With the first weekend of March Madness 2024 in the books, we have a lot to unpack. We’ve seen some major sleepers emerge victorious over some perennial powerhouses, and some favorites reminding us that chalk is still strong at this time of year.
With the completion of every game — and every round — betting odds for the Final Four and National Championship change. That’s why bettors must remain vigilant with research and analysis of stats, trends, and individual matchups before placing futures wagers. Just like the players in the Big Dance, we can’t expect success if we mail it in rather than put in the work.
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Let’s take a look at the updated futures odds for the 2024 Final Four and NCAA National Championship, then unveil our best bets and sleepers to win each region and our favorite picks to win it all.
2024 March Madness: Final Four odds
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
| Team | Odds |
| UConn | -250 |
| Houston | -105 |
| Arizona | +120 |
| Purdue | +135 |
| North Carolina | +160 |
| Marquette | +225 |
| Tennessee | +225 |
| Duke | +375 |
| Iowa State | +375 |
| Gonzaga | +400 |
| Creighton | +450 |
| Alabama | +500 |
| Illinois | +550 |
| Clemson | +1100 |
| NC State | +1200 |
| San Diego State | +1400 |
2024 March Madness odds: Final Four best bets
UConn Huskies (-250)
Hopefully you listened to us and jumped on the Huskies at -120 when the March Madness odds opened after Selection Sunday. At -250, they’ve already started to get priced out of value as you would only profit $ 20 on a $ 50 stake.
That being said, it’s still difficult to envision any team in this tournament getting past Dan Hurley’s UConn team, which has consistently demonstrated that it’s the best in the nation. The Huskies have held five of their past six opponents to 60 points or fewer, and they’ve also scored at least 87 points in three of their past five games.
UConn has now won 29 of its past 30 nonconference games, with every margin of victory in the double-digits. Donovan Clingan, who had a 14-14 double-double and an astounding eight blocks in the Huskies’ second-round win over Northwestern, has been dominant. The senior duo of Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, the team’s leading scorers, combined for 31 points, 14 assists, seven boards, and five steals.
The team finished with 20 assists and just seven turnovers, and shot 53.7 percent from the floor despite missing 19 of its 22 three-pointers. Generational teams can withstand that kind of ice-cold outside shooting, because they make very few mistakes and never take their greatness for granted. This squad seems about as close to Bill Belichick’s “Patriot Way” as we’ve seen in the NCAA for quite some time.
“We’re bulletproof,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said after UConn advanced past the round of 32 and a reporter asked about his teams’ dominant wins. “Elite offense, elite defense…it’s tough to lose when you have that level of quality.”
DeCourcy: Coach K, Bobby Hurley, & Billy Donovan on UConn’s chances to repeat
Arizona Wildcats (+120)
We already listed the North Carolina Tar Heels as a team to shy away from when making futures bets prior to the tournament. UNC’s wins over Wagner and Michigan State haven’t changed our minds, and we don’t like Clemson to stand in Arizona’s way either.
The Wildcats are third in the nation in scoring (87.6 PPG), and they finished the season ranked top 17 in both offensive and defensive rating. The Pac-12 tournament loss to Oregon woke Tommy Lloyd’s squad up, and we don’t see the ‘Cats taking any foes lightly the rest of the way.
Tennessee Volunteers (+225)
We’ve loved Dalton Knecht and the Tennessee Volunteers as a Final Four pick all along, and our position on them remains unchanged after the first two rounds. Rick Barnes’ squad hasn’t even come close to its best basketball — they had 15 turnovers against St. Peter’s, then shot 33.8 percent from the floor and 3-of-25 from three-point land against Texas — yet here they are, still standing.
You can survive poor ball-handling and even bad shooting when you defend like Tennessee. The Vols forced Texas to commit 16 turnovers in the second round, just two days after holding St. Peter’s to an atrocious 29.1 percent shooting (and 16.7% from three). Just imagine if UT starts heating up offensively, which we expect to happen against Creighton and then versus the winner of Gonzaga/Purdue.
MORE: NBA mock draft predicts where Dalton Knecht, other March Madness stars will land
2024 March Madness: Top Final Four sleepers
Alabama Crimson Tide (+500)
The Tide benefit from being a 4-seed in a region that includes North Carolina and Arizona as the two powerhouses, and both UNC and ‘Zona have suffered big-time upsets over the past three weeks.
Mark Sears has been a force to be reckoned with, and the Tide have done well to smother opposing teams’ top offensive catalysts. That could spell trouble for the likes of Tar Heel RJ Davis and the Wildcats’ Caleb Love. Don’t count out ‘Bama just yet, but keep things modest if you’re making a futures bet.
MORE: Mark Sears’ superfan mom is taking over the NCAA tournament
Illinois Illini (+550)
We don’t like a bunch of sleepers to make the Final Four at this point (look at the odds, the value just isn’t there). That said, we’ve loved the Illini from the jump because they can shoot lights-out from three-point land and only eight teams in the nation scored more points this season than their 84.6 PPG.
If anyone can get past UConn, we think it’s Illinois (in that respect, the Illini to make the Final Four makes for a good insurance bet for UConn national champion bettors). Just don’t put a ton of money on it!
MORE: Buy tickets for the Final Four as low as $ 210!
2024 March Madness: National Championship odds
| Team | Odds |
| UConn | +200 |
| Houston | +500 |
| Purdue | +650 |
| Arizona | +800 |
| North Carolina | +1000 |
| Tennessee | +1200 |
| Marquette | +1600 |
| Iowa State | +1800 |
| Duke | +2500 |
| Gonzaga | +2500 |
| Creighton | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2800 |
| Alabama | +4000 |
| San Diego State | +6600 |
| Clemson | +8000 |
| NC State | +10000 |
2024 March Madness odds: Tournament winner best bet
UConn Huskies (+200)
As long as we can get the Huskies at plus odds, we’re going for it. They’ve been my pick all season, and they’re also the national championship pick of Sporting News’ experts Mike DeCourcy, Bill Bender, and Vinnie Iyer.
Dan Hurley’s squad has been stifling on defense and overwhelming on offense. The Huskies rarely make mistakes and play the best team basketball in the nation. They rebound with tenacity and every player seems to know their role and identity. This feels like the NCAA version of the 90s Bulls, and that’s not even hyperbole.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (UConn) | Bender (UConn) | Iyer (UConn) | Yanchulis (South Carolina women)
2024 March Madness odds: Top tournament winner value bet
Purdue Boilermakers (+650)
After my weekly Monday morning spot on “Matthew & Jimmy” on ESPN radio Lexington, I listened to Sporting News colleague Bill Bender’s weekly segment and he said “Watch Purdue go and win this thing just to spite everyone.” Hmm, I thought, why are so few of us seeing that as a distinct possibility? Zach Edey and the Boilermakers are one of the only teams in the nation that has the size and skill to compete with UConn, and it can certainly get past Gonzaga and Tennessee in the Midwest.
MORE: Painter dismisses notion that Edey’s only good because of height
Edey, widely expected to be the Naismith Player of the Year for the second season in a row, has been a wrecking ball inside. But the perimeter trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones has been quite good for Purdue as well. They provide complementary scoring that Matt Painter’s squad missed in last year’s disappointing early exit, and it’s quite possible that this team makes up for that whiff with a walk-off grand slam this time around.
