Illinois suffered its first loss to then-No. 9 Penn State, 21-7, to cap off Week 5. On Sunday, Illinois took a slight dip in the AP Top 25 rankings from No. 19 to No. 24, entering its bye week.
Despite the loss, coach Bret Bielema and the Illini still have a chance to qualify for a bowl game. Illinois has already won against three ranked opponents and earned a signature road win against Dylan Raiola and the Nebraska Cornhuskers 10 days ago.
According to the latest Kelley Ford rankings projections, Illinois winning eight games for the second time in three years is highly likely at 62 percent. Looking at its remaining schedule, it makes sense why this is the case.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer is off to a stellar junior season thus far, allowing only one interception while tossing 11 touchdowns and throwing for 1,047 total yards. These numbers are a stark contrast from last season, where Illinois finished 5-7, and Altmyer was not fully healthy by mid-November. The Illini also have a stingy defense, which ranks 34th out of 133 FBS programs.
Illinois has a manageable schedule moving forward
Reviewing the data, it’s hard not to take it for what it’s worth. When Illinois returns from its bye, it faces a depleted Purdue team, which is off to an abysmal 1-3 start. The Boilmakers decided to make a change Sunday when it fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. It was likely for a good reason, considering its lone win thus far was against Indiana State. Notre Dame won in a rout, 66-7, in West Lafayette nearly three weeks ago, racking up 364 rushing yards.
That said, the Illini are given an 86 percent chance to beat Purdue. Michigan will be tougher considering its offense has shown steady improvements since making a quarterback change. The only two games outside of the Wolverines that Illinois won’t be favored in, most likely, are Oregon and Rutgers. Rutgers is off to a 4-0 start with its toughest remaining game against USC on Friday, Oct. 25, avoiding Michigan and Ohio State this year.
Oregon is playing with house money and a chance to go unbeaten.
Although there are still over two months of the season remaining, Illinois is in a prime position to pick up a few more quality wins.
