Though a stumble in the Big 12 Tournament championship game cost them a shot at the top overall seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Houston was still awarded a 1-seed. The Cougars will face 16th-seeded Longwood in a first-round game Friday night in Memphis. The Cougars are 24.5-point favorites.
In their first year in the Big 12, the Cougars mostly dominated the conference, winning the regular-season title with a 15-3 conference record. This is the fourth straight year Kelvin Sampson has taken Houston to the Big Dance, including a Final Four run in 2021. Also a 1-seed last year, the Cougars made it to the Sweet 16 before falling to Miami. Lancers head coach Griff Aldrich took Longwood to the school’s first NCAA Tournament in 2022, when they lost by 32 points to third-seeded Tennessee in the first round.
The Cougars take on the Lancers Friday at 9:20 p.m. (ET) on TNT. Here’s everything you need to know about betting on Houston vs. Longwood in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the first-round game.
Houston vs. Longwood odds
Here are the latest college basketball betting odds for Houston vs. Longwood from the best online sports betting sites in the US.
These odds are in line with most 1 vs. 16 NCAA Tournament matchups. The large point spread reflects the difference in the quality of competition each team faced this season, as well as the Cougars smothering defense, which has also kept the OVER/UNDER total low. Houston won 12 straight before getting blown out by Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament final 69-41 last weekend. Still, the Cougars were the best team in the best conference in college basketball this season. Longwood clinched an automatic tournament bid by winning four straight games to claim the Big South Tournament championship. But the Lancers finished fifth in the Big South standings, posting just a 6-10 regular-season conference record.
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Three betting trends to watch
- Houston posted an overall record of 30-4 and were the favorite to win in every game they played this season. The Cougars’ overall record against the spread is split down the middle (16-16-2), though it’s slightly better in nonconference games (7-5-1).
- The Cougars’ strong defense led to game totals this season only hitting the OVER in 14 of their 34 games. Totals hit the UNDER in 10 of Houston’s 13 nonconference games.
- Longwood kept games fairly close even in losses down the stretch, but Big South regular-season champs High Point beat the Lancers by 17 in early February. The Lancers’ only game vs. a Quad 1 opponent came in late December when Dayton beat Longwood 78-69.
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Houston Cougars key players
Houston’s scoring leaders are senior guards L.J. Cryer (15.3 PPG) and Jamal Shead (13.1), while sophomore guard Emanuel Sharp averages 12.2. J’Wan Roberts leads the team in rebounds with 6.8 per game, followed by 5.3 RPG from junior forward Ja’Vier Francis, who also averages 1.5 blocks per game. Keep an eye on Roberts, a big part of Houston’s defense who was already battling a knee injury when he hurt his shin in the Big 12 semifinal and missed the entire second half of the final. Houston will look to senior guard Damian Dunn to step up if Roberts is still hobbled, but if he’s further limited, that might hinder the Cougars’ chances of going deep in the tournament.
Longwood Lancers key players
Longwood is led by senior point guard Walyn Napper, who leads the Lancers in points per game (14.6), shooting percentage (45.3%), assists (4.6) and steals (1.6). Senior forward Michael Christmas leads the Lancers in rebounds with 6.2 per game, and he’s also Longwood’s best 3-point shooter, making them from deep at a 41% clip. In Longwood’s 85-59 smackdown of UNC Asheville in the Big South Tournament championship game, five Lancers scored in double digits, led by Christmas with 18 and senior center Szymon Zapala, who had 17.
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Best individual matchup: Jamal Shead vs. Walyn Napper
Both teams are driven by their top-notch point guards. Besides managing the game well and being a consistent scoring threat, Shead (recently named an AP First-Team All-American) is also great defensively, with 77 steals on the season (13th-most in the country) and an average of 2.3 per game. If he can help contain Napper, Longwood will really struggle.
Houston vs. Longwood stat to know
Houston has the No. 1 scoring defense in the country, allowing just 57 points per game. And the Cougars rank second in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston dominated some of the Big 12’s best offenses in the conference tournament, limiting TCU to 45 points and beating Texas Tech by 23.
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Houston vs. Longwood prediction
Houston’s suffocating defense is what made them one of the best teams in the country this season and it seems nearly impossible that they won’t fully snap back from their Big 12 Tournament beatdown, where the Cougars shot just 26.8%. Houston, who’ve likely had their lopsided Iowa State loss on the brain all week, will reassert their dominance and move on to Round 2.
Prediction: Houston 82, Longwood 55. Houston (-24.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (128.5).
