The Patriots have been the NFL’s best and most consistent team since Bill Belichick took over as the team’s head coach in 2000. He has won six Super Bowls and led New England to a whopping 17 division titles, including 11 straight from 2009 to 2019 and 16 of 17 beginning in 2004.
However, in recent seasons, the Patriots’ performance hasn’t been as strong. They have made the playoffs just once since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay and, for the most part, their offense has struggled.
But the team has reached new lows in 2023. The Patriots are on a pace to post one of the worst offensive seasons in more than a decade. They enter their Week 14 matchup with the Steelers at 2-10, good for the worst mark in the AFC and behind only the 1-11 Panthers in the entire NFL.
If the Patriots had an ordinary coach, then he probably would have been fired by now. However, Belichick is no ordinary coach. He is arguably the greatest in NFL history; and given that he turned the Patriots into a dynasty, parting with him won’t be an easy decision.
MORE: Tom Brady defends Bill Belichick despite Patriots’ lousy season
But will Robert Kraft and Co. be able to pull the trigger and give the Patriots a fresh start? Here’s what to know about Belichick’s job security and who might be in line to replace him if he’s fired.
Will the Patriots fire Bill Belichick?
Belichick’s future with the Patriots remains murky. At present, it seems like both sides are hoping to find a new start in 2024. That said, getting out of the 24-year marriage could prove messy.
On one hand, the Patriots haven’t been competitive this season, and that’s largely thanks to Belichick. The team’s offense seems broken beyond repair, with Mac Jones on his third offensive coordinator in as many pro seasons. They are averaging a dismal 12.3 points per game through 13 weeks, and that’s on a pace to be the fewest since the Rams averaged 12.1 points during the 2011 season.
On the other hand, Belichick’s defense has remained solid in 2023 despite losing cornerstone pieces Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez to season-ending injuries. They rank eighth in yards allowed per game and 16th in scoring defense, a mark that would certainly be better if New England’s offense didn’t consistently put the unit in bad positions.
So it’s clear that Belichick still has something to offer as a coach. He simply needs better personnel and depth on his team.
Of course, Patriots fans will point out that the lack of quality personnel is Belichick’s fault. That is true, as Belichick is in charge of the team’s roster and has retained that power for most of his reign in New England, so that performance issue falls back on Belichick as well.
So, seemingly, that would tip the scale in favor of the Patriots parting with Belichick; and NBC Sports Boston’s Tom E. Curran reports that is the direction in which the Patriots have been leaning since their loss in Germany against the Colts.
“When they came out of Germany, conversations I had that week made it very clear that a decision was made,” Curran said. “They were going to play out the string, and at the end of the year, there would be a parting of the ways for a variety of reasons.”
The second part of the equation is where it gets difficult. How do the Patriots approach his departure? Belichick has won the team six Super Bowls and led them to unparalleled success, after all. And though Belichick, 71, may be past his prime, there are still plenty of teams around the league that would like to give him a shot as their next head coach.
That leads the Patriots to an interesting quandary. Do they fire Belichick before the end of the season to put a merciful end to his tenure in New England, or do they hold onto him in the hopes of trading him for a future draft asset?
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe reports that Robert Kraft and Co. want to take the latter approach to avoid losing Belichick for nothing. That’s sensible, as it would give the team’s new brain trust another asset with which to work.
And as Jeff Howe of The Athletic reports, there is some level of interest from teams across the NFL in trading for Belichick. At least three rival executives across the NFL believe he could fetch a first-round selection on the trade market.
“He (would) likely have multiple suitors,” a team executive said.
Still, some others told Howe that they had concerns about Belichick’s ability to relate to players and his potential desire for general manager duties wherever he lands. The latter could prove to be a dealbreaker in any potential trade.
Either way, it looks like Belichick could be spending his final season with the Patriots. Maybe that will change if he agrees to overhaul the team’s front-office structure, but for now, it seems like New England is ready to bring in just its second coach of the millennium.
MORE: Patriots edge closer to No. 1 pick in 2024 NFL Draft with loss vs. Chargers
Potential Patriots coaching candidates to replace Bill Belichick
Replacing Belichick will be no easy task, however. The Patriots will be an attractive job, as they have a well-built organization and are in the running for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, so that will be enough to draw the attention of some of the top coaching candidates across the NFL.
But Belichick is arguably the greatest coach in NFL history. He set a standard of success the Patriots must routinely live up to to avoid disappointing fans and ownership alike.
