Baseball sure can be a tough sport to predict. After all, who would have thought the World Series would come down to the Rangers and Diamondbacks in 2023?
As fans prepare to head into the 2024 season, the sport appears to be loaded with parity. There are only a handful of teams that feel truly out of the running for the World Series before the first pitch is thrown, and even fewer that feel like they have no shot at at least earning a wild card. Maybe the winner will be another surprise team in 2024. Or perhaps Shohei Ohtani will power the Dodgers to his first World Series ring.
Sporting News is rolling out the third edition of its MLB projection model to take a look at the year ahead. The model works by using a spectrum of player projections, including Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and Fangraphs’ Depth Charts, along with data on past team performances, to analyze all 30 teams in 2024.
The model uses that data to simulate the 2024 season 20,000 times and logs each team’s record and postseason performances. The results of each simulation are used to determine most likely records, division standings, playoff performances and World Series winners. The predicted standings shown in the article are the average wins and losses from the simulations.
Sporting News has compiled the results of the model’s projections, along with explanations and analysis for each division and pennant race. We’re also comparing the model’s projections with odds from bet365 to compare the projection model to bookmakers to see where sports bettors can find favorable odds.
Here’s a look at the projections for the 2024 MLB season.
MLB predictions 2024
AL East
- Yankees (83-79)
- Orioles (83-79)
- Blue Jays (83-79)
- Rays (82-80)
- Red Sox (81-81)
The arrival of the Orioles has been long anticipated, but few likely expected it would happen in 2023. Baltimore was ahead of schedule in winning 101 games and edging out the Rays in the race for the AL East crown. But this division is stacked with the Yankees looking to return to the top and the Blue Jays hoping to win their first crown since 2015.
Check just about any projection, and the Yankees will likely be at or near the top of most. And in a tight race, New York just barely topped Baltimore and Toronto in the eyes of the model. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have a case to be the best one-two punch in any lineup, and Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe make for a standout middle-infield. Much of the Yankees’ 2024 hopes will hinge on Gerrit Cole returning before too long. New York’s pitching takes a major hit if he misses extended time, even with the outstanding bullpen. bet365 also has the Yankees as slight favorites at +155 to win the division with a win total of 91.5.
MORE: What to make of Juan Soto’s spring training
The Orioles aren’t going anywhere. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday all figure to lead this standout group of young hitters for years to come, even if Holliday has to wait until later in the year to reach the majors. The pitching staff was the biggest surprise of 2023, and it’s even better in 2024 with Corbin Burnes now becoming the ace of the team. The injury to Kyle Bradish and absence of Felix Bautista will both be impactful, but Bradish at least will return and Yennier Cano and Craig Kimbrel should anchor the back-end of the bullpen. Baltimore is projected for 90.5 wins by bet365 and has +175 odds to win the division, highlighting just how close the race will be for the AL East.
The clock is ticking a bit on the Blue Jays. Many anticipated Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would have led Toronto to multiple division titles and possibly a World Series. Instead, there have been no division titles or even playoff wins. Those two still make for an enviable pairing, particularly alongside George Springer and Daulton Varsho. Kevin Gausman is entrenched as one of the AL’s best pitchers and Jose Berrios bounced back well after an ugly 2022. Maybe this will be the year for Toronto to take its turn atop the division. bet365 has the odds of a Blue Jay AL East title at +350 with the wins at 87.5.
For just about any other team, trading away Tyler Glasnow and likely seeing the end of franchise shortstop Wander Franco’s career would be enough to lose all hope. The Rays are not any other team. They work some magic every year to piece together a quality team, and 2024 should be no different. Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale lead a well-rounded rotation and the bullpen ranks among baseball’s best. Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena are an exciting outfield duo, and the impending arrival of Junior Caminero will add another powerful bat to this lineup. bet365 has the Rays’ win total projected at 84.5 and the odds of winning the division at +700. Tampa Bay hasn’t won fewer than 86 games in a non-COVID season since 2017.
