After falling two wins shy of a title, the New York Liberty have been on a mission to avenge their loss in the 2023 WNBA Finals.
With last year as their motivation, the Liberty posted a league-best 32-8 record in the 2024 regular season, swept the first round of the playoffs and punched their ticket for a return trip to the Finals by eliminating the defending champion Las Vegas Aces in four games in the semifinals.
As evidenced by their overall 37-9 record, the Liberty have been the best team in the WNBA throughout the 2024 season. Now, New York is three wins away from the first title in franchise history with the series opening on its home floor at the Barclays Center.
On the other side stands the Minnesota Lynx, the league’s second-best team this season. The No. 2 seed in this year’s playoffs, Minnesota swept Phoenix in the opening round and outlasted Connecticut in a decisive Game 5 in the semifinals.
While they haven’t been in existence quite as long as the Liberty, the Lynx have one of the richest histories in the WNBA, winning four titles in six Finals appearances made between 2011 and 2017. Seven years after winning its last championship, Minnesota is on the cusp of breaking a three-way tie to become the league’s most decorated franchise with five titles.
As the 2024 season has essentially been a crash course for these two teams to meet with a title on the line, this series should not disappoint. With plenty of star power and storylines to follow, this series could go the distance.
Here’s what to expect in the 2024 WNBA Finals.
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Liberty vs. Lynx prediction
This is going to be a battle between two teams that are extremely familiar with one another. In addition to a regular-season series that included four meetings, Lynx superstar Napheesa Collier and Liberty superstar Breanna Stewart spent one season as teammates at UConn, winning a national championship in 2016, and have since won two Olympic gold medals together.
Now, the MVP runner-up and last year’s MVP will go head-to-head with a title on the line, and the conversation begins with them.
During these playoffs, Stewart is averaging 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. She is extra motivated after admitting she dealt with off-the-court adversity last postseason. A career 35.7 percent 3-point shooter, Stewart’s shooting will be something to keep an eye on in the series, as she’s shot below 30 percent from deep in the regular season and through six playoff games.
Collier opened the preseason on a historic tear, scoring 80 points in Minnesota’s two-game sweep in the opening round. In the semifinals, Collier needed time to figure out the Sun’s defense, scoring a total of 28 points in Games 1 and 2 before closing out the series with games of 26, 29 and 27 points.
The Minnesota Lynx trio put on a clinic in Game 5 to advance to the #WNBAFinals presented by @YouTubeTV 🔥
Collier: 27 PTS, 11 REB, 4 AST, 4 BLK
Williams: 24 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST, 2 STL
McBride: 19 PTS, 4 AST, 3 3PM#WelcometotheW pic.twitter.com/7VwNKQytcu— WNBA (@WNBA) October 9, 2024
As teams often go as their superstars do, that battle will set the tone, but the stylistic battle will be just as key. Both the Lynx and Liberty have strong defensive identities but during the regular season, it was Minnesota that was able to stifle New York, which only cracked 80 points in one of the team’s four meetings.
During these playoffs, the Liberty’s connectivity has been off the charts. The insertion of Leonie Fiebich into the starting lineup has paid dividends, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton has been a do-it-all utility player, and the star duo of Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones have let their star power shine.
Minnesota’s gotten contributions from across the board this postseason but none have been bigger than those from the trio of Bridget Carleton, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams. This series ultimately comes down to which team can make good on its defensive identity and which stars can find ways to overcome stingy schemes.
Throwing the regular season series out the window, the Liberty’s connectedness and rest advantage give them the edge in this series. They match up well.
Prediction: Liberty in four
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Liberty vs. Lynx betting odds
The Liberty (-275) open as favorites over the Lynx (+220), per NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM.
- Liberty 3-0: +290
- Liberty 3-1: +310
- Liberty 3-2: +300
- Lynx 3-0: +1300
- Lynx 3-1: +600
- Lynx 3-2: +600
Liberty vs. Lynx regular season series
The Lynx got the best of the Liberty during the regular season, winning the season series, 3-1. Minnesota also defeated New York in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, a game that does not count toward either team’s regular-season record.
- May 25, 2024: Lynx 84, Liberty 67
- June 25, 2024: Lynx 94, Liberty 89 (Commissioner’s Cup Championship)
- July 2, 2024: Liberty 76, Lynx 67
- Sept. 15, 2024: Lynx 88, Liberty 79
New York’s lone win over Minnesota was a slugfest that saw the teams shoot a combined 38.0 percent from the field. That game came exactly one week after the Lynx won a high-stakes battle for the Commissioner’s Cup.
While the other three meetings happened well before the Olympic break, the team’s final meeting came less than a month before Game 1 of the Finals.
In that game, Stewart exploded for 38 points and 18 rebounds but Ionescu was the only other Liberty player to finish in double figures, managing 13 points on 4-of-21 shooting. On the other side, five members of the Lynx finished in double figures and the team shot 53.0 percent from the field.
Liberty vs. Lynx key storyline: Sabrina Ionescu vs. Minnesota defense
Make no mistake, Ionescu is one of the league’s top talents. After posting averages of 18.2 points, 6.2 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game during the regular season, she’s averaging 20.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game in the playoffs, numbers that would be even flashier if it weren’t for an off night in Game 3 of the semifinals.
As impressive as Ionescu has been this season, some of her greatest struggles came against Minnesota. Just take a look at the game log:
- May 25, 2024: 13 PTS (5-14 FG), 3 REB, 1 AST, 4 TOV
- June 25, 2024: 23 PTS (10-21 FG), 10 REB, 4 AST, 7 TOV
- July 2, 2024: 17 PTS (7-20 FG), 5 REB, 5 AST, 1 TOV
- Sept. 15, 2024: 13 PTS (4-21 FG), 2 REB, 8 AST, 3 TOV
Because the Commissioner’s Cup Championship does not count toward regular season stats or records, Ionescu shot 16-of-55 over three regular-season games against the Lynx. Because context is important, she did play through illness in the July 2 win, but it was also one of her better performances against Minnesota.
The most recent matchup saw Ionescu shoot an icy 19.0 percent from the field and 16.7 percent from 3-point range, an uncharacteristic showing from a player of her caliber.
WNBA
The shot chart tells part of the story, but again, context is important.
While many of Ionescu’s 12 attempts from beyond the arc were quality looks and she was able to get into the teeth of the defense, she had trouble finishing around the length of help defenders like Carleton, Collier and Alanna Smith.
Ionescu’s finishing opens up the rest of her game, including the passing that is crucial for New York’s offense. She managed to dish out eight assists in that game, and her ability to be efficient as a creator for herself and others will likely be what swings this series.
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Liberty vs. Lynx schedule
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| Thursday, Oct. 10 | Game 1 at Liberty | 8 p.m. | ESPN, Sling |
| Sunday, Oct. 13 | Game 2 at Liberty | 3 p.m. | ABC, Sling |
| Wednesday, Oct. 16 | Game 3 at Lynx | 8 p.m. | ESPN, Sling |
| Friday, Oct. 18 | Game 4 at Lynx* | 8 p.m. | ESPN, Sling |
| Sunday, Oct. 20 | Game 5 at Liberty* | 8 p.m. | ESPN, Sling |
*If necessary.
