This Saturday, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will share with us the “trailer” for the biggest March release of all.
No matter what superhero hero movie Hollywood might bring to theaters next month, it won’t be as huge as the NCAA bracket that will be revealed on Sunday evening, March 17. And in a nice bit of symmetry, the annual preview show that gives us a glimpse of what this year’s committee thinks of this year’s tournament candidates will arrive exactly one month earlier, at 12:30 p.m. EST on CBS.
We will learn a lot.
Including the identity of the No. 1 overall seed.
Which seems like a big deal, except when it’s not.
It will be either Purdue or Connecticut at this juncture, and it could not matter less in which order they are listed. Because Purdue does not want what UConn wants, and UConn does not want what Purdue wants.
We don’t know whether a month from now those two teams still will be the leading contenders for the top overall position in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. It’s not a bad bet, though. Each has won exactly 22 of 24 games. Each has earned eight of those victories in the most difficult circumstances, what the committee knows as “Quad 1” opponents. Each leads a major conference by at least two games.
The Boilers and Huskies can share, though. Because UConn’s preferred path in pursuit of a second consecutive title travels through Brooklyn for the first and second rounds and to Boston for the East Region. Huskies fans can jam each building without ever stepping onto a plane. Purdue’s preferred path toward the Final Four in Phoenix would take them first to Indianapolis for the first and second rounds, and then to Detroit for the Midwest Region.
And the good news for both of them is the next closest challenger, Houston, would prefer to start its tournament in Memphis and then move onto Dallas for the South Region. And after that, it’s probably Arizona, which would wish to travel to Salt Lake for the first couple games, then to Los Angeles for the West Region.
It’s not often the committee gets that much clarity on the top line. And, who knows? Maybe the next month will rearrange all of that and make it an uncomfortable Selection Week for everyone. If the Boilers and Huskies continue on their course, though, they’ll remain atop DeCourcy’s Dozen and the (slightly more important) selection committee seed list.
1. Purdue (22-2)
KenPom rank: 2
NET rank: 2
Next up: Minnesota, Feb. 15
Overview: The Boilers have entered the least challenging – and therefore most daunting – portion of their schedule. With more than a two-game lead in the Big Ten race and a stretch of four consecutive games coming against teams not currently in contention for the NCAA Tournament, there is the question of how Purdue manages not to assume victory will come easily. Most dangerous could be a Feb. 22 home game against a Rutgers team that’s been transformed by the late-season addition of guard Jeremiah Williams.
2. Connecticut (22-2)
KenPom rank: 3
NET rank: 4
Next up: at DePaul, Feb. 14
Overview: There is the matter of dealing with an in-transition bunch of Blue Demons first, but Saturday comes the Huskies’ showdown in Hartford with the only team that realistically can grab a least a share of the Big East regular-season title: Marquette, Saturday at 3 p.m. It could be the game of the week – in college basketball, at least.
3. Houston (21-3)
KenPom rank: 1
NET rank: 1
Next up: Texas, Feb. 17
Overview: With BYU still sitting there as the top victim on the Cougars’ team sheet, it can be a little hard to fully believe in them. And with much of the Big 12 looking a lot like the Cougars – lovely metrics, but not a ton of achievement behind those numbers – we might have the same feelings about Houston until Kansas visits on the final weekend of the regular season.
4. Kansas (18-5)
KenPom rank: 14
NET rank: 12
Next up: at Texas Tech, Feb. 12
Overview: Just when it seemed safe to believe in the Jayhawks, they visited their in-state rival and fumbled away an overtime loss. Pro tip: When only five guys are trustworthy, it’s asking a bit much for them to go an extra five minutes.
5. Arizona (19-5)
KenPom rank: 4
NET rank: 3
Next up: Arizona State, Feb. 7
Overview: The Wildcats needed overtime to beat a Utah team that didn’t play all that well, then went to Colorado and dismantled a CU squad that desperately needed a quality win to enter contention for an NCAA bid. If you can figure out Arizona, they should be handing you a trophy on Monday, April, 8 in Glendale.
6. Tennessee (17-6)
KenPom rank: 7
NET rank: 6
Next up: at Arkansas, Feb. 15
Overview: In a college basketball season as wild and unpredictable as this, it still never seemed possible a team as tough as these Vols would get punked like they did at Texas A&M. Beaten on the road? Sure. That’s hard to completely avoid. Dominated by 16 points? Well, it happened.
7. North Carolina (19-5)
KenPom rank: 8
NET rank: 10
Next up: at Syracuse, Feb. 13
Overview: It’s been clear from the jump that Kansas has depth issues, in large part because it took two months to find even a fifth reliable player. But it’s becoming a problem for Carolina, as well, which got only 25 minutes from its reserves in a road win at Miami. Bench scoring is an overrated stat; any coach that wants to win that battle can open without the No. 1 option in the lineup. Bench minutes, though – that’s huge. If a coach is spreading just 25 minutes of rest among his five starters, that’s a problem.
8. Marquette (18-5)
KenPom rank: 10
NET rank: 11
Next up: at Butler, Feb. 13
Overview: The showdown that could determine whether the Golden Eagles remain in the race to repeat as Big East champion comes Saturday. But they need to remember that confrontation will matter a lot less if they don’t find a way to win Tuesday at Hinkle, where Butler is 10-2.
9. South Carolina (21-3)
KenPom rank: 45
NET rank: 42
Next up: at Auburn, Feb. 14
Overview: There will be no more interesting team in the committee discussions this week that will yield Saturday’s bracket preview. And that will be even more true if the Gamecocks find away to win at Auburn, as they did earlier at Tennessee. They are tied with Alabama at the top of the SEC, and the results-based metrics love them, particularly Strength of Record, where they rank No. 8. But the predictive metrics that measure power treat South Carolina like they are competing in the NEC, not the SEC.
10. Iowa State (18-5)
KenPom rank: 9
NET rank: 9
Next up: at Cincinnati, Feb. 13
Overview: Iowa State’s best wins – and there are few of them – have been recorded at home. The most impressive out-of-conference victory was against VCU, currently fourth in the Atlantic 10. But the Cyclones at their best can be mighty impressive. And everyone else that might be placed here can’t stop losing, often badly.
11. Auburn (19-5)
KenPom rank: 5
NET rank: 7
Next up: South Carolina, Feb. 14
Overview: Of the four most difficult games on Auburn’s schedule, the Tigers lost four, the most recent being a 16-point shocker at Florida. When the Tigers win, they make it hurt. When they lose, it can hurt to watch.
12. Duke (18-5)
KenPom rank: 13
NET rank: 20
Next up: Wake Forest, Feb. 12
Overview: It’s rare in this season that any team’s best wins are out-of-conference, but beating Baylor and Michigan State stacks up as more impressive than anything the Blue Devils have done in the ACC short of their home win against Clemson. What do the Devils have going for them? They don’t lose a lot. Which is rare this season for most everyone.