The Red Sox are not an easy team to figure out for 2024. They signed Lucas Giolito, only for him to go down with Tommy John surgery. They’ve been linked to Jordan Montgomery but have yet to sign him. Boston acquired Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom counting on them to bounce-back as post-hype candidates. Rafael Devers is a premier hitter, and Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello looked like standout hurlers in 2023. If things break right for the Red Sox, it’s possible they could sneak up and win the division. But they’ll need some help, particularly on the pitching side of things. bet365 currently lists the Red Sox at 79.5 wins with +1700 odds to win the AL East.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Yankees | 23.8% | 51% | 17.7% |
| Orioles | 21.5% | 48.2% | 15.9% |
| Blue Jays | 20.9% | 47.8% | 15.4% |
| Rays | 19.1% | 44.7% | 13.9% |
| Red Sox | 14.7% | 37.3% | 10.4% |
AL Central
- Twins (83-79)
- Guardians (81-81)
- Tigers (81-81)
- Royals (80-82)
- White Sox (75-87)
It seemed for a while the AL Central might wind up being won by a team with a losing record. The Twins pulled away in the second half to finish the year with 87 wins, but all other teams finished at least three games under .500. The model expects another close year in the AL Central, though predicts a repeat winner from Minnesota.
There aren’t many teams that can lose a pitcher like Sonny Gray and still be projected to have such an outstanding pitching staff. But that’s what the model likes with the Twins. It’s not the lineup, which has standout returners like Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien and Carlos Correa, but the rotation, in particular, which brings back Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and a healthy Chris Paddack. Scoring late in games won’t be any easier with Jhoan Duran closing games out and Griffin Jax helping set him up. Anchoring a team around pitching leaves room for volatility, but the Twins appear to be so stacked they should remain comfortable favorites. bet365 has the Twins’ win total set at 86.5 and the division odds at -120.
The Guardians have been a team that seemingly only wins game by virtue of their pitching. Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez are stars, but Cleveland’s lineup has often left too much to be desired, even with the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) and Steven Kwan enjoying breakout seasons. Last year’s Cleveland rookie class of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen keeps the future looking bright even if Shane Bieber winds up finishing the season in a different uniform. If Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter get enough playing time, Cleveland’s lineup could provide enough damage for the Guardians to win the division. But starting the season in the minors won’t help. Cleveland is tied for the second-best odds to win the division at +300 by bet365 with a win total of 78.5.
It’s not just betting markets that see the Guardians and Tigers as being eye-to-eye: the model has them nearly at the exact same percentages to reach the playoffs and win the division. The Tigers have the same odds of winning the division as Cleveland (+300) and a better win total at 80.5. Detroit is a popular breakout pick after finishing second last year with 78 wins. Tarik Skubal could wind up being a Cy Young candidate, and the core pieces of the lineup (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter) should provide the solid pitching staff with run support. The bullpen has its question marks as does the depth of the lineup, but it’s not hard to see why many expect a big year out of the Tigers.
The biggest star in the AL Central might play for the Royals. Though Ramirez might still have a solid claim to that title, Bobby Witt Jr. made a loud case with a 30-homer/49-steal campaign as a 23-year-old in his sophomore season. And after an impressive display in 2023, many see Cole Ragans as a possible Cy Young sleeper candidate in 2024. The model sees Kansas City as being not too far behind the Guardians and Tigers in the division, though bet365 still sees the Royals as a clear fourth with 74.5 projected wins and a +900 shot at winning the division.
MORE: Ragans highlights breakout fantasy players for 2024 MLB season
It was not that long ago many saw the core of the White Sox as being one capable of bringing the latest World Series title to Chicago. Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are still there, but they might be the lone bright spots left in the South Side. The rotation is rebuilding post-Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease, and the lineup after Robert and Jimenez takes a dive. Chicago is the clear fifth-place team in the AL Central for 2024, with bet365 projecting +3000 odds to be division winners and an over/under win total of 61.5.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Twins | 34.9% | 53.5% | 20.7% |
| Guardians | 20.6% | 37.7% | 11.1% |
| Tigers | 20.7% | 37.2% | 11% |
| Royals | 18% | 33.2% | 9.4% |
| White Sox | 5.8% | 12.9% | 2.3% |
AL West
- Astros (86-76)
- Mariners (82-80)
- Rangers (82-80)
- Angels (79-83)
- Athletics (71-91)
The Astros won the AL West for the third consecutive season in 2023 and for the sixth time in seven years, but it was the Rangers everyone will remember. Texas won the World Series, claiming its first ring in franchise history. But make no mistake: the model still expects Houston to be the dominant team from the Lone Star State in 2024.
