Would the NCAA tournament committee accept Gonzaga and Florida Atlantic as at-large entrants?
That is a trend to watch over the next few weeks.
Gonzaga is behind Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference, and a 1-5 record in Quad 1 is cause for concern. Yet Mark Few has the Bulldogs playing well – and a showdown with league front-runner Saint Mary’s on March 2 is coming. The Bulldogs haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 1998.
FAU – a Final Four team last year – is dealing with South Florida in the American Athletic Conference. The Bulls beat the Owls 90-86 on Sunday, and FAU has a 2-1 record in Quad 1. Dusty May has a team that should snag an at-large bid, but you never know.
If Gonzaga and FAU are in, then who is out? With that in mind, here is a look at the second Field of 68. We will unveil a new projected tournament field each week ahead of Selection Sunday on March 17.
This year’s Final Four is April 6-8 at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix.
UConn, Houston, Purdue and Arizona are our No. 1 seeds.
We also will break down the tournament bubble each week. Right now our last four in are Cincinnati, Butler, Northwestern and Nevada. That is bound to change with each week.
Who is our Field of 68? Here is a closer look:
MORE: DeCourcy’s Dozen has UConn on top
* – Projected automatic bid
NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections
No. 1 Seeds
*UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East)
Resume: Net: 4, KenPom: 3. Purdue’s loss to Ohio State likely drives the defending national champion up to the No. 1 overall seed under coach Danny Hurley. Cam Spencer (15.2 ppg.) leads a group that has five players scoring in double figures.
*Houston (21-3, 8-3 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 1, KenPom: 1. The Cougars are 8-3 in Quad 1 and have their case for their own No. 1 overall seed – one they can validate in a top-10 showdown against Iowa State on Monday.
*Purdue (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 2, KenPom: 3. The Boilermakers were the No. 1 seed in the first NCAA Bracket Preview Show, then the Boilermakers promptly lost 73-69 at Ohio State. Purdue faces three unranked teams before closing the season with Illinois and Wisconsin.
MORE: What committee’s ‘sneak peek’ foreshadows for field of 68
*Arizona (20-5, 11-3 Pac-12)
Resume: Net: 3, KenPom: 4. North Carolina transfer Caleb Love averages 18.8 points per game, and the Wildcats are on a six-game winning streak. Arizona has a fun home matchup against surprising Washington State on Thursday.
No. 2 Seeds
*North Carolina (20-6, 12-3 ACC)
Resume: Net: 9, KenPom: 10. The Tar Heels are 6-4 in Quad 1, and none of the No. 1 seeds have more than three Quad 1 losses. They do have the ACC’s leading scorer in RJ Davis (21.3 ppg.) and rebounder in Armando Bacot (10.3 rpg.). That tandem can lead a national championship run.
*Tennessee (19-6, 9-3 SEC)
Resume: Net: 6, KenPom: 5. The Vols remain the highest-seed in a tight SEC race, and back-to-back showdowns against Auburn (Feb. 28) and Alabama (March 2) will determine whether Tennessee stays here.
Marquette (18-5, 9-3 Big East)
Resume: Net: 14, KenPom: 14. An 81-53 loss to UConn offers some perspective for Shaka Smart’s team, and their Net/KenPom combination is light for a No. 2 seed. Marquette is 5-4 in Quad 1.
Kansas (20-6, 8-5 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 16, KenPom: 17. There are other Big 12 teams in the hunt for a No. 2 seed, but the Jayhawks are a steady choice. Kansas stays home this week with matchups against Texas and BYU.
No. 3 Seeds
Iowa State (20-5, 9-3 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 8, KenPom: 9. Iowa State has a resume fit for a No. 2 seed, and a 6-4 record against Quad 1 teams is proof. T.J. Otzelberger might have his best team yet, and they can showcase that against the Cougars on Monday.
Alabama (18-7, 10-2 SEC)
Resume: Net: 5, KenPom: 6. The Crimson Tide remain in the hunt with the top-tier SEC teams, and Mark Sears (20.3 ppg.) leads the conference in scoring. A 2-6 record against Quad 1 teams needs to improve.
Baylor (19-6, 8-4 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 11, KenPom: 12. The Bears are flying under the radar a bit, but they still average 83 points per game with six double-figure scorers. Freshman Ja’Kobe Walker (14.5 ppg.) continues to lead the way.
Duke (20-5, 11-3 ACC)
Resume: Net: 17, KenPom: 11. The Blue Devils have won four on a row and continue a three-game road trip at Miami and Wake Forest this week. Barring an upset, they will stay here for at least another week.
