It wasn’t long ago that Chet Holmgren had a sizeable lead over Victor Wembanyama in the Rookie of the Year award race. Holmgren was playing for a much better team, putting up better offensive statistics, and had better odds in the gambling markets.
Those odds have completely flipped over the past few months. Wembanyama is now a massive -650 favorite at BetMGM, while Holmgren is at +500 to win.
What changed? Wembanyama has been on fire since moving to center in the Spurs’ offense, blowing away Holmgren’s statistical edge. Since that shift on Dec. 8, Wemby has averaged 21.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 3.5 blocks, and 1.0 steals in only 27.3 minutes per game.
Wembanyama is putting up historic numbers overall. His 20.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game have never been matched by another rookie in NBA history.
Holmgren has been excellent, too, and trending upward. He’s shot a blistering 46.7 percent from deep during February, averaging 16.7 points and 7.3 rebounds for the No. 2 Thunder. He’s No. 4 in the league in blocks per game.
He would be a hands-down winner in any normal year, but it’s been impossible to keep pace with Wemby. Chet will finish a distant second in the award at the end of the year.
MORE: Latest Rookie of the Year odds
Why Victor Wembanyama will win Rookie of the Year over Chet Holmgren
Holmgren is the better shooter. Wembanyama is better at everything else
Holmgren is having a historic shooting season. He’s the first rookie to ever hit at least 50 percent of his shots, 39 percent of his 3’s, and 77 percent of his free throws while attempting at least 200 3’s. He’s already one of the best-shooting big men in the game.
Wembanyama hasn’t quite had the same level of instant success with his jump shot. He didn’t hit a great percentage of his 3’s in France, and he’s at a mediocre 32.0 percent from deep this season.
Wemby’s has hit some insanely difficult attempts, though, including a one-legged 3 from 30 feet out that broke the internet.
His dunk reel has been like nothing we’ve ever seen before, catching passes from everywhere and easily dropping them into the hoop. He took one dribble from halfcourt and did a finger roll dunk against the Celtics that had the announcers in disbelief, asking each other what they just saw.
Wembanyama’s passing has also been a big surprise. After not being used much in that role overseas, he’s already one of the best-passing big men in the league.
Wembanyama is already a DPOY-level defender
Wembanyama would be in consideration for the Defensive Player of the Year award if he hadn’t gotten drafted onto a team that was the worst in league history last season. He’s leading the league in blocks as a 20-year-old. More than that, superstars are afraid of going at him.
“Intimidation is a factor, I can see it out there,” Wembanyama recently told Sportsnet’s Michael Grange.
Kyrie Irving backed up that statement after getting a rare layup past Wemby’s eight-foot wingspan. Irving had to throw it while falling at a crazy angle to get the shot barely past Wembanyama.
“In the future, I don’t know how many more I’ll get on him just because of how much ground he covers,” Irving told reporters after the game.
Holmgren is a great defender in his own right. His rim protection has been excellent, and he’s helped the Thunder improve from the No. 13 defense last year to No. 4 this season. But he’s not changing the entire tenor of the game like Wemby. It’s a matter of when, not if, the French phenom gets his first DPOY award.
Wembanyama is going to have a better career
Media who had Holmgren ahead of Wembanyama (myself included) were getting too cute at the start of the year. Yes, Holmgren was playing better than Wembanyama over the first two months of the season, but even back then, it was obvious that Wembanyama was a generational prospect while Holmgren was merely a very good one.
The crazy part is that there is a ton of low-hanging fruit for Wembanyama to get better. The Spurs have finally moved point guard Tre Jones into the starting lineup, but they still don’t have an above-average distributor to get Wemby the ball. His minutes are also intentionally low. Once the Spurs prioritize winning and play him more, he’s never going to miss an All-Star game.
Wembanyama has already shown in less than a year that he’s going to have a Hall of Fame career if he stays healthy. Holmgren could average 35 points for the rest of the season and it would still be hard to give the award to anyone else but Wemby.
Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama stats
| Holmgren | Per Game | Wembanyama |
|---|---|---|
| 16.7 | Points | 20.5 |
| 7.6 | Rebounds | 10.0 |
| 2.7 | Assists | 3.2 |
| 53.5% | Field goal % | 46.8% |
| 39.3% | 3-point % | 32.0% |
| 77.3% | Free throw % | 81.1% |
| 2.6 | Blocks | 3.2 |
| 0.7 | Steals | 1.1 |