Looks like when the mid-2010s Astros were made, they forgot to put in the quit. Every year, new breakout players emerge alongside the current star players, and star players seem to get even better. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are a fearsome pairing of sluggers, but Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz added to the depth of the lineup in 2023. And of course, no one is going to forget about Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. The rotation remains strong at the top with Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier, but the bullpen is the highlight of this pitching staff with Josh Hader now joining Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and Rafael Montero. It’s not surprising this team is still the overwhelming favorite to win the AL West. The Astros have +115 odds to win the division and a 92.5 over/under win total per bet365.
The way Houston has churned out hitters, the Mariners have done the same with pitching. In 2021, Logan Gilbert burst onto the scene. Then George Kirby took his turn in 2022. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo were next in 2023. Those four, along with perennial Cy Young contender Luis Castillo, make for perhaps baseball’s best rotation. The lineup has its question marks after Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh, but Seattle has the makings of a strong playoff contender in 2024. bet365 lists the Mariners’ over/under win total at 86.5 and their odds to win the division as third at +260.
It seems strange seeing the reigning champions sitting third in their own division. But that’s the case for the Rangers. The problems are all on the pitching side, where the team is looking at an extended wait from having all three of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle pitching together. There aren’t any questions about the lineup, which might only be getting better with the promotion of Wyatt Langford. He and postseason star Evan Carter could battle for AL Rookie of the Year as they slot in full-time alongside Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia. This lineup has no weak spots and should help carry the load while the pitching gets sorted out. bet365 sees the Rangers as the second-best team in the division at +180 odds and a win total of 89.5.
MORE: Where Langford, Carter rank among top 2024 fantasy baseball prospects
The rest of the division, well, let’s just say it takes a bit of a dive. The Angels might not be all that bad in 2024, but the vibes are undoubtedly going to be off after watching Ohtani leave in free agency. Still, this is a team that has Mike Trout, and young bright spots like Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto and Reid Detmers. Los Angeles has several question marks in the outfield, and the pitching, particularly the bullpen, could wind up holding this team back, as it often has in years past. The Angels have a dismal 71.5 over/under win total and just +4500 odds to win the division. It feels more likely that’s the outcome rather than a 79-win season like the model projects.
From a hill to a cliff, we arrive at last to the Athletics. On the bright side, Oakland can expect nice seasons from Zack Gelof, Esteury Ruiz and Brent Rooker. Mason Miller and J.P. Sears also have breakout potential on the pitching side. But fans aren’t likely to be getting too excited over 2024, which just moves the team one year closer to Las Vegas. bet365 has Oakland’s win total the lowest at 56.5 wins and gives them +30000 odds to win the AL West. The model might be giving Oakland 71 wins, but that is only because it is conservative in projecting extreme win/loss totals. A 71-win season in Oakland would be a major success.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Astros | 45.6% | 70.5% | 35.1% |
| Mariners | 22.1% | 47.5% | 15.3% |
| Rangers | 20.4% | 45.8% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 11% | 29.1% | 7% |
| Athletics | 0.9% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
NL East
- Braves (91-71)
- Phillies (83-79)
- Marlins (81-81)
- Mets (79-83)
- Nationals (74-88)
No team is on a better run than the Braves. Atlanta has won the NL East seven straight years, and have done so by winning triple digits in back-to-back seasons. The Phillies might be having the better postseason luck, but Atlanta continues to be the heavy favorites, and that isn’t changing in 2024.
Find a weakness on this Braves’ team. Go ahead, we’ll wait. Atlanta almost certainly has the deepest lineup in baseball headlined by reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley. If that wasn’t enough, the Braves also have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball with ace Spencer Strider leading Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale. The Braves won 104 games in 2023, and it’s possible that number gets even higher in 2024. The model is conservative in projecting win-loss totals — to any extreme — by design, but bet365 isn’t, setting their line at 101.5 with -280 odds to win the division.
The Phillies just keep finding a way to get it done in the postseason. Again, Philadelphia finished a distant second to Atlanta in the NL East. Again, Philadelphia topped their division rivals in the playoffs to advance to the NLCS. And if it weren’t for the Braves’ presence, it’s likely the Phillies would be division favorites. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm comprise one of baseball’s best infields, and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos add plenty of pop to the lineup. The pitching depth is solid as well with ace Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola headlining the rotation, and an outstanding bullpen anchoring games. As things stand, the Phillies are projected second by bet365 at +300 to win the division with 90.5 as the over/under for wins.