That could put a lot of pressure on any first-time head coach taking that role. Even savvy veterans will be facing high expectations that could crush them.
Thus, it would make sense for the Patriots to target a coach who has experience with the organization and the talent needed to succeed Belichick. They could simply opt for the latter and hope that a paradigm shift would provide the team with the spark it needs to break out of its extended slump — though some may be averse to ditching “the Patriot Way.”
Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates the Patriots could chase if Belichick and the organization part ways.
Jerod Mayo
- Team: Patriots
- Position: Inside linebackers coach
Mayo seems to be the heir apparent to Belichick at this point. The 37-year-old joined the Patriots’ staff in 2019 and quickly established himself as a key defensive mind. He has helped keep New England’s defense strong despite the loss of numerous high-profile players, so the Patriots may be bullish on his ability to keep the strength of the team intact.
Mayo also has the advantage of having played for Belichick during his pro career, which spanned from 2008 to 2015. He won Super Bowl 49 with the Patriots and should be able to emulate some of Belichick’s best qualities while improving upon some of his weaknesses.
Across the league, Mayo’s performance has been noted. That’s part of the reason that New England’s de facto defensive coordinator has earned head coaching interviews with other teams in recent offseasons.
Even despite this, Mayo remained with the Patriots. Why?
“I love it here in Boston,” he explained before the 2023 NFL season. “I pretty much was raised here in Boston. I came here in 2008. It would take a lot for me to leave. This is where I want to be, and I feel the same way from the coaching staff and also from Mr. Kraft. I wanted to be here because I feel like we do it right here.”
With that attitude, Mayo may be up to the challenge of replacing Belichick, especially if he can fill out his coaching staff with other experienced candidates. That should make him the front-runner to take over for Belichick if the Patriots part ways with the coach.
MORE: Why Robert Kraft sees Jerod Mayo as potential Bill Belichick replacement
Mike Vrabel
- Team: Titans
- Position: Head coach
The Patriots could turn to another one of their former linebackers if they are looking for an experienced coach to take over for Belichick. Vrabel has been the Titans’ head coach since 2018 and has led the team to an impressive 52-42 record overall.
Vrabel’s success in Tennessee comes despite the team lacking elite talent on each side of the ball. In particular, quarterback has been a problem for them in recent seasons. Despite this, Vrabel’s crew was able to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the 2022 NFL postseason and while he is just 2-3 overall in postseason play, he could be better with a stronger roster.
The Patriots don’t have that on offense, but Vrabel could help their defense to develop into one of the best units in the league. And with a strong offensive coordinator and a young, talented quarterback, the sky would be the limit for the Patriots under his watch.
Of course, getting Vrabel might require making a trade with the Titans — unless Tennessee wants to move on from Vrabel after his worst season in charge of the team. But if the Patriots are willing to do that, it could be worth it given how much the Titans have overachieved under Vrabel.
Brian Flores
- Team: Vikings
- Position: Defensive coordinator
Speaking of overachieving, that’s what defenses have done under Flores throughout his career. He turned the Dolphins into an above-average defense after taking over a league-worst defense in his first year as Miami’s head coach and has recently repeated the feat in Minnesota.
Entering Week 14, the Vikings rank 13th in yards per game allowed (320.3) and eighth in points per game allowed (20.2). Comparatively, Minnesota ranked 31st and 28th in those categories under Ed Donatell last season respectively. That led them to be shredded by Daniel Jones and the Giants in the postseason.
Flores had a 24-25 record as Miami’s head coach, but that mark was impressive considering that the Dolphins were considered to be the NFL’s worst team during his first year in charge of them in 2019. Granted, Flores’ offenses had some issues with the Dolphins, but if he can hire the right coordinator, he might be able to get the Patriots back on track with his attacking style of defense.
Plus, Flores coached and scouted for the Patriots from 2004 to 2018. So, his familiarity with the organization and Belichick’s methods would help to ease the transition away from the future Hall of Famer.
Josh McDaniels
- Team: None
- Position: Former Raiders head coach
Would the Patriots consider McDaniels as their head coach after his failure with the Raiders? It’s hard to imagine that happening, but it can’t be ruled out.
McDaniels oversaw some of the most successful and explosive offenses in the NFL during his time with the Patriots. He and Tom Brady were a great tag team and the combination of the two led to Brady’s record-breaking 50-touchdown season in 2007. So, if the Patriots believe that they need a shot in the arm for their offense, they might consider McDaniels.
