The Lions blew one of the biggest leads in NFC championship game history on Sunday, squandering a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-31 loss to the 49ers.
Detroit has absorbed a lot of criticism for its performance, and most of it was directed at the team’s coach, Dan Campbell.
The reason? Campbell continued to be aggressive on fourth down throughout the contest, much like he had been during the regular season. That resulted in a couple of key failed conversions that allowed the 49ers to both mount their comeback and, later, extend their lead.
The criticism levied at Campbell has largely been fair, and while the numbers slightly favored going for it in each scenario, Detroit’s failures to convert have once again dredged up the old analytics vs. instinct battle that is still ongoing in the NFL.
That said, Campbell’s aggressiveness wasn’t what proved most costly to the Lions during their loss. A few of Detroit’s mistakes helped to swing the game in favor of the 49ers. The Lions lost a combined 12 expected points on those three plays, as detailed by Benjamin Solak of The Ringer.
DeCOURCY: Lions should be kicking themselves after Dan Campbell’s reckless decisions
Here’s a look at which plays proved most costly for the Lions in their NFC championship loss to the 49ers.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble
- Expected points lost: 5.5
The Lions committed just one official traditional turnover in their 34-31 loss to the 49ers. It proved to be their most costly play of the entire day, and the mistake belonged to rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
The play occurred with the Lions on their own 25-yard line after surrendering a touchdown to the 49ers. That cut Detroit’s lead to seven, and the Lions were trying to rebuild some momentum after San Francisco’s hot start to the second half.
Instead, Gibbs gave the ball back to the 49ers after just one play. He and Jared Goff failed to cconnect on a discombobulated handoff, during which Gibbs started running to Goff’s right rather than his left. That caused the exchange between the two to be out of rhythm, and that ultimately allowed San Francisco to strip the ball and recover it.
FUMBLE! @49ers take over. What a turn of events.
📺: #DETvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/lrOuGisEIe— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2024
The 49ers were set up at Detroit’s 24-yard line because of Gibbs’ gaffe. That gave the 49ers an excellent chance to score, which is why it was expected that the Lions lost 5.5 points as a result of the turnover.
In reality, the result ended up being worse, as Christian McCaffrey found his way into the end zone. That allowed the 49ers to erase the Lions’ lead and create a brand-new ball game just over halfway through the third quarter.
Gibbs’ mistake flew under the radar because of the flak that Campbell caught for his aggressive fourth-down play-calling, but in reality, Gibbs’ turnover was ultimately the Lions’ most costly play and will serve as a blight on an otherwise solid rookie season.
MORE: How Lions blew historic lead | Campbell explains 4th-down decisions
Brandon Aiyuk’s catch
- Expected points lost: 3.3
Gibbs’ turnover was undoubtedly bad, but so, too, was the Lions’ inability to force one with a golden opportunity a handful of plays earlier.
Cornerback Kindle Vildor had a chance to make a play on a downfield heave by Brock Purdy two plays after Detroit first turned the ball over on downs. Vildor was in coverage over the top of Brandon Aiyuk and was perfectly positioned to make an interception and give the Lions back the ball with a two-score lead.
However, Vildor let the ball slip through his hands as he fell to the ground. From there, it glanced off his facemask and hung in the air just long enough for Aiyuk to make an incredible diving catch.
AIYUK UNBELIEVABLE!
📺: #DETvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/gm8L5xwa9D— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2024
The Lions were still granted a chance to stop the 49ers, as Vildor had touched Aiyuk down just inside the five-yard line. However, Aiyuk caught a third-down touchdown to make Vildor’s drop costly.
The Lions only lost 3.3 expected points because of the play, but it turned out to be another situation during which better hands would have prevented a 49ers score.
MORE: Dan Campbell gave Lions sobering post-game message after loss to 49ers
Josh Reynolds’ fourth-down drop
- Expected points lost: 3.2
Is this play technically related to Campbell’s fourth-down decision? Yes, indeed it is. That said, while Campbell controlled the play call, he had no control over his players’ ability to execute the play once it was sent in.
The basic story of the team’s first fourth-down attempt is simple. Jared Goff was in the pocket. The Lions quarterback was then pressured by Nick Bosa, who forced Goff to step up. Then, Goff saw Josh Reynolds flash open over the middle of the field and threw the ball in his direction while being a bit off-platform.
The ball wasn’t perfect. It was slightly off to Reynolds’ right. Still, he got both hands on the throw and should have been able to reel it in.
An imperfect throw, but catchable.
Josh Reynolds can’t haul it in. 👏🏈 pic.twitter.com/ER3X1fHibN
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) January 29, 2024
Reynolds’ drop gave the ball back to the 49ers, who found themselves in the red zone two plays later thanks to Aiyuk’s heroics. That cost the Lions about 3.2 expected points, as it robbed them of at least a chance to attempt a makeable field goal or try to continue driving toward the end zone.
That’s part of the reason that Reynolds lamented the team’s “lack of execution” in the second half during a postgame news conference.
“[We] dropped balls,” he said. “We didn’t execute.”
Josh Reynolds post game reaction after the Lions 🦁 brutal loss to San Fran #AllGrit pic.twitter.com/u6NkI8pSRb
— Dan Leach (@DanLeachDTM) January 29, 2024
Perhaps a case could be made that without Campbell’s fourth-down play-calling, none of the Lions’ three most costly plays happen. At the very least, Reynolds wouldn’t have been granted a chance to drop that fourth-down pass, so that would have saved the Lions 3.2 expected points.
Even still, Gibbs’ fumble and Vildor’s drop combined to cost the Lions 8.8 expected points. That’s a painful reality for Detroit in a game that it lost by just three points.
It’s also a reminder of the importance of the turnover battle in deciding a game’s outcome. If the Lions had avoided or created just one more takeaway, they may have been positioned to hold on against the 49ers.
Instead, Detroit goes home defeated while pushing off its dream of making its first Super Bowl appearance for at least one more year.