MORE: Phillies, Wheeler agree to three-year extension
Can pitchers on the Marlins please stop getting hurt? A rotation of Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera sounds outstanding. But Alcantara had Tommy John surgery, and Perez, Garrett and Cabrera are all dealing with various injuries at the start of the season. On the bright side, Max Meyer is back from TJ surgery and Luzardo was outstanding in 2023. If those other three arms can return to the rotation, the pitching in Miami should be scary. The bats, however, could be due for another season of struggles after a relatively quiet offseason. bet365 has the Marlins at +2500 to win the division with the win total set to 78.5.
A year ago, the Mets entered the season with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer leading a rotation with lofty expectations. By midseason, both were gone. Now, the pitching staff is full of question marks as New York counts on rebounds from Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, and for Kodai Senga to return to health before too late. The offense has a lot of potential with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Francisco Alvarez all providing plenty of thump. But the pitching just might not be enough to support the staff in this top-heavy division. bet365 has the Mets a distant third in division odds at +1000 with a win total of 82.5.
The Nationals are heading in the right direction. It might not be long until they’re making real noise in the division. Josiah Gray and Mackenzie Gore look like steady starters in the rotation, and the promotions of both Dylan Cease and James Wood could come in 2024. The current version of the Nationals looks like a mix of veterans like Nick Senzel and Lane Thomas with the hope youngsters like Luis Garcia, C.J. Abrams and Keibert Ruiz continue to take the right steps to developing into core players. It’s not surprising to see Washington as a considerable longshot to win the division in both the eyes of the model and bet 365, which has the over/under set at 66.5 Washington wins and +12500 odds to win the NL East.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Braves | 67.5% | 89% | 58.1% |
| Phillies | 16.5% | 51.6% | 12.9% |
| Marlins | 8.6% | 35% | 6.1% |
| Mets | 6% | 27.3% | 4.2% |
| Nationals | 1.4% | 8.8% | 0.9% |
NL Central
- Cubs (81-81)
- Reds (81-81)
- Cardinals (81-81)
- Brewers (80-82)
- Pirates (79-83)
The NL Central takes a lot of flack as being among the standout divisions in baseball. But it is quietly going to be the deepest in 2024. No team is really running away as the early favorite. The model’s favorite has a 24 percent chance to win the division, while the No. 5 team sits at 14.5 percent. This has all the makings of a thrilling divisional chase in 2024.
It didn’t take much for the Cubs to go from having a quiet offseason to the perfect offseason. Chicago was already a well-rounded team, led by Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki. But after signing Shota Imanaga early in the offseason, the Cubs also brought back standout Cody Bellinger on a three-year deal. Chicago looked the part of a breakout team that saw its efforts come up just short in 2023, finishing second in the NL Central, but the Cubs have the most balanced roster of veterans and young talents that make them the early favorite. bet365 still has Chicago second in the division at +210 with the win/loss total set at 83.5.
What a difference a few weeks can make. The Reds entered spring training as one of the most popular picks to win the NL Central and be a sneaky contender. Then T.J. Friedl injured his wrist, Noelvi Marte was suspended and Matt McLain might need shoulder surgery. There is still a lot to like about this Reds’ team. Elly De La Cruz is among the most exciting players in the sport and Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo both have shown ace potential. A few offseason additions should help bolster what was a shaky pitching staff in 2023. The question will be if this young core takes the next step or regresses. Cincinnati has an over/under of 82.5 wins and NL Central odds of +350, third in the division.
MORE: Elly De La Cruz sets ambitious stolen-base goal
Every year, the Cardinals have seemingly been in the playoff mix. Until last year. St. Louis faltered to a 71-91 record, the franchise’s worst mark since 1995. It won’t much to see the lineup holding up its end in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado might be aging, but they’re still star hitters. Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman enjoyed breakouts and should be steady contributors. It’s going to come down to an aging pitching staff for the Cardinals, headlined by offseason signees Gray and Kyle Gibson, to prevent St. Louis from having another down year. The model sees them as a middle-of-the-pack NL Central squad, while bet365 has St. Louis as the division favorites (+135) with a much improved win total of 85.5.
The Brewers didn’t just win the NL Central in 2023. They ran away with it, finishing nine games above the Cubs. But trading away Burnes doesn’t help the outlook for 2024, and neither does the injury to Devin Williams. However, this is still a surprising solid lineup that will only get better with a full season of Sal Frelick and the promotion of Jackson Chourio. If Christian Yelich, Willy Adames and William Contreras repeat on solid 2023 performances, this lineup might be the highlight of Milwaukee. The Brewers head into the season at +650 to win the division with an over/under win total of 77.5.
