Selection Sunday is approaching, but there is still room for chaos in the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
There is room for serious movement in the bracket heading into Friday’s action.
Start at the top. Will Cooper Flagg be OK? The Duke superstar suffered an ankle injury in the first half of Thursday’s ACC quarterfinal matchup against Georgia Tech and is questionable for an ACC semifinal matchup against rival North Carolina.
Speaking of the Tar Heels, is North Carolina off a tight bubble race? Indiana and Xavier both lost Thursday. Who will get squeezed out?
How awesome is the SEC tournament? Texas and Texas A&M played a double-overtime classic on Thursday, and that precedes what should be the most-exciting quarterfinal round in recent memory.
What about the old-guard coaches? Will Michigan State flex in the Big Ten tournament under Tom Izzo? Will St. John’s keep rolling in the Big East under Rick Pitino? All of this should set up a fantastic Championship Saturday.
Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are our No. 1 seeds heading into the weekend. Here is a closer look at the bubble:
Last Four In: Texas, Indiana, Boise State, North Carolina
First Four Out: Xavier, San Diego State, Ohio State, Colorado State
This year’s Final Four is April 5-7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Who is our Field of 68? Here is a closer look:
+- Clinched automatic bid
* – Projected automatic bid
** – Last four in
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections
No. 1 Seeds
*Auburn (27-4, 15-3 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 2, Net: 2. It’s a toss-up for the No. 1 overall seed after Auburn lost its last two regular-season games against Texas A&M and Alabama. Yet the Tigers have an impressive 15-4 record against Quad 1 that might be impossible for the committee to ignore. Will Sporting News Player of the Year Johni Broome lead back-to-back SEC tournament championship runs?
*Duke (29-3, 19-1 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 1, Net: 1. Duke beat Georgia Tech 78-70 in the ACC quarterfinals, but injuries to Cooper Flagg (ankle) and Maliq Brown (shoulder) are major concerns heading into the weekend and beyond. That will impact the argument with Auburn for the top overall seed as much as Duke’s 7-3 record against Quad 1.
MORE: Duke avoids cruel fate Cincinnati suffered with Kenyon Martin injury in 2000
*Houston (28-4, 19-1 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 3, Net: 3. Houston beat Colorado 77-68 in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Sporting News Coach of the Year Kelvin Sampson has molded another No. 1 seed, and that might be locked in with another trip to the Big 12 semifinals against BYU.
Florida (27-4, 14-4 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. The Gators have won nine of their last 10 games, and guard Walter Clayton averaged 22.5 points and eight assists in victories. Alijah Martin (14.5 ppg.) and Will Richard (13.3 ppg.) are part of that dynamic back-court that is capable of locking up a No. 1 seed this weekend.
BENDER: From football to fatherhood to the Final Four? Walter Clayton’s basketball journey
No. 2 Seeds
*Michigan State (26-5, 17-3 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 10. Michigan State is 12-4 against Quad 1 – the second-highest win total among Division I schools. The Spartans also have one Quad 2 loss, but does that matter? Tom Izzo has a chance to showcase the best team in the Big Ten, and they are squarely in the conversation for the last No. 1 seed.
Alabama (24-7, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 6. Alabama also has a case for a No. 1 seed with an 11-7 record against Quad 1 despite finishing 3-4 in their last seven games. The Crimson Tide could get into that mix with an SEC tournament championship run under Nate Oats, who accomplished that with Alabama in 2021 and 2023.
Tennessee (25-6, 12-6 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 5. Tennessee has a 9-6 record against Quad 1, and the Volunteers did not have a loss in Quads 2-4. That should translate into a No. 2 seed for the third time in six seasons under coach Rick Barnes.
*St. John’s (28-4, 18-2 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 15, Net: 16. Texas Tech could be projected on this line, too, but we like the Red Storm here under Rick Pitino if they win the Big East tournament. We are not as worried about the 4-4 record in Quad 1. We like the team more. St. John’s beat Butler 78-57 in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday.
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No. 3 Seeds
Texas Tech (25-7, 15-5 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 7. The Red Raiders might be the preferred option over St. John’s. Second-year coach Grant McCasland has the Red Raiders on the upswing with four victories in their last five games, and the rankings combination checks out.
Iowa State (24-9, 13-7 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 9. BYU beat Iowa State 96-92 in the Big 12 tournament, and that early exit likely will keep the Cyclones off the No. 2 line despite a 9-6 record in Quad 1. Iowa State will make its fourth straight tournament appearance under T.J. Otzelberger, and they have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in that stretch.
Maryland (24-7, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 13, Net: 11. The Terrapins continue to move up the rankings with a strong finish in Big Ten play that includes eight wins in their last 10 games. Freshman Derik Queen averages 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.
Kentucky (22-10, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 12. Otega Oweh hit a jumper with 0.5 seconds left to give the Wildcats a thrilling 85-84 victory against Oklahoma in the SEC quarterfinals. The Wildcats are one of just five schools with 10 Quad 1 vicxtories. Mark Pope continues to excel in Year 1.
