Duke and Houston will meet in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 March Madness tournament in Dallas on Friday (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS). It should be one of the better matchups of the third round, and we can’t wait to lock in our pick and place some bets on this South region showdown.
Duke endured some ups and downs this regular season, but it’s cooking with gas now. The Blue Devils have won five of their past six games and 10 of their past 13, and they blew the doors off James Madison 93-55 in the second round of the tournament. 7-footer Kyle Filipowski continues to draw most of the headlines, but the backcourt duo of Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor have combined for 76 points through two rounds.
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Houston, meanwhile, has put its miserable Big 12 tournament championship loss to Iowa State in the rearview mirror. After putting up just 41 points on 26.8 percent shooting in that title game, the Cougars demolished Longwood 86-46 in the first round and outlasted Texas A&M 100-95 in a thrilling overtime victory in the second round.
Can Jon Scheyer take the Blue Devils to the Elite Eight for the first time in the post-Krzyzewski era? Or, will top-seeded Houston defend the state of Texas and bounce Duke in pursuit of the Cougars’ first championship run since the Hakeem Olajuwon days? Let’s dive into Duke-Houston in the Sweet 16, and get your ready to make your pick.
Duke vs. Houston odds
Early Sweet 16 odds have Houston as a 3.5-point favorite over Duke entering Friday’s matchup, according to BetMGM.
- Odds: Houston (-3.5), O/U 134.5
- Date: Friday, March 29
- Time: 9:39 p.m. ET (after the Marquette-NC State game)
- TV: CBS/Paramount Plus (sign up for Paramount+)
- Arena: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX (buy tickets)
Duke (26-8, 15-5 in ACC)
The Blue Devils operated a highly efficient offense this season, ranking ninth in the nation in offensive rating, 12th in three-point percentage, and 24th in field-goal percentage. They also maintained a pretty consistent defense, allowing just 66.5 points per game despite not forcing many turnovers or racking up many steals or blocks.
Duke doesn’t get to the line a ton, but Scheyer’s squad also doesn’t give up a ton of free throws, either. The biggest weakness the Blue Devils has encountered has been rebounding, as their 36.6 boards per game ranks 113th in the country.
Another question mark has been interior physicality. If the long-range shots aren’t falling and the massive wingspans of Houston’s J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis come into play against Filipowski, Duke could run into some trouble.
Key players
Kyle Filipowski, C, So. (7-0, 230): 16.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg
Jared McCain, G, Sr. (6-3, 200): 14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.1 spg
Jeremy Roach, G, Sr. (6-1, 175): 14.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg
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Houston (32-4, 15-3 in Big 12)
Houston enjoyed a dominant run en route to a regular-season conference title, but the Cougars capsized in the Big 12 tournament championship against Iowa State. That bitter loss might have been a wakeup call for Kelvin Sampson’s squad, as Houston has barreled through the first two rounds of March Madness with a collective 186-141 scoring advantage.
The Cougars are the best defensive team in the nation, ranked No. 1 in both scoring defense (57.7 points allowed per game) and defensive rating (88.8). Opponents this season shot 37.8 percent from the floor and 30 percent from three-point land. Houston also racked up the seventh-most steals and ranked top-30 in blocks on the campaign.
The scoring has been a little more suspect, as Sampson’s guys have scored in the 60s or below nine different times since the calendar flipped to 2024. Senior backcourt duo LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead are Houston’s primary offensive catalysts, but Duke has plenty of size over both 6-1 guards.
Key players
LJ Cryer, G, Sr. (6-1, 185): 15.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.9 apg
Jamal Shead, G, Sr. (6-1, 190): 13.2 ppg, 6.4 apg, 3.8 rpg
Grant Nelson, G, So. (6-3, 205): 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg
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Duke vs. Houston prediction
We’re going against the grain this weekend and picking Duke, going against the 61 percent of moneyline bettors and 58 percent of ATS bettors siding with the Cougars. The Blue Devils seem to have put it all together over the past month, and they’re 21-0 on the season when opponents hit fewer than 46 percent of their shots.
Newsflash: Houston has shot 43.4 percent in 2023-24, and Kyle Filipowski’s size should be a distinct advantage against a Cougars front court that doesn’t have any 7-footers. Kelvin Sampson’s defense has been great, but we don’t think it’s great enough to slow down a team like Duke that can move the ball well and knock down a barrage of threes. Bet on Jon Scheyer to finally get over the hump and get this program back into the Elite Eight.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Duke 75, Houston 68 — The Blue Devils advance and cover the spread (+3.5 at +100!), with the score going well OVER the total (134.5).
