When Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers traveled to Columbus for a Sunday game against an Ohio State squad so dire their coach was dismissed just a few days earlier, who would have thought it would be anything but a slam dunk for college basketball most outstanding player?
Sometimes, sports are weird.
Which is why we love them.
Purdue only was an 8.5-point favorite against a team that had lost 10 of its previous 14 Big Ten Conference games, which probably should have served as a hint about what was to follow. And what did was a performance in which the Boilermakers suggested the NCAA Tournament selection committee was wrong to name them the No. 1 overall seed in their Saturday bracket preview. Ohio State claimed a four-point victory.
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How much does one bad loss, though, do to damage a resume that was significantly ahead of even No. 2 overall seed Connecticut? Purdue owns victories over six of the other 15 teams that were among the committee’s top four seeds in each region. No one else has more than two. And throughout the projection, the committee demonstrated it valued those big wins more than metrics that already favored the likes of UConn and Houston even before the Boilers fell to the Buckeyes.
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I’m going to say that loss matters enough to make a change to DeCourcy’s Dozen. Purdue had been the No. 1 pick in the half-dozen previous editions of these rankings. Now, they take a small step back and allow the surging Huskies to move along through.
1. Connecticut (24-2)
KenPom rank: 2
NET rank: 4
Next up: at Creighton, Feb. 20
Overview: The Huskies still have lost only twice this season, and their home performance against Marquette in a top-of-the-Big East showdown Saturday served as a declaration not to expect many (or any) more. The Golden Eagles were one of the committee’s No. 2 seeds; UConn beat them by 28 points.
Guard Hassan Diarra reminded everyone, with a 14-point performance off the bench, that if stars like Stephon Castle and Alex Karaban don’t produce stellar days, the Huskies still can find answers on the bench.
There aren’t as many as last year, when UConn won the program’s fifth NCAA title with a rotation that went nine deep. But there are enough. This team has lost only to Kansas and Seton Hall, both true road games against NCAA Tournament contenders. There are no Buckeye blunders on the UConn resume.
2. Purdue (22-2)
KenPom rank: 3
NET rank: 2
Next up: Rutgers, Feb. 22
Overview: In 1996, the best team of college basketball’s post-UCLA era entered the SEC Tournament championship game on a 27-game winning streak. Then the Kentucky Wildcats faced Mississippi State for the trophy – and pretty much stunk. And it was just what they needed to get ready to go conquer the world with six consecutive wins that mostly were non-competitive.
Could Purdue’s loss to Ohio State have the same effect?
The Boilers were reminded they need to provide Edey with more space by creating (and making) open 3-pointers. With only guard Lance Jones connecting, they finished 3-of-9 from deep against the Buckeyes. That’s not going to win many March Madness games, even if the best big man in the college game is on Purdue’s side.
3. Houston (22-3)
KenPom rank: 1
NET rank: 1
Next up: Iowa State, Feb. 19
Overview: Houston’s decision not to pursue a series of high-end non-conference opponents isn’t likely to cost them in NCAA Tournament seeding, but whether it matters when they must beat the best teams in March, we can’t know until we get there.
Houston played no non-league opponents that made it onto the committee’s top four seed lines. Inside the Big 12, it’s only been Kansas, and the Cougars were blown out of Allen Fieldhouse in that one. It’s still not clear whether having two smallish guards (Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer) as the top scoring options is ideal for March advancement.
Houston’s toughest stretch is coming: Iowa State on Monday, followed by a Saturday trip to Baylor and, in the second weekend of March, an opportunity to avenge their embarrassment as Kansas travels to Houston.
At least it’s a step forward.
4. Arizona (20-5)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 3
Next up: Washington State, Feb. 22
Overview: Their losses to Stanford and Oregon State were so stunning, it began to feel as though the Wildcats would carry their NCAA Tournament frustrations from the past couple seasons into the NCAA Tournament. But even though they needed OT to get by Utah in a Pac-12 game in early February, they’ve managed to win six games in a row and lead their conference by a game in the loss column.