The model likes the Pirates considerably more than betting markets. Pittsburgh is fifth among NL Central teams with an over/under of 74.5 wins and only +1800 odds to win the division. But the model sees a team capable of hanging with the other four teams. Oneil Cruz looks like an MVP and Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski add some sneaky depth to this lineup. Mitch Keller showed he’s capable of taking that next step and David Bednar is among the best closers in the sport. All of this is even before Pittsburgh calls up Paul Skenes, who could be an ace the moment he makes his debut.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Cubs | 24% | 40.6% | 10.1% |
| Reds | 23.1% | 39.2% | 9.8% |
| Cardinals | 21.9% | 36.9% | 9.3% |
| Brewers | 16.6% | 30.7% | 6.4% |
| Pirates | 14.5% | 27.1% | 5.6% |
NL West
- Dodgers (89-73)
- Diamondbacks (83-79)
- Giants (82-80)
- Padres (81-81)
- Rockies (71-91)
Since 2013, the Dodgers and Giants have accounted for all the division titles. That’s an accurate, if misleading statement. Of those 12 titles, the Dodgers have 11. The Giants have one, which came in 2021. The Dodgers were a game back. Will anyone new win the division in 2024? Though the model sees this as a stout division with four playoff contenders, it has one team well above the rest.
Remember when the Dodgers appeared to be at their most vulnerable coming into the 2023 season? All Los Angeles did was win 100 games in 2023 and go supernova in the offseason, landing Ohtani, Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a team that already included Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler. The Dodgers are -550 odds to win the division with a win total over/under of 103.5. Again, bear in mind the model is conservative with its projection of wins and understand if the Dodgers don’t reach triple digits, it would be a shocking season.
MORE: Why Dodgers fired Ohtani’s interpreter
If someone said before the 2023 season began that the NL winner would come from the NL West, few would be surprised. If that person later added it was the Diamondbacks, that would add some shock value. Arizona’s young core stunned the baseball world early with Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen powering the squad past the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies in the playoffs to earn a trip to the World Series for the first time since 2001. Repeating won’t be easy, and there’s a chance this team falls back to Earth a bit, but the core provides enough reason to believe in the Dbacks’ long-term. Arizona is projected at 84.5 wins over/under from bet365 with a +800 chance of winning the division.
If the Dodgers weren’t the biggest offseason winners, the Giants just might be. They landed all three of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler to contracts, bolstering an already solid foundation that featured Logan Webb and Camilo Doval. San Francisco randomly won 107 games back in 2021 and could be a sneaky NL West contender with arguably the best pitching staff in the division. If Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski can get back to bashing, there’s enough to like to see this team as a legit contender. The Giants are tied with the Padres for third in NL West odds at +1000 and in wins at 83.5 from bet365.
What an offseason for the Padres. They watched Blake Snell walk and traded Soto to the Yankees, only to turn around and trade for Dylan Cease and sign Yuki Matsui. Any team that has a core lineup group of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-seong Kim is still going to rock, and if Jackson Merrill can have a big rookie season, there could still be a highly competitive roster in San Diego. bet365 has this squad on par with the Giants at +1000 to win the division and over/under 83.5 wins.
MORE: Grading Padres’ trade of Cease
Oh, Rockies. They play in the toughest division with a ballpark that does not cater well to pitching development and a front office that appears neither committed to rebuilding nor going all in. As a result, the Rockies are the lowest projected team in the eyes of the model and by bet365, which has the win total set at a meager 59.5 wins and the odds of winning the division at +15000.
| Team | Win division | Make playoffs | First-round bye |
| Dodgers | 55.9% | 82% | 45.2% |
| Diamondbacks | 17.1% | 47.4% | 12.5% |
| Giants | 15.5% | 44.8% | 11.2% |
| Padres | 11.1% | 36.4% | 7.7% |
| Rockies | 0.5% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
AL playoff predictions
- First-round byes: Astros, Twins
- Remaining playoff teams: Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, Mariners
No AL East team among the first-round byes? Three of them making the playoffs in total might help to explain that. The division is so loaded with top-end talent, that the model sees the teams largely beating up on each other and resulting in a slightly lower chance one of them will claim one of the top two spots in the American League.
