The 8-vs-9 matchups are typically the toughest games for fans to choose between when the NCAA bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday.
The 8-seed Mississippi State will take on the 9-seed Michigan State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 21. The Bulldogs, led by freshman Josh Hubbard, make their second straight tournament appearance and will need to knock off Hall of Famer Tom Izzo to continue their hunt.
The Spartans are a regular in March as they’ve appeared in every NCAA Tournament since 1998 besides 2020, which was canceled due to COVID-19. Izzo’s squad made its way to the Sweet Sixteen last year but hasn’t won a title since 2000.
The Bulldogs don’t have the prestigious history that their opponent has, but the program has been successful in the past five seasons. Mississippi State returns to the tournament for its second straight season and third since 2019.
Neither school is riding any serious momentum heading into the tournament, but their regular season play against top teams in the SEC and Big Ten have prepared them.
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Mississippi State vs. Michigan State odds
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State is the first game of the Round of 64 and will take place on Thursday, March 21 at 12:15 p.m. in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Spartans opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to BetMGM.
Below are details of the game, including betting odds, time, TV and venue.
- Odds: Michigan State -1.5
- Date: Thursday, March 21
- Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Arena: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Mississippi State (21-13, 8-10 SEC)
Mississippi State started the season incredibly well, winning 11 of its first 13 games. The Bulldogs took down NCAA Tournament teams Washington State and Northwestern during that stretch.
Much of the team’s success can be pinned on Cameron Matthews and Josh Hubbard. Hubbard, a freshman, is averaging a team-high 17.1 points per game, while Matthews, a senior, is leading the team with 2.9 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.7 blocks per game.
Behind the senior-freshman duo, the Bulldogs took down No. 5 Tennessee on Jan. 10, No. 8 Auburn on Jan. 27 and Tennessee again on March 15 in the SEC Tournament.
Mississippi State endured a rough four-game losing streak against three ranked opponents and another NCAA Tournament team before its run to the SEC semifinals.
- NET ranking: 31
- KenPom ranking: 30
- Quad 1 record: 4-9
- Quad 2 record: 4-3
- Quad 3 record: 7-0
- Quad 4 record: 6-1
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 60
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 20
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Key players
Josh Hubbard, G, Fr. (5-10, 185): 17.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.7 apg
Cameron Matthews, F, Sr. (6-7, 230): 9.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.0 spg
Tolu Smith, F, Sr. (6-11, 245): 15.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.3 apg
Shakeel Moore, G, Sr. (6-1, 190): 8.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.8 apg
Michigan State (19-14, 10-10 Big Ten)
There isn’t March Madness without Michigan State as the Spartans return for their 26th straight tournament appearance.
They aren’t the same powerhouse they were during the 2010s, but the Spartans have consistently posed a threat as a mid-tier seed in March. Last season, Michigan State made it to the Sweet Sixteen as a 7-seed.
While just 19-14 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten, the Spartans had notable wins over some top 10 teams in the country. They gave No. 6 Baylor its first loss of the season, defeating the Bears 88-64 in mid-December. That victory began a five-game win streak, and Michigan State went 13-4 over its next 17 games.
One of Michigan State’s best wins of the season came against Illinois, a 3-seed in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
- NET ranking: 24
- KenPom ranking: 18
- Quad 1 record: 3-9
- Quad 2 record: 6-5
- Quad 3 record: 6-0
- Quad 4 record: 4-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 57
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 8
Key players
Tyson Walker, G, Sr. (6-1, 185): 18.2 ppg, 2.9 apg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 spg
Malik Hall, F, Sr. (6-8, 220): 12.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.0 apg
A.J. Hoggard, G, Sr. (6-4, 210): 11.0 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.1 rpg, 1.5 spg
Jaden Akins, G, Jr. (6-4, 190): 10.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.2 spg
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Mississippi State vs. Michigan State prediction
The 8-vs-9 matchups are often a coin flip, and this game has the makeup to be just that.
Both programs played in highly competitive conferences, so mediocre records shouldn’t scare fans too much. The Spartans and Bulldogs have both beaten top-10 teams in the country and have tournament experience on their rosters.
That being said, the key difference in this matchup is guard experience.
Tyson Walker has been a regular starter in each of his five seasons in college, including the three he has spent at Michigan State. The fifth-year guard is coming off a Sweet Sixteen run in 2023 in which he averaged 17.0 points per game on 45.2 percent shooting from the field to go along with 3.7 assists to 1.0 turnovers.
Not to mention, this will be Tom Izzo’s 26th straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Josh Hubbard and Mississippi State can’t match that. Hubbard is 5-10 freshman going up against the eighth-best defense in the nation with a group of seniors primed for another tournament run.
Hubbard can score at high clips, but his efficiency can hold him back. He shot just 38.7 percent from the field this season, though he shot 35.8 percent on 3-pointers.
It’ll likely be a low-scoring, defensive game with Walker controlling the pace from the Spartans’ end.
History of 8 vs. 9 seeds in NCAA Tournament
The 8-vs-9 matchup doesn’t have a true underdog since it’s barely an upset when the 9-seed pulls it off.
Last year, the seeds split their games 2-2 in the Round of 64.
Michigan State enters the contest favored by -1.5, likely due to its history and experience in the tournament. Still, Mississippi State has knocked off multiple top teams throughout the season.
Below is a recent history of 9-seeds defeating 8-seeds in the Round of 64.
| Year | Result |
| 2023 | Auburn 83, Iowa 75 |
| 2023 | FAU 66, Memphis 65 |
| 2022 | Memphis 64, Boise State 53 |
| 2022 | TCU 69, Seton Hall 42 |
| 2022 | Creighton 72, San Diego State 69 |
| 2021 | Wisconsin 85, UNC 62 |
| 2019 | UCF 73, VCU 58 |
| 2019 | Baylor 78, Syracuse 69 |
| 2019 | Oklahoma 95, Ole Miss 72 |
| 2019 | Washington 78, Utah State 61 |
| 2018 | Alabama 86, Virginia Tech 83 |
| 2018 | Kansas State 69, Creighton 59 |
| 2018 | Florida State 67, Missouri 54 |
| 2017 | Michigan State 78, Miami 58 |
| 2016 | Butler 71, Texas Tech 61 |
| 2016 | Providence 70, USC 69 |
| 2016 | UConn 74, Colorado 67 |
| 2014 | Pittsburgh 77, Colorado 48 |
| 2013 | Temple 76, NC State 72 |
| 2013 | Wichita State 73, Pittsburgh 55 |
| 2012 | Saint Louis 61, Memphis 54 |
| 2011 | Illinois 73, UNLV 62 |
