Texas Tech vs. Cal odds, props, predictions: Red Raiders favored in Independence Bowl despite transfer portal losses

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will seek their third consecutive bowl win this Saturday against the Cal Golden Bears in the Independence Bowl.

The Red Raiders opened as 2.5-point favorites on the top sportsbooks. The matchup is expected to be one of the best games among Saturday’s college football slate of bowl games.

The Golden Bears are 6-6 against the spread (ATS) and 3-0-0 to end the season. The Red Raiders are 5-7-0 ATS and 1-2-0 in their last three.

Let’s look at Texas Tech vs. Cal odds, props, and predictions.

Texas Tech vs. Cal odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the Texas Tech vs. Cal odds at the top-rated sportsbooks.

The Red Raiders have continued to be the favorites since the lines opened.

Texas Tech betting news: Red Raiders hit hard by transfer portal

Like many teams in college football, both teams had plenty of names enter the transfer portal. However, Texas Tech was hit the hardest, losing two of its top three receiving targets, Jerand Bradley and Myles Price.

The good news for Tech is that star running back Tahj Brooks will return for his final year of eligibility in 2024.

The last time the Red Raiders took the field, they were demolished 57-7 by the Longhorns. Starting QB Behren Morton had his worst game of the season, completing 53% of his passes and tossing three interceptions.

Fortunately for them, the Bears aren’t one of the best defenses in the country in this game. Cal has one of the absolute worst passing defenses in the country.

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Cal betting news: Bears defense must step up to win

Cal allows opponents 283 yards through the air (129th in the country) thanks to a nonexistent pass rush. The Golden Bears’ rushing defense is much better but still not good enough to slow Brooks.

The Bears are underdogs due to their complete lack of defense. They have allowed 50 or more points five times this season, and the Red Raiders have shown the ability to light up the scoreboard.

However, there is some hope for Cal as they are fifth in the country in forced turnovers per game, and Texas Tech owns one of the worst turnover margins at -0.9.

Cal is 4-1 when they force three or more turnovers this season, and Morton has thrown seven interceptions in nine starts. If the Red Raiders aggressively attack the Bears’ defense, it could result in turnovers. Cal has made teams pay for their mistakes despite other weaknesses.

If Cal doesn’t win the turnover battle, they will struggle to keep pace with the Red Raiders.

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Players opting out of Independence Bowl

Every player opting out of this game for both teams is due to entering the transfer portal.

Here’s the list of Texas Tech players who are opting out of the Independence Bowl:

WR JJ Sparkman
WR Loic Fouonji
TE Jayden York
P Brook Honore
WR Tyler King
DB Nate Floyd
OL Seth Martin
OL Monroe Mills
WR Jerand Bradley
WR Nehemiah Martinez
OL Matt Keeler
WR Myles Price
OL Landon Peterson
QB Tyler Shough
TE Jordan Green

Cal will be without these opt-outs in the Independence Bowl:

QB Sam Jackson
CB Jeremiah Earby
EDGE Kaleb Elarms-Orr
K Mateen Bhaghani
OL Everett Johnson
LB Blake Antzoulatos
OL Brayden Rohme
DB Tyson McWilliams
DB Ben Finley

Texas Tech vs. Cal player props

Look at some prop bets for Texas Tech vs. Cal at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Red Raiders vs. Golden Bears passing props

Behren Morton over yards: 227.5
Fernando Mendoza over touchdown passes: 1.5
Fernando Mendoza under passing yards: 214.5

Texas Tech vs. Cal rushing props

Tahj Brooks over rushing yards: 122.5
Tahj Brooks under rushing touchdowns: 1.5
Jaydn Ott over rushing yards: 105.5

Texas Tech vs. Cal predictions

The Golden Bears are dependent on turnovers to stay competitive with quality teams. The Red Raiders can give them the turnovers, but losing two of their top three targets makes them likely to stick to the ground game a little more to protect their young QB.

Cal’s rushing defense is far better than its passing defense, but it still doesn’t offer the resistance needed to slow Tech’s star running back. Expect Brooks to keep the chains moving enough for Tech’s offense to put the game out of reach for the Bears.

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