Newcastle United and AC Milan meet on the final matchday of this season’s Champions League group stage with both sides knowing that only a win will give them any chance of reaching the knockout rounds.
With Borussia Dortmund already sealing their place in the next round, these two sides begin the final matchday two points behind French champions PSG in Group F who themselves will likely need just a point in Germany to progress.
BET: Newcastle vs. Milan latest odds on DraftKings
That means that an open and exciting match full of attacking opportunity ought to unfold at St James’ Park, with both teams having little to lose. A spot in the Europa League for the next round is guaranteed for the victor, but with both sides losing at the weekend in their domestic leagues, this is a tough one to predict.
The Sporting News previews the game below with our prediction and best bets.
MORE: UEFA Champions League group stage standings, results, schedule, and fixtures for 2023/24
Newcastle vs Milan match facts
- Date: Wednesday, December 13, 2023
- Kickoff time: 8:00 p.m. local (3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 a.m. PT)
- Location: St James’ Park (Newcastle, England)
- Last meeting: Milan 0-0 Newcastle (September 19, 2023 | ChampionsLeague)
Newcastle vs Milan prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+290)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Milan
| Both teams
to score Y / N
| Over / Under
|-140 / +115
|-130 / +105
*Odds correct as on December 11.
Newcastle vs Milan best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score – YES
- Odds: -140 (DraftKings)
Although the odds aren’t the best at -140 with DraftKings, backing both sides to score in this last Champions League group stage match seems the best way to go given their defensive form of late.
Newcastle have conceded seven times in two matches in the past week, while Milan have failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight competitive outings.
That means it’s likely both sides will find a way to score here, especially as they know that only a win will do with regards to their fading hopes of reaching the Round of 16.
Newcastle vs Milan flier bet
- Pick: Match to finish as a draw and Olivier Giroud to score anytime
- Odds: +1250 (DraftKings)
With everything on the line, we’re expecting both these sides to give it their all and for the match to end in a high-scoring draw like the reverse fixture did on matchday one.
That’s potentially a dangerous outcome to pick, especially as Newcastle have won eight of their last nine competitive outings at St James’ Park. But their last two matches have shown their vulnerability at the moment. A 3-0 loss to Everton in midweek was compounded by a 4-1 hammering from Spurs on Sunday as Eddie Howe’s side continue to look tired in the face of their mounting injury list and hectic schedule.
Equally, Milan have looked a little weak of late, losing two of their past three outings and conceding exactly three times in both. That said, the visitors have plenty of options across their squad and should arrive on Tyneside with confidence after holding Newcastle at the San Siro in September.
To make this selection stand out from an odds perspective, we’re then going to add Olivier Giroud to score anytime as well for Milan. That makes this selection +1250 with DraftKings and, given his record of scoring nine times across 15 prior competitive head-to-head matches against Newcastle, he seems well placed to continue that trend here.