The Boilermakers have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country through their first nine contests. Kenpom ranks their adjusted strength of schedule at ninth in all of college basketball. It is not getting any easier as the Boilermakers play Alabama on Saturday in Toronto for the Hall of Fame Series showcase.
Purdue’s 7-0 start was incredible, beating top teams including Xavier (83-71), Gonzaga (73-63), Tennessee (71-67) and Marquette (78-75). Their loss to Northwestern (88-92) in their Big Ten opener was surprising. The Boilermakers bounced back immediately with an impressive 87-68 win over Iowa, covering a 13.5 spread.
On the other side of this matchup, Alabama has not had nearly the start they hoped for. While 6-2 is not a bad record, the Crimson Tide have been favored in every one of their contests. Their loss to Ohio State (81-92) was as 6.5-point favorites and their loss to Clemson (77-85) was as 8-point favorites.
The problem for Alabama has been their defense. The Crimson Tide had hit the OVER total points in six of their eight games. They play to beat teams in shootouts, and if their offense goes cold, even just for a stretch during a game, it can lead to upsets. If they try to beat Purdue in a shootout, that would not be smart. The Boilermakers have the leading scorer in college basketball and seven players in their rotation shooting above 36.2% from three, with two over 52%.
Check out the live odds, team betting news, team betting futures and a prediction for Saturday’s Hall of Fame Series game in Toronto between Alabama and Purdue.
Live odds for Alabama vs. Purdue
As of this writing, the best sportsbook apps in the U.S. had not listed odds for the spread, moneyline and total points for Alabama vs. Purdue. This article will be updated once they do.
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Alabama Crimson Tide betting news
Alabama boasts one of the best offenses in all of college basketball. The Crimson Tide rank second on Kenpom for adjusted offensive efficiency. They average 94.1 points per game as a team and have scored 98 plus points five times this season.
Three players average 14 or more points, and the next four leading scorers average at least six points per game. Alabama can flat-out score the basketball. Mark Sears leads the team with 19.8 points per night, shooting 57.1% from the field and 51.5% from three. The senior guard also leads the team in assists with 4.3 per game.
Aaron Estrada and Grant Nelson are not far behind, averaging 16.4 points and 14 points per game, respectively. We already mentioned that the problem for Alabama is not scoring. It is that they play virtually no defense. They rank 70th on Kenpom for adjusted defensive efficiency, a stat boosted by some of the very weak early-season opponents the Crimson Tide have played.
When Alabama has played against other major programs, they have allowed a lot of points. In the three games against major opponents, the Crimson Tide allowed Ohio State to score 92 points, Oregon 91 points and Clemson 85 points. Two of those three games resulted in upset losses.
Purdue scores it better than any team Alabama has faced this season. The Crimson Tide will have to have a defensive performance we have not seen from them all season if they don’t want the Boilermakers to put up 100-plus points on them in a blowout loss.
Alabama Crimson Tide futures odds
- Win National Championship:
- Make the Final Four:
- Win the SEC:
Purdue Boilermakers betting news
The Boilermakers’ season got off to a dream start with big wins followed by more big wins. Purdue’s first-round loss as the second No. 1 seed of all time to lose to a 16 seed in last season’s NCAA Tournament was a huge embarrassment. The Boilermakers put together one of college basketball’s most demanding non-conference schedules and have blown through it so far.
The Boilermakers’ only loss was in their Big Ten opener to Northwestern, but they quickly bounced back, dominating Iowa. Purdue can attribute much of their early season success to star center and reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey. The senior big man had one of the best seasons in college basketball history statistically last season. He has put up even better numbers this year, and remember that it has been mostly against really strong competition.
Where Purdue has improved is getting Edey more help, as three other players are scoring in double figures. Braden Smith (11.7 PPG), Lance Jones (11 PPG) and Fletcher Loyer (10.9 PPG) are all strong three-point shooters. As much as teams want to double down on Edey, he has a lot of great shooters to get it to on the perimeter.
The one weakness for Purdue is their turnovers, which can sometimes leave the Boilermakers susceptible to teams with athletic backcourts. They had 17 turnovers in their loss to Northwestern. While Alabama is terrible defensively, they have a very athletic group of guards that, especially in this matchup, will likely try to pressure Purdue’s guard a lot.
If the Boilermakers don’t have a 20-plus turnover game, they should score at will against the Crimson Tide. Don’t be shocked if Edey goes for a season-high and the trio of Smith, Jones and Loyer combine for 10-plus threes.
Purdue Boilermakers futures odds
- Win National Championship:
- Make the Final Four:
- Win the Big Ten:
Alabama vs. Purdue prediction: Boilermakers drop 100 plus on Alabama and run away with it late
We talked about how Alabama would need a defensive performance in this game that we have not seen they are capable of yet this season to upset the Boilermakers. Unless Purdue has a ton of turnovers, they will score anytime they want to against the Crimson Tide. That should allow them to not only beat Alabama but do so comfortably.
Pick: Purdue to cover the spread