It seems more likely that McDaniels could return to the Patriots as an offensive coordinator under a new coach or if Belichick returns. Still, Robert Kraft may give McDaniels a shot to interview for the job considering that he was once believed to be Belichick’s successor.
At the very least, McDaniels would be available to interview quickly after any decision about Belichick is rendered since he was already fired by the Raiders.
MORE: Why the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels, explained
Zac Robinson
- Team: Rams
- Position: Passing game coordinator/QBs coach
Robinson is one of the next up-and-coming branches of Sean McVay’s coaching tree. He has been with the Rams since 2019 and has coached receivers and quarterbacks. Notably, he was the team’s assistant quarterbacks coach in 2021, the year that Los Angeles won the Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford.
For the last two seasons, Robinson has been Los Angeles’ passing game coordinator. He hasn’t found consistent success thanks to injuries to Stafford, but the Rams are throwing the ball well during their recent three-game winning streak. That may be enough to get Robinson some looks for an elevated role.
Would the Patriots go with Robinson, who has never fully assumed play-calling duties with the Rams? That remains unclear, but it’s worth noting that McVay’s coaching tree is robust and full of success. Also, Robinson was drafted by the Patriots in the seventh round of the 2010 NFL Draft, so he has at least a little organizational familiarity.
Ben Johnson
- Team: Lions
- Position: Offensive coordinator
OK, now we can move on to some of the hottest coaching candidates without ties to the Patriots organization. As it stands, Johnson might be the biggest name on the market, as the Lions’ 37-year-old offensive coordinator has Detroit on a pace to be a top-five offense for a second consecutive season.
Johnson is a creative play-caller and has worked wonders with Jared Goff since his promotion to offensive coordinator. While Johnson may not have a lengthy résumé, he has the upside that many owners are seeking in hiring young, offensive-minded coaches. That will make him a target of many teams, and the Patriots should be among them.
The Patriots could sell themselves on the idea of pairing Johnson with someone like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. That would give them an organizational reset that they desperately need. And if Johnson brings on a solid defensive coordinator, then New England’s defense shouldn’t suffer too much at the hands of the new hire.
Eric Bieniemy
- Team: Commanders
- Position: Associate head coach/offensive coordinator
Will Bieniemy finally get a chance to serve as a head coach? He has been passed over despite being a quality candidate for about five seasons. His offenses with the Chiefs ranked at least top six in both points and yards per game in each of his five seasons as offensive coordinator while the team won two Super Bowls under his watch.
Bieniemy wasn’t hired despite this, so he decided to prove himself away from Andy Reid. He has done that, as he has turned Washington’s offense into an average unit — Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards — while Patrick Mahomes is on a pace for his lowest passer rating as a starter under Matt Nagy’s watch. And the Chiefs don’t rank top six in yards or points per game this season.
So, it’s clear that Bieniemy is good at getting the most out of the offensive tools that he is given. His ability to elevate players should draw the interest of the Patriots, who could view him as the best man to bring their potential first-round quarterback up to speed in the NFL.
MORE: Commanders players have complained about Eric Bieniemy’s intensity
Frank Smith
- Team: Dolphins
- Position: Offensive coordinator
The Dolphins have had the Patriots’ number in recent seasons with Mike McDaniel at the helm, so New England could be inclined to tap into Miami’s offensive success by hiring McDaniel’s offensive coordinator.
Smith has been with the Dolphins for two seasons, and he has helped turn Tua Tagovailoa from a potential draft bust to an MVP candidate. He has led two top-five offenses during each of his seasons as an offensive coordinator and would bring a creative, explosive passing attack to New England.
In addition to McDaniel, Smith has worked under Sean Payton, Jon Gruden and John Fox during his NFL career, a group that has won three Super Bowls. That winning mettle along with his offensive success should make him a top target of the Patriots if they are looking for a truly fresh start.
Bobby Slowik
- Team: Texans
- Position: Offensive coordinator
Belichick admires Kyle Shanahan. Could the Patriots try to pluck a member of his coaching tree to replace Belichick? If so, Slowik is a name that could generate some buzz.
Slowik is just 36 and is in his first season as a play-caller with the Texans. He has helped C.J. Stroud work his way into the NFL MVP conversation during his rookie season and is a big part of the reason the Texans are 7-5 in their first season under DeMeco Ryans.
If the Texans continue to thrive — they are currently a top-10 offense — that could expedite Slowik’s rise in the coaching ranks. Either way, his ability to develop Stroud will draw attention, so the Patriots may look into Slowik if they plan on selecting a quarterback atop the 2024 NFL Draft.
