Coming into their Sweet Sixteen faceoff, 2-seed Iowa State and 3-seed Illinois both had moments of struggle in their earlier round matchups in this year’s NCAA Tournament. One of the hotter teams in the country, the Cyclones needed 13 minutes to score 10 points vs. 7th-seeded Washington State in their second-round game. Tied at halftime, Iowa State kept the Cougars at arm’s length in the second half before pulling away in the final minutes for 67-56 victory.
Illinois had a tougher time in their first-round game against 14-seed Morehead State, but completely dominated 11-seed Duquesne in the second round, dropping the Dukes 89-63. Like Iowa State, the Fighting Illini were second in their conference and spent the regular season in the shadow of an eventual tournament 1-seed (Houston and Purdue, respectively). And like the Cyclones, Illinois secured an automatic tournament bid by winning their conference tournament championship.
The Cyclones face off against the Fighting Illini Thursday at 10:09 p.m. (ET) on TBS/truTV. Here’s a guide to betting on Iowa State vs. Illinois in the Sweet 16, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the first-round game.
Iowa State vs. Illinois odds
Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for Iowa State vs. Illinois Sweet 16 game from the best online sports betting sites in the U.S.
The Cyclones and Fighting Illini are pretty evenly matched and oddsmakers have this game with the lowest point spread out of all of the Sweet Sixteen games. Iowa State is favored by 1.5 points, likely because they have more quality wins this season, including bringing down Big 12 kings Houston twice.
Check and bet: College basketball odds | March Madness betting sites | Latest sportsbook promos and bonuses | North Carolina sportsbook bonuses
Three betting trends to watch
- Both Iowa State and Illinois are 9-1 in their last 10 games and 7-3 against the spread in that span.
- Iowa State is 19-8 against the spread when they’re the betting favorite. But Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in games in which they’re underdogs.
- Illinois’ offensive prowess (their 84.6 PPG is ninth-best in the country) has helped game totals hit the OVER in 26 of their 36 games. But Iowa State’s defensive prowess (keeping opponents to 61.2 PPG, fourth-best mark in the country) have led to totals hitting the UNDER in all but two of their final 10 games.
March Madness Central: Odds, full TV schedule and betting promos for March Madness
Iowa State Cyclones key players
Guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are the Cyclones’ most impactful players, shaping the game on both offense and defense. Gilbert leads Iowa State in scoring with 13.7 PPG, to go along with 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.9 steals. Lipsey puts up similar numbers, with 12.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.9 assists.
Freshman forward Milan Momcilovic has also been productive this season, averaging 11.2 PPG, while senior forward Curtis Jones has been great off the bench, averaging 10.6 PPG. Jones scored 14 in the Cyclones’ second-round win over Washington State.
Illinois Fighting Illini key players
Terrence Shannon Jr. is the heart of Illinois’ powerhouse offense, one of the top scorers in college basketball who’s expected to be a high first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Shannon Jr. shoots 48.1% and averages 23.3 PPG (third-most in the country). The senior guard had 30 in the Fighting Illini’s second-round victory over Duquesne.
Fellow seniors Marcus Domask (16.1 PPG, 5 RPG), Coleman Hawkins (12.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Quincy Guerrier (9.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) help round out Illinois’ well-rounded and experienced offense.
Make your picks: Best March Madness upset picks | Who will win 2024 March Madness? | 2024 March Madness odds
Best individual matchup: Tamin Lipsey vs. Marcus Domask
This should be a really good matchup at the point. While Domask is a slightly better scorer, Lipsey’s defense could be key. The Iowa State point guard nabs 2.7 steals per game, the best average of any player left in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State vs. Illinois stat to know
Illinois (with a No. 10 overall KenPom ranking) ranks first in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Iowa State (No. 7 overall KenPom ranking) ranks first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
Iowa State vs. Illinois prediction
Though they haven’t faced a defense quite as good as Iowa State, Illinois had some success against the better defensive teams in the Big Ten, dominating Rutgers twice but losing games against Michigan State and Maryland. Down the stretch, the Cyclones showed their ability to contain the Big 12’s top offensive teams, limiting BYU and Baylor to just 63 and 62 points in late-season matchups. And Iowa State smothered a pretty good Houston offense in the Big 12 tournament final, keeping them to just 41 total points. It’ll be close, but the Cyclones move on to their first Elite Eight appearance since 2000.
Prediction: Iowa State 74, Illinois 71. Iowa State (-1.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (146.5).