No. 4 seeds
Auburn (20-6, 9-4 SEC)
Resume: Net: 7, KenPom: 7. The Tigers dropped to 2-5 against Quad 1 after a 70-59 loss to Kentucky. Is Bruce Pearl’s team getting enough respect? A matchup at Tennessee on Feb. 28 will be an indicator.
Illinois (19-6, 10-4 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 14, KenPom: 11. The Illini have three more games against unranked teams on the schedule, and senior guard Terrence Shannon averages 28.7 ppg in their last three games.
San Diego State (20-6, 9-4 MWC)
Resume: Net: 18, KenPom: 18. The Aztecs are 5-6 in Quad 1 and have the best resume among a loaded crop of Mountain West Conference teams. Brian Dutcher has this team in position for what could be another deep tournament run.
Creighton (19-7, 10-5 Big East)
Resume: Net: 13, KenPom: 13. Creighton — now 5-4 in Quad 1 – could bump up a line or two if this keeps up. The Blue Jays have three players that average 17.0 points per game or more, led by Baylor Scheierman (18.7 ppg.).
No. 5 seeds
Wisconsin (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 21, KenPom: 19.The Badgers have lost five of six, and they need to get back on track this week against Indiana and Maryland.
*Dayton (21-4, 11-2 Atlantic-10)
Resume: Net: 19, KenPom: 24. The Flyers are the best team in the Atlantic-10, and bubble teams are hoping it stays that way.
BYU (18-7, 6-6 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 10, KenPom: 16. A 93-83 loss to Oklahoma State was a setback, but the Cougars are still 12-0 in Quads 3-4.
Kentucky (18-7, 8-4 SEC)
Resume: Net: 22, KenPom: 21. The Wildcats are 3-6 in Quad 1, but John Calipari got our attention with victories against LSU and Auburn last week. The ranking combination is solid, too.
No. 6 seeds
Texas Tech (18-7, 7-5 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 26, KenPom: 23. The Red Raiders split matchups against Kansas and Iowa State last week. Sophomore Pop Isaacs leads the Red Raiders with 16.1 ppg.
Michigan State (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 20, KenPom: 15. The Spartans have won three straight games and have home matchups against Iowa and Ohio State. Tom Izzo has Michigan State trending upward.
Clemson (17-8, 7-7 ACC)
Resume: Net: 27, KenPom: 33. The Tigers continue to be up-and-down, and we’re not sure how much the committee will respect that .500 record in conference play.
Utah State (21-5, 9-4 MWC)
Resume: Net: 30, KenPom: 41. Is this too low for the Aggies? Utah State has lost three of its last five heading into Tuesday’s game against San Diego State.
No. 7 seeds
Washington State (20-6, 11-4 Pac-12)
Resume: Net: 31, KenPom: 33. The Cougars continue to trend up with a strong record in the Pac-12 under fifth-year coach Kyle Smith. Washington State takes a seven-game win streak into Saturday’s game against Arizona.
South Carolina (21-5, 9-4 SEC)
Resume: Net: 47, KenPom: 54. Lamont Paris has done an excellent job, but back-to-back losses to Auburn and LSU show there is work ahead of matchups against a pair of bubble teams in Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Oklahoma (18-8, 6-7 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 30, KenPom: 24. The Sooners took losses to Baylor and Kansas last week, and they face Oklahoma State on Saturday. Next week is brutal, too, with matchups against Iowa State and Houston.
*Saint Mary’s (21-6, 12-0 West Coast)
Resume: Net: 15, KenPom: 22. The Gaels still have not lost in West Coast Conference play, and it will be interesting to see how the committee feels about that success.
No. 8 seeds
Florida (18-7, 8-4 SEC)
Resume: Net: 28, KenPom: 27. The Gators are 15-0 outside Quad 1, a stat that could bump them out of the 8/9 range in the next few weeks.
Colorado State (20-6, 8-5 MWC)
Resume: Net: 25, KenPom: 28. The Rams beat Utah State 75-55, and now they must keep that momentum in the right direction in road trips at New Mexico and UNLV.
TCU (18-7, 7-5 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 36, KenPom: 32. The Horned Frogs remain 3-6 in Quad 1 and have a resume that could sneak them up another line.
Colorado (17-9, 8-7 Pac-12)
Resume: Net: 42, KenPom: 38. The Buffaloes are the third Pac-12, but Utah and Oregon also are on the bubble. We’ll keep the team with the highest ranked combination.
Rest of the field …
No. 9 seeds
Texas (16-9, 5-7 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 33, KenPom: 29.