No. 4 seeds
Texas A&M (22-10, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 17, Net: 17. The Aggies lost a 94-89 double-overtime thriller against rival Texas, which got the Longhorns off the bubble and opened the door for Kentucky to take a No. 3 seed. Texas A&M does have a 8-7 record against Quad 1.
Wisconsin (24-8, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 19. Wisconsin beat Northwestern 70-63 in the Big Ten tournament, a victory that props up a sneaky-good resume. The Badgers are 15-8 in Quads 1-2 and don’t have a bad loss. There is an opportunity to move up against UCLA on Friday.
Purdue (21-10, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 14, Net: 15. Trey Kaufman-Renn scored 30 points in a 76-71 victory against USC on Thursday, and that bumps the Boilermakers in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Purdue is 15-10 in Quads 1-2 and also does not have a bad loss.
Clemson (27-5, 18-2 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 19, Net: 22. The Tigers beat SMU 57-54 in a tight contest with the help of 21 points from Chase Hunter. Clemson is in the ACC semifinals, but they have a 4-2 record against Quad 1 opponents. The semifinal matchup against Louisville is a chance to improve on that record.
No. 5 seeds
Arizona (21-11, 13-5 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 16, Net: 13. Four Arizona players hit double figures in a 88-77 victory against Kansas in the Big 12 quarterfinals. That improves the Wildcats’ record to 9-9 against Quad 1 teams, and that could push them up to the No. 4 line.
Michigan (22-9, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 30, Net: 28. The Wolverines are 9-7 against Quad 1 – which is the same as UCLA and tied for second among Big Ten teams. Dusty May guided an impressive turnaround, but the Wolverines lost their last three regular-season games. Michigan shot 22.6% from 3-point range in those losses.
Oregon (24-8, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 32, Net: 29. Oregon beat Indiana 72-59 and shot 40% from 3-point range in the victory. The Ducks are 9-6 in Quad 1 and get their shot at regular-season Big Ten champion Michigan State on Friday.
Missouri (22-10, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 20, Net: 20. The Tigers beat Mississippi State 85-73 in the SEC tournament, and the Tigers’ resume is being under-valued a touch. Missouri has a 6-10 record against Quad 1. A matchup with Florida in the SEC quarterfinals should be high-scoring fun.
No. 6 seeds
BYU (24-8, 14-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 24, Net: 26. The Cougars won their last eight regular-season games, and a 96-92 victory against Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals will increase their profile. Richie Saunders led BYU with 23 points.
UCLA (22-9, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 25, Net: 23. UCLA won its last Pac-12 tournament in 2014. The Bruins have a 9-7 Quad 1 record and a top-four seed in the Big Ten tournament. There is room to move up the next three days.
Saint Mary’s (28-5, 17-1 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 22, Net: 21. The Gaels dropped from No. 5 to No. 6 after the 58-51 loss to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament. Saint Mary’s has a 4-3 record against Quad 1.
Ole Miss (22-10, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 27, Net: 27. Sean Pedulla hit a 3-pointer with 1.3 seconds left to secure a 83-80 victory against Arkansas. The Rebels own with a 6-9 record against Quad 1, but they do not have a loss outside Quad 2. Ole Miss faces Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals.
No. 7 seeds
Illinois (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 18, Net: 14. Illinois won its last three regular-season games – including impressive victories against Purdue and Michigan – and kept that momentum rolling with a 106-94 victory against Iowa in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Are the Illini peaking at the right time?
Louisville (26-6, 18-2 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 23, Net: 25. The Cardinals survived a scare in a 75-73 victory against Stanford with the help of Chucky Hepburn’s buzzer-beater; a victory that puts Louisville in the ACC semifinals. Terrence Edwards Jr. scored 25 points for the Cardinals. Will Pat Kelsey lead an ACC championship run in Year 1?
Kansas (21-12, 11-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 21, Net: 18. Kansas is a prime candidate to be over-seeded after splitting its last 10 games. That included three losses in four tries against ranked teams. Will the Jayhawks fall to the No. 8 line? Bill Self has a challenge heading into the tournament.
+Gonzaga (25-8, 14-4 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 8. The West Coast Conference champions are tough to seed. Will they be put a line or two below regular-season champion Saint Mary’s? Gonzaga ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.
No. 8 seeds
Marquette (23-9, 13-7 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 26, Net: 24. Kam Jones scored 28 points in a dramatic 89-87 victory against Xavier in the Big East quarterfinals, a victory that could push the Golden Eagles up knowing they are 5-7 against Quad 1. Marquette lost two games to St. John’s by a combined total of eight points this season. Game on.
Mississippi State (21-11, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 29, Net: 32. The Bulldogs’ late-season slide – which led to losses in five of their last seven games – continued against Missouri in the SEC tournament. That means sitting on the No. 8 line for the second consecutive season.