The Astros are the favorite to win the American League pennant, but the Twins top the next tier of teams. Having that bye and home-field advantage would help the Twins, who already have a pitching staff capable of holding up with any team in baseball. From there, it’s a battle of the rest of the AL East and the Mariners and Rangers that all come in narrowly behind Minnesota.
bet365 shares the belief the Astros (+400) are the team to beat in the American League, but it diverges from there. It has the Yankees (+450) as the second-most likely team to win the pennant and the Rangers (+500) third. The Orioles sit at +550 and the Blue Jays round out the teams below +1000 in odds at +650.
| Team | Win pennant |
| Astros | 16.5% |
| Twins | 9.9% |
| Yankees | 9% |
| Orioles | 8.7% |
| Blue Jays | 8.3% |
| Mariners | 7.5% |
| Rays | 7.4% |
| Rangers | 7.1% |
| Red Sox | 5.6% |
| Guardians | 5.3% |
| Tigers | 5.1% |
| Royals | 4.6% |
| Angels | 3.7% |
| White Sox | 1.1% |
| Athletics | 0.2% |
NL playoff predictions
- First-round byes: Braves, Dodgers
- Remaining playoff teams: Cubs, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants
The Braves and Dodgers earning first-round byes. Who could have seen that coming? Probably anyone who follows baseball. If those two don’t wind up with byes, it will likely be the result of a disappointing season.
The Cubs rank sixth in National League playoff odds, per the model, but because they’re a division winner, they get that top spot. Next up, it’s a rematch of the NLCS from last year between the Phillies and Diamondbacks, as well as the Giants.
Similarly, bet365 sees this as the Dodgers (+170) and the Braves (+250) and everyone else in the race to win a pennant. The Phillies have +650 odds to win the NL, and no one else comes in below +1000. The Cardinals (+1400), Cubs (+1600), Giants (+1700) and Diamondbacks (+1800) are all next up among teams below +2000.
| Team | Win pennant |
| Braves | 27.4% |
| Dodgers | 20.8% |
| Phillies | 7.6% |
| Diamondbacks | 6.5% |
| Giants | 6% |
| Reds | 5% |
| Cubs | 4.9% |
| Cardinals | 4.6% |
| Padres | 4% |
| Marlins | 3.8% |
| Brewers | 3.2% |
| Mets | 2.7% |
| Pirates | 2.7% |
| Nationals | 0.6% |
| Rockies | 0.1% |
World Series prediction 2024
The offseason trophy might have been handed to the Dodgers, but the model projects the Commissioner’s Trophy is most likely headed to the Braves.
And it’s hard to argue with that pick. The Dodgers have the shinier pieces on their team but even their lineup lacks the depth Atlanta has. The Braves won’t give pitchers any breaks 1-9, while the bottom of Los Angeles’ order is better than most but still a slight breather.
There’s also still legitimate questions about the Dodgers’ pitching. How will Yamamoto adapt to MLB? Can Glasnow, Buehler and Clayton Kershaw stay healthy? What can we expect out of Miller in his second season?
Those questions just aren’t there with the Braves. Strider is the best pitcher in the National League and Fried is right there with him. Sale has ace potential when healthy and Morton has been as steady as it comes in terms of both health and production in recent years. Not to mention the bullpen is a standout group led by Raisel Iglesias and A.J. Minter.
After those two, the Astros lead the American League and from there, the field is relatively wide open. There are plenty of teams capable of pulling off surprise runs like the Rangers and Diamondbacks, which should make for an entertaining season.
The odds-on favorite from bet365 is the Dodgers at +375, with the Braves (+550) and Astros (+700) the only other teams below +1000 odds.
| Team | Win World Series |
| Braves | 16.5% |
| Dodgers | 12.2% |
| Astros | 8.3% |
| Twins | 4.7% |
| Yankees | 4.2% |
| Phillies | 4.1% |
| Orioles | 3.9% |
| Blue Jays | 3.9% |
| Mariners | 3.4% |
| Rays | 3.4% |
| Diamondbacks | 3.2% |
| Rangers | 3.2% |
| Giants | 3% |
| Reds | 2.5% |
| Red Sox | 2.4% |
| Cubs | 2.3% |
| Guardians | 2.2% |
| Tigers | 2.2% |
| Cardinals | 2.2% |
| Royals | 2.1% |
| Padres | 1.9% |
| Marlins | 1.8% |
| Angels | 1.6% |
| Brewers | 1.5% |
| Mets | 1.2% |
| Pirates | 1.2% |
| White Sox | 0.5% |
| Nationals | 0.2% |
| Athletics | 0.1% |
| Rockies | 0% |
