The NFL franchise tag window was a quiet one in some ways in 2023. Just six players were tagged, and none ended up on a new team despite rampant trade speculation.
The names were significant, however. Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley were among those tagged, with half of the players agreeing to long-term deals. Jackson, Daron Payne and Evan Engram all signed extensions, while Barkley and Josh Jacobs agreed to revised one-year deals for 2023. Cowboys RB Tony Pollard played on the franchise tag and, like Barkley and Jacobs, is set to be a free agent this offseason.
The window should be more active this year, with numerous high-profile players set to hit free agency if not tagged. That sets the stage for what could be double-digit franchise tags by the March 5 deadline.
Who is most likely to be tagged? Here are 10 names who might not get a chance to hit free agency when the new league year begins.
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Who could be franchise tagged?
Tee Higgins, Bengals
The Bengals are one of the few serious contenders with significant salary cap space available this offseason. Could that allow them to keep Higgins for at least one more season?
Cincinnati’s window to win a Super Bowl remains open given its balanced roster, and the hope is Higgins can bounce back after a disappointing 2023.
The franchise tag might be beneficial for Higgins as well. It was thought that teams would be lining up to make Higgins their No. 1 receiver if he hit free agency, but his inconsistency this past season likely hurt his value. A strong 2024 with a healthy Joe Burrow could put him in position to cash in next offseason.
Brian Burns, Panthers
Burns’ name has surfaced in trade speculation before, but it doesn’t make sense for the Panthers to just let him walk in free agency. If Carolina wants to build a winner, then keeping Burns locked into its front seven is the sensible move.
In all likelihood, the Panthers will use their franchise tag on Burns and continue to work toward a long-term agreement. Could a down 2023 season make a new contract less likely? If Burns is still demanding a mega deal, the timing isn’t ideal: his production dipped a bit last year, down to eight sacks and 18 quarterback hits.
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Josh Allen, Jaguars
Like Burns, Allen is a defensive anchor who won’t be allowed to just walk away. The Jaguars edge rusher is coming off the best season of his career, with 17.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits as a ferocious presence on a defense that otherwise took a step back in 2023.
Working out a long-term deal is another obstacle, but the first step toward keeping Allen is using the franchise tag before the March 5 deadline. Jacksonville isn’t going to let him test the market.
Antoine Winfield Jr., Buccaneers
This is where things get interesting. The Buccaneers have a handful of key free agents on both sides of the ball, including Winfield, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield. Could Winfield be the most likely tag candidate after an All-Pro season?
The Buccaneers are more likely to use their franchise tag on Winfield than Evans or Mayfield, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
Mayfield isn’t believed to be a realistic candidate for the tag because of its estimated $ 36.3 million cost, though Tampa is expected to fight hard to retain the quarterback. Winfield’s tag would come in about $ 20 million less than that figure, and it would allow the Buccaneers to hold onto one of the NFL’s best young defensive backs for at least one more season.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Evans remains a candidate for the franchise tag, but each team only has one. If Winfield is the likely candidate for Tampa, the five-time Pro Bowl receiver seems poised to hit free agency.
Of course, a long-term agreement with Winfield before the franchise tag deadline could change the Buccaneers’ strategy. That’s what happened a year ago in New York, as the Giants were able to work out a deal with quarterback Daniel Jones and tag Saquon Barkley with little time to spare.
But there isn’t any indication that a long-term deal is likely for Winfield, Evans or anyone else before the March 5 deadline, and as long as that’s the case, Evans might be in line to hit the open market.
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Saquon Barkley, Giants
The Giants tagged Barkley a year ago, but no long-term deal was struck before the July deadline. Would it make the most sense for the Giants to go back and tag him again?
Unless Barkley’s demands have changed, a long-term contract makes even less sense for the Giants than it did in 2023. Running backs tend to have shorter careers, and Barkley now has another year of mileage under his belt. The former No. 2 pick missed three games and saw his efficiency dip a bit, albeit as part of a Giants offense that took a massive step back as a whole.
If the Giants remain committed to the running game, it might make sense to just go back and use what won’t be a very expensive franchise tag.
Christian Wilkins, Dolphins
There are a few franchise tag candidates in the AFC East, but none are more impactful than Wilkins.
The former first-round defensive tackle has been one of the Dolphins’ defensive anchors over the last three seasons, recording nine sacks and 23 quarterback hits as a consistently disruptive force in 2023. Wilkins posted a career-high 16 tackles for loss in 2022 and hasn’t missed a game since 2020. After defensive injuries doomed Miami late in 2023, keeping Wilkins around is likely a priority.
The Dolphins are facing a troubling salary cap situation, which could present an obstacle to locking up Wilkins long-term, but Miami figures to at least use the tag on the 28-year-old and buy itself more time.
L’Jarius Sneed, Chiefs
Sneed isn’t the Chiefs’ most notable pending free agent — that designation goes to Chris Jones — but he’s much more likely to receive the franchise tag.
A tag for Jones would cost the Chiefs about $ 32 million, which likely isn’t tenable for the reigning champions. Sneed’s tag will come in closer to $ 18 million, and he’s well worth keeping around after Kansas City’s secondary played a pivotal role in keeping the team afloat amid offensive struggles in the 2023 regular season.
Sneed morphed into one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks this past season, recording a career-high 14 pass deflections and allowing a passer rating of just 56.2 when targeted. Someone will give him a massive deal if the Chiefs don’t, and general manager Brett Veach will likely take his chances with Jones rather than risk Sneed hitting the open market.
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Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
If Higgins is tagged, Pittman stands to benefit the most. Will the Colts even let him hit free agency? With plenty of cap space and a desire to surround quarterback Anthony Richardson with weapons, the franchise tag is a real possibility.
Pittman posted a career-high 1,152 yards while largely catching passes from Gardner Minshew in 2023, and he made strides late in the season with three games of at least 95 yards after Thanksgiving.
The Colts haven’t used their franchise tag since 2013, but it might be too risky to let Pittman hit the open market. With the cap flexibility they have, the tag is financially doable for Indianapolis.
Jaylon Johnson, Bears
Like Sneed, Johnson is a 2020 draft pick who emerged as a top-flight cornerback in 2023. The Bears granted Johnson permission to seek a trade before the deadline. But with no deal materializing and the Utah product proving to be a leader in Chicago’s secondary, the franchise tag is now a distinct possibility.
Johnson was a Pro Bowler in 2023, recording four interceptions and 10 pass deflections while allowing a 50.9 passer rating when targeted. Knowing he’s still just 24 years old, it would be tough for the Bears to simply let Johnson walk away as a free agent if they plan on taking a step forward in 2024.