*Memphis (26-5, 16-2 American)
Resume: KenPom: 49, Net: 47. The Tigers begin American Athletic Conference tournament play Friday. Tigers coach Penny Hardaway is in line for a third straight tournament appearance, and a strong 6-1 Quad 1 record is strong. Bubble teams need Memphis to win the AAC.
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UConn (23-9, 14-6 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 34, Net 31. The Huskies shook off Villanova in a 73-56 victory to set up a Big East semifinal matchup against Creighton. Coach Danny Hurley has UConn on a five-game winning streak.
Rest of the field …
No. 9 seeds
*New Mexico (26-6, 17-3 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 41, Net: 41.
Creighton (23-9, 15-5 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 36, Net: 38.
Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 40, Net: 39.
Utah State (26-6, 15-5 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 52, Net: 37.
No. 10 seeds
Baylor (19-14, 10-10 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 28, Net: 30.
Georgia (20-12, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 33, Net: 34.
West Virginia (19-13, 10-10 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 54, Net: 51.
+Drake (30-3, 17-3 OVC)
Resume: KenPom: 58, Net: 56.
No. 11 seeds
*VCU (25-6, 15-3 Atlantic-10)
Resume: KenPom: 31, Net: 33.
*UC-San Diego (28-4, 18-2 Big West)
Resume: KenPom: 39, Net: 35.
Vanderbilt (20-12, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 48, Net: 47.
Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 38, Net: 43.
No. 12 seeds
+McNeese (27-6, 19-1 Southland)
Resume: KenPom: 60, Net: 58.
*Liberty (26-6, 13-5 C-USA)
Resume: KenPom: 62, Net: 64.
**Texas (19-14, 6-12 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 44, Net 41.
**Indiana (19-13, 10-10 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 45, Net: 52.
**Boise State (23-9, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 49, Net: 45.
**North Carolina (21-12, 13-7 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 35, Net: 36.
No. 13 seeds
*Yale (20-7, 13-1 Ivy)
Resume: KenPom: 73, Net: 71.
+High Point (29-5, 14-2 Big South)
Resume: KenPom: 80, Net: 84.
+Lipscomb (25-9, 14-4 Atlantic Sun)
Resume: KenPom: 80, Net: 84.
*Akron (26-6, 17-1 MAC)
Resume: KenPom: 100, Net: 98.
No. 14 seeds
+Troy (23-10, 13-5 Sun Belt)
Resume: KenPom: 96, Net: 100.
+UNC-Wilmington (27-7, 14-4 CAA)
Resume: KenPom: 107, Net: 102.
*Utah Valley (24-7, 15-1 WAC)
Resume: KenPom: 120, Net: 107.
+Robert Morris (26-8, 15-5 Horizon)
Resume: KenPom: 140, Net: 140.
No. 15 seeds
+Montana (25-9, 15-3 Big Sky)
Resume: KenPom: 136, Net: 144.
+Wofford (19-15, 10-8 Southern)
Resume: KenPom: 118, Net: 131.
*Bryant (22-11, 14-2 America East)
Resume: KenPom: 154, Net: 149.
+Omaha (21-12, 13-3 Summit)
Resume: KenPom: 156, Net: 163.
No. 16 seeds
*Norfolk State (22-10, 11-3 MEAC)
Resume: KenPom: 177, Net: 185.
*Quinnipiac (20-12, 15-5 MAAC)
Resume: KenPom: 208, Net: 188.
+**SIU Edwardsville (22-11, 13-7 OVC)
Resume: KenPom: 218, Net: 215.
+**American (22-12, 13-5 Patriot)
Resume: KenPom: 237, Net: 227.
**Jackson State (15-17, 14-4 SWAC)
Resume: KenPom: 250, Net: 271.
+**Saint Francis, Pa. (16-17, 8-8 Northeast)
Resume: KenPom: 311, Net: 297.
Bubble watch
Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 42, Net: 45. The Musketeers lost 87-85 to Marquette in a heart-breaker, and that pushes the Musketeers back to the bubble. Can they overcome a 1-8 record against Quad 1 and get in ahead of either Indiana or North Carolina?
San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 43, Net: 49. The Aztecs lost to Boise State 62-52 in what felt like a play-in game for the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State has a 3-5 record in Quad 1. Is that good enough for the conference to get a fourth team in?
Ohio State (17-15, 9-11 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 37, Net: 40. Will the Big Ten get a 10th team in the field? The Buckeyes lost to Iowa 77-70 in the Big Ten tournament. Ohio State does have a 6-11 record against Quad 1, they also have four Quad 2 losses.
Colorado State (23-9, 16-4 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 51, Net: 55. The Rams beat Nevada 67-59 to keep their tournament hopes alive, and that intrigue on the Mountain West Conference bubble will continue on Friday. Colorado State has the lowest ranking combination of the teams on this list.