We’ll know soon whether that will hold: WSU’s visit to McKale Center looks like the game of the year in the last days of the Pac-12.
5. Kansas (18-5)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 3
Next up: at Texas Tech, Feb. 12
Overview: It would have been so easy for the Jayhawks to capitulate when facing a deep deficit on the road at Oklahoma. The comeback led by Hunter Dickinson said a lot about this team’s commitment to doing the best with what it has. (It also said a lot about the Sooners, but they’re not part of the Dozen for a reason).
6. Tennessee (17-6)
KenPom rank: 5
NET rank: 6
Next up: at Missouri, Feb. 20
Overview: Somehow Dalton Knecht and the Volunteers have entered a phase of the SEC schedule that requires little more than breaking a sweat. They’ve already taken care of Arkansas and Vandy, and Mizzou should make it three freebies. Don’t worry. They’ll be made to pay for this with a closing stretch that may be the toughest five-game stretch anyone in college hoops faces to close the regular season: Saturday’s opportunity for vengeance for the embarrassment at A&M, then Auburn, at Alabama and South Carolina and home against Kentucky. Who would volunteer for that?
7. North Carolina (20-6)
KenPom rank: 10
NET rank: 9
Next up: at Virginia, Feb. 24
Overview: How many passes do the Tar Heels get for not paying attention on the road? If we’re reading the NCAA selection committee correctly, the answer is: as many as they need. Slipping at Georgia Tech and Syracuse had little cost to Carolina in the NCAA bracket preview; the Heels were the No. 5 overall seed. Some of that is Arizona setting a similar standard with its defeats against Oregon State and Stanford, and some of that is a general lack of fierce competition among those competing for seeds below the top line.
But we’ll see soon what this team has learned from those experiences. Two of the last three visitors to UVa failed to crack 50 points.
8. Iowa State (20-5)
KenPom rank: 9
NET rank: 8
Next up: at Houston, Feb. 19
Overview: Winning streaks are rare in college basketball this season, particularly in the Big 12, but T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones have managed to win four in a row, every one of those against an NCAA Tournament contender, three of them by margins of at least 8 points. The Fertitta Center appears to be where such momentum goes to die, but what will we think if Iowa State makes it out alive?
9. Marquette (19-6)
KenPom rank: 14
NET rank: 14
Next up: DePaul, Feb. 21
Overview: If ever a team needed a trip to DePaul, Marquette is that team. UConn 81, Golden Eagles 53. It’s only one loss, if they somehow can forget.
10. Alabama (18-7)
KenPom rank: 6
NET rank: 5
Next up: Florida, Feb. 21
Overview: What Alabama has done better than most anybody in college basketball is lose to great teams: Purdue, Arizona, Tennessee, Auburn, Creighton all got the better of the Tide. What they’ve done better than most anybody is destroy good teams: Indiana State by 22, Mississippi State by 32, Texas A&M by 25, South Carolina by 27. All of the games in that second grouping were at home. This is not good news for the Gators in the short term, but what does it mean for Bama when it comes to March?
11. Duke (18-5)
KenPom rank: 11
NET rank: 17
Next up: at Miami, Feb. 21
Overview: Freshman guard Jared McCain entered Saturday’s visit to Florida State shooting 38.4 percent from 3-point range. He left shooting 41.1 percent. Such a jump does not come up often, but it’s pretty rare for anyone to score 35 on 8-of-11 from 3-point range. This still is a young team that could be a pain for NCAA Tournament opponents because of its wealth of NBA-level talent.
12. Creighton (19-7)
KenPom rank: 13
NET rank: 13
Next up: Connecticut, Feb. 20
Overview: It’s possible to make a case for any of a half-dozen teams to fill this final position, which is to say there’s really no one all that deserving of it. And if Creighton’s experience in trying to contain UConn is anything like the last several teams that have tried, the Bluejays will not be here long. But their win at Butler over the weekend was their third Quad 1 road victory. I haven’t checked, but that might be more than the total for the entire SEC.
