 ppg.) is a fascinating matchup in the post. Burns averages 20 points and six rebounds in NC State’s last two games. The Wolfpack average seven three-pointers made through this run. They are going to need to hit 10-plus in this one to make it interesting late. This could play out similar to Marquette’s second-round matchup against Colorado, and the Golden Eagles will need to close at the free-throw line – where they have shot just 70.7% this season.
Pick: Marquette 79, NC State 70
MORE: A healthy Tyler Kolek erases Marquette’s year-old nightmare
- No. 1 Purdue (-5.5) vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (Midwest)
Purdue won the regular-season matchup 73-63 on Nov. 20, and the Boilermakers are 4-0 all time against the Bulldogs. This will be the most-entertaining game. How does Gonzaga slow down Zach Edey – who averaged 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds in the first two games? The Boilermakers also are the three-point shooting team in the country (40.9%). It’s a formula that works. Of course, the Bulldogs counter with a top-five offense that averages 85.0 points per game. Gonzaga 54% from the field and 50% from 3-point range in two tournament victories. Forwards Graham Ike (16.4 ppg.), Braden Huff (9.5 ppg.) and Ben Gregg (9.2 ppg.) will all get their turns against Edey, and Ryan Nembhard (12.4) ranks sixth in the nation with 6.9 assists per game. This is a scary matchup for both teams, and neither team shot well from 3-point range in the first meeting. Purdue was 4 of 17 (23.5%). Gonzaga was 6 of 32 (18.8%). That could be the separator in a down-to-the-wire game.
Pick: Purdue 80, Gonzaga 77
MORE: Purdue steamrolls to Sweet 16, but Zach Edey is not satisfied
- No. 1 Houston (-4.5) vs. No. 4 Duke (South)
Houston survived a wild second-round matchup against Texas A&M in a 100-95 overtime thriller where four Houston starters fouled out. That Cougars defense still allows just 57.7 points per game, and guard Jamal Shead facilitated the offense with 16 ppg. and 9.5 assists in the first weekend. Duke has the talent to pull this upset if the Cougars’ defense is off. Kyle Filipowski (16.6 ppg. 8.2 rpg.) can play outside, and guard Jared McCain hit 10 of 17 from three-point range in the first two rounds. The Blue Devils and Cougars somehow have never played against each other, which adds to the intrigue. The Blue Devils are 0-2 S/U and 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Houston is 3-3 S/U and 3-3 ATS when favored by five points or less. Those are not inspiring trends either way.
Pick: Houston 73, Duke 66
- No. 2 Tennessee (-2.5) vs. No. 3 Creighton (Midwest)
Will a third Big East team crash the Elite Eight? The Bluejays are looking for a return trip to that round, and they will shoot at a high volume from 3-point range after making 25 of 56 (44.6%) in the first two rounds. Creighton will want to push this game into the 80s with an offense that features three players who average 17 points or more. Baylor Schierman (18.3 ppg.) and Trey Alexander (17.7 ppg.) are the set-up men for 7-foot center Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.4 ppg.). Tennessee will get physical with a front line led by Jonas Aidoo (12.0 ppg.). Of course, the Vols can match that scoring with Dalton Knecht (21.1 ppg.). The Volunteers did not shoot well from 3-point range in the first weekend at 14 of 49 (28.5%). Which team has that shooting from the outside in a high-scoring game that clears the over? The Big East domination continues in a slight upset.
Pick: Creighton 83, Tennessee 82