New Mexico (20-6, 8-5 MWC)
Resume: Net: 24, KenPom: 25.
Virginia (20-6, 11-4 ACC)
Resume: Net: 41, KenPom: 53.
FAU (19-5, 9-2 AAC)
Resume: Net: 29, KenPom: 34.
No. 10 seeds
Nebraska (18-8, 8-7 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 49, KenPom: 40.
Mississippi State (17-8, 6-6 SEC)
Resume: Net: 38, KenPom: 35.
Boise State (17-8, 8-4 MWC)
Resume: Net: 43, KenPom: 50.
Gonzaga (20-8, 10-2 West Coast)
Resume: Net: 23, KenPom: 20.
No. 11 seeds
Ole Miss (19-6, 6-6 SEC)
Resume: Net: 65, KenPom: 68.
*Indiana State (22-5, 13-3 MVC)
Resume: Net: 32, KenPom: 49.
**Cincinnati (16-9, 5-7 Big 12)
Resume: Net: 37, KenPom: 36.
**Northwestern (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten)
Resume: Net: 56, KenPom: 47.
**Butler (16-10, 7-8 Big East)
Resume: Net: 57, KenPom 55.
**Nevada (20-6, 7-5 MWC)
Resume: Net: 44, KenPom 45.
No. 12 seeds
*Grand Canyon (24-2, 14-1 WAC)
Resume: Net: 48, KenPom: 58.
*McNeese (23-3, 12-1 Southland)
Resume: Net: 52, KenPom: 63.
*Samford (23-4, 12-2 Southern)
Resume: Net: 66, KenPom: 71.
*South Florida (19-5, 12-1 AAC)
Resume: Net: 92, KenPom 100.
No. 13 seeds
*UC-Irvine (19-7, 12-2 Big West)
Resume: Net: 80, KenPom: 77.
*Louisiana Tech (18-8, 8-3 C-USA)
Resume: Net: 85, KenPom: 80.
*Appalachian State (22-5, 12-2 Sun Belt)
Resume: Net: 76, KenPom: 85.
*Yale (17-7, 8-1 Ivy)
Resume: Net: 82, KenPom: 87.
No. 14 seeds
*Akron (19-6, 11-1 MAC)
Resume: Net: 93, KenPom: 97.
*UNC-Wilmington (19-7, 10-4 CAA)
Resume: Net: 107, KenPom: 105.
*Vermont (21-6, 11-1 America East)
Resume: Net: 104, KenPom: 109.
*High Point (22-6, 11-2 Big South)
Resume: Net: 111, KenPom: 117.
No. 15 seeds
*Morehead State (20-7, 11-3 OVC)
Resume: Net: 115, KenPom: 118.
*Oakland (18-10, 13-4 Horizon)
Resume: Net: 124, KenPom: 128.
*Eastern Washington (17-9, 11-1 Big Sky)
Resume: Net: 122, KenPom: 132.
*Colgate (19-8, 13-1 Patriot)
Resume: Net: 127, KenPom: 140.
No. 16 seeds
*Quinnipiac (19-6, 11-3 MAAC)
Resume: Net: 163, KenPom 200.
**Eastern Kentucky (15-11, 11-2 A-Sun)
Resume: Net: 199, KenPom: 179.
**Southern (16-9, 10-2 SWAC)
Resume: Net: 196, KenPom: 210.
**Merrimack (17-10, 11-4 Northeast)
Resume: Net: 202, KenPom: 204.
**North Dakota (17-11, 9-4 Summit)
Resume: Net: 237, KenPom: 235.
**Norfolk State (16-9, 6-2 MEAC)
Resume: Net: 224, KenPom: 248.
Bubble Watch
Texas A&M (15-10, 6-6 SEC)
Resume: Net: 45, KenPom: 43. The Aggies had a rough week that included a loss to Vanderbilt. They have a chance to regain the committee’s trust at Tennessee on Saturday.
Seton Hall (17-9, 10-5 Big East)
Resume: Net: 63, KenPom: 59. A huge bubble game with Butler awaits this week, and the Pirates have road trips to Creighton (Feb. 28) and UConn (March 3) on the schedule.
Utah (16-10, 7-8 Pac-12)
Resume: Net: 50, KenPom: 46. The Utes are sliding down the Pac-12 standings with five losses in their last seven games, and a bubble-watch game against Colorado on Saturday will be huge.
Pitt (17-8, 8-6 ACC)
Resume: Net: 47, KenPom: 51. The Panthers have won five in a row and don’t have a ranked team left on the schedule. Pitt is 3-4 in Quad 1.
